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Optimal Precautionary Reserves for Low-Income Countries: A Cost-Benefit Analysis

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  • Ms. Era Dabla-Norris
  • Mr. Jun I Kim
  • Ms. Kazuko Shirono

Abstract

This paper develops a cost-benefit approach that helps to quantify the optimal level of international reserves in low-income countries, focusing on the role of reserves in preventing and mitigating absorption drops triggered by large external shocks. The approach is applied to a sample of 49 LICs over the period 1980-2008 to yield estimates of the likelihood and severity of a crisis. The calibration results suggest that the standard metric of three months of imports is inadequate for countries with fixed exchange rate regimes. The results also highlight the role of overall policy frameworks and availability of Fund-support in determining optimal reserve levels, raising questions about the uniform applicability of standard rules of thumb across countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Mr. Jun I Kim & Ms. Kazuko Shirono, 2011. "Optimal Precautionary Reserves for Low-Income Countries: A Cost-Benefit Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2011/249, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2011/249
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. GBANDI, Tchapo, 2016. "Ratios d’adéquation et fonction de demande des réserves de change dans les pays de l’UEMOA [Title: Foreign reserve adequacy ratios and reserve demand function in WAEMU countries]," MPRA Paper 82145, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Jun 2016.
    2. Dabla-Norris, Era & Bal Gündüz, Yasemin, 2014. "Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries: A Vulnerability Index," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 360-378.
    3. International Monetary Fund, 2015. "Kingdom of Swaziland: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Kingdom of Swaziland," IMF Staff Country Reports 2015/353, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Quy Ta & Yothin Jinjarak & Ilan Noy, 2022. "“How Do Shocks Affect International Reserves? A Quasi-Experiment of Earthquakes”," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(5), pages 945-971, November.
    5. Zhichao Zhang & Frankie Chau & Li Xie, 2013. "Accumulation of large foreign reserves in China: a behavioural perspective," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 85-108, March.
    6. Mile Bošnjak & Vlatka Bilas & Gordana Kordić, 2020. "Determinants Of Foreign Exchange Reserves In Serbia And North Macedonia," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 65(226), pages 103-120, July – Se.
    7. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "International Reserves in Low Income Countries: Have they Served As Buffers?," IMF Working Papers 2012/007, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Neda Popovska-Kamnar & Miso Nikolov & Artan Sulejmani, 2016. "Determinants Of The International Reserves In The Republic Of Macedonia," Journal Articles, Center For Economic Analyses, pages 51-61, December.
    9. Winston Moore & Adrian Glean, 2016. "Foreign exchange reserve adequacy and exogenous shocks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(6), pages 490-501, February.

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