Understanding Patterns of Economic Growth: Searching for Hills among Plateaus, Mountains, and Plains
The historical path of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in the United States is, except for the interlude of the Great Depression, well characterized by reasonably stable exponential trend growth with modest cyclical deviations: graphically, it is a modestly sloping, slightly bumpy hill. However, almost nothing that is true of U.S. GDP per capita (or that of other countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) is true of the growth experience of developing countries. A single time trend does not adequately characterize the evolution of GDP per capita in most developing countries. Instability in growth rates over time for a single country is great, relative to both the average level of growth and the variance across countries. These shifts in growth rates lead to distinct patterns. While some countries have steady growth (hills and steep hills), others have rapid growth followed by stagnation (plateaus), rapid growth followed by decline (mountains) or even catastrophic falls (cliffs), continuous stagnation (plains), or steady decline (valleys). Volatility, however defined, is also much greater in developing than in industrial countries. These stylized facts about the instability and volatility of growth rates in developing countries imply that the exploding econometric growth literature that makes use of the panel nature of data is unlikely to be informative. In contrast, research into what initiates (or halts) episodes of growth has high potential.
Volume (Year): 14 (2000)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Oxford University Press, Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP, UK|
Phone: (202) 477-1234
Fax: 01865 267 985
Web page: http://wber.oxfordjournals.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.oup.co.uk/journals|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ross Levine, 1997.
"Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 688-726, June.
- Levine, Ross, 1996. "Financial development and economic growth : views and agenda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1678, The World Bank.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1986.
"Power in Econometric Applications,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
800, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Pritchett, Lant, 1996. "Mind your P's and Q's : the cost of public investment is not the value of public capital," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1660, The World Bank.
- Xavier X. Sala-i-Martin, 1997.
"I Just Ran Four Million Regressions,"
NBER Working Papers
6252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hongyi Li & Lyn Squire & Tao Zhang & Heng-fu Zou, 1999.
"A Data Set on Income Distribution,"
CEMA Working Papers
575, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
- Nazrul Islam, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-1170.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992.
"A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
- Ross Levine & Sara Zervos, .
"Stock markets, banks and economic growth ,"
CERF Discussion Paper Series
95-11, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
- Ben-David, D. & Papell, D.H., 1996.
"Slowdowns and Meltdowns: Post-War Growth Evidence from 74 Countries,"
9-96, Tel Aviv.
- Dan Ben-David & David H. Papell, 1998. "Slowdowns And Meltdowns: Postwar Growth Evidence From 74 Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 561-571, November.
- Dan Ben-David & David H. Papell, 1997. "Slowdowns and Meltdowns: Postwar Growth Evidence from 74 Countries," NBER Working Papers 6266, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ben-David, Dan & Papell, David, 1995. "Slowdowns and Meltdowns: Post-war Growth Evidence from 74 Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 1111, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Danny Quah, 1996. "Twin Peaks: Growth and Convergence in Models of Distribution Dynamics," CEP Discussion Papers dp0280, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Anne O. Krueger, 1978. "Liberalization Attempts and Consequences," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number krue78-1, September.
- Kamin, S.B., 1988. "Devaluation, External Balance, And Macroeconomic Performance: A Look At The Numbers," Princeton Studies in International Economics 62, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
- Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116.
- Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1994.
"Is Inequality Harmful for Growth?,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 600-621, June.
- Stephen Knack & Philip Keefer, 1997. "Does Social Capital Have an Economic Payoff? A Cross-Country Investigation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(4), pages 1251-1288.
- Quah, Danny, 1996.
"Twin Peaks: Growth and Convergence in Models of Distribution Dynamics,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1355, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Quah, Danny T, 1996. "Twin Peaks: Growth and Convergence in Models of Distribution Dynamics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 1045-55, July.
- Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1998.
"Inflation crises and long-run growth,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 3-26, February.
- Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output per Worker than Others?," NBER Working Papers 6564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Danny Quah, 1996. "Twin peaks : growth and convergence in models of distribution dynamics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2278, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1993.
"Income Distribution, Political Instability, and Investment,"
NBER Working Papers
4486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alesina, Alberto & Perotti, Roberto, 1996. "Income distribution, political instability, and investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1203-1228, June.
- Klaus Deininger & Lyn Squire, 1996.
"A New Data Set Measuring Income Inequality,"
CEMA Working Papers
512, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
- Dani Rodrik, 1996. "Understanding Economic Policy Reform," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 9-41, March.
- Kristin J. Forbes, 2000. "A Reassessment of the Relationship between Inequality and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 869-887, September.
- Isham, Jonathan & Kaufmann, Daniel & Pritchett, Lant H, 1997. "Civil Liberties, Democracy, and the Performance of Government Projects," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 11(2), pages 219-42, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:wbecrv:v:14:y:2000:i:2:p:221-50. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.