IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Mesurer l’instabilité macroéconomique - Applications aux données de recettes d’exportation, 1970-2005

  • Joël CARIOLLE

    ()

    (Ferdi)

La littérature sur l’instabilité macroéconomique couvre un champ extrêmement vaste qui se révèle par le spectre très large de mesures utilisées pour appréhender ce phénomène. Le choix de la mesure de l’instabilité macroéconomique apparait généralement peu discuté sous le prétexte que les différentes méthodes, basées sur la stationnarisation des séries, résultent en des scores d’instabilité fortement corrélés entre eux. Pourtant, si effectivement ces méthodes convergent lorsque seule l’ampleur moyenne d’une distribution autour d’une valeur de référence est analysée, elles divergent significativement quand on s’intéresse à son asymétrie ou à sa voussure (occurrence des déviations extrêmes). Dans cet article, nous proposons une revue de la littérature sur le sujet et présentons les principales méthodes de calcul de l’instabilité. A partir de données sur les recettes d’exportation de 134 pays de 1970 à 2005, nous comparons ces méthodes et analysons leurs propriétés. Nous distinguons notamment les mesures d’ampleur de l’instabilité, des mesures d’asymétrie, et d’occurrence des déviations extrêmes.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.ferdi.fr/sites/www.ferdi.fr/files/publication/fichiers/Indicateur14_Cariolle_web.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by FERDI in its series Working Papers with number I14.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Mar 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fdi:wpaper:638
Contact details of provider: Phone: +33473177542
Web page: http://ferdi.fr/

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2005. "Policy Volatility, Institutions and Economic Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 5388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December.
  3. Miklos Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2005. "Volatility and development," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 5312, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  4. Paolo Mauro & Törbjörn I. Becker, 2006. "Output Drops and the Shocks That Matter," IMF Working Papers 06/172, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Guillaumont, Patrick & Jeanneney, Sylviane Guillaumont & Brun, Jean-Francois, 1999. "How Instability Lowers African Growth," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 8(1), pages 87-107, March.
  6. Gelb, A H, 1979. "On the Definition and Measurement of Instability and the Costs of Buffering Export Fluctuations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(1), pages 149-62, January.
  7. Romain Ranciere & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2005. "Systemic Crises and Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 1451, CESifo Group Munich.
  8. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  9. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2010. "The Risk Content of Exports: A Portfolio View of International Trade," NBER Working Papers 16005, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Malik, Adeel & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2009. "The geography of output volatility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 163-178, November.
  11. Norman V. Loayza & Claudio Raddatz, 2007. "The Structural Determinants of External Vulnerability," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 21(3), pages 359-387, October.
  12. Konya, Laszlo, 2004. "Unit-Root, Cointegration and Granger Causality Test Results for Export and Growth in OECD Countries," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(2), pages 67-94.
  13. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
  14. Dani Rodrik, 1996. "Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?," NBER Working Papers 5537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James Robinson & Yunyong Thaicharoen, 2002. "Institutional Causes, Macroeconomic Symptoms: Volatility, Crises and Growth," NBER Working Papers 9124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
  17. William Easterly & Michael Kremer & Lant Pritchett & Lawrence H. Summers, 1993. "Good Policy or Good Luck? Country Growth Performance and Temporary Shocks," NBER Working Papers 4474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Jan Dehn, 2000. "Commodity price uncertainty in developing countries," CSAE Working Paper Series 2000-12, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  19. Jean Imbs, 2006. "Growth and Volatility," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 06-09, Swiss Finance Institute.
  20. Christophe Hurlin & Valérie Mignon, 2006. "Une Synthèse des Tests de Racine Unitaire sur Données de Panel," Post-Print halshs-00078770, HAL.
  21. Norman V. Loayza & Romain Rancière & Luis Servén & Jaume Ventura, 2007. "Macroeconomic Volatility and Welfare in Developing Countries: An Introduction," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 21(3), pages 343-357, October.
  22. Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1981. "Spurious Periodicity in Inappropriately Detrended Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 741-51, May.
  23. Raddatz, Claudio, 2007. "Are external shocks responsible for the instability of output in low-income countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 155-187, September.
  24. Chris Elbers & Jan Willem Gunning & Bill Kinsey, 2004. "Growth and Risk: Methodology and Micro Evidence," Development and Comp Systems 0408014, EconWPA.
  25. Teame Ghirmay & Subhash Sharma & Richard Grabowski, 1999. "Export instability, income terms of trade instability and growth: causal analyses," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 209-229.
  26. Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, 1997. "Do the Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 53, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
  27. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1993. "Low frequency filtering and real business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 207-231.
  28. Pritchett, Lant, 2000. "Understanding Patterns of Economic Growth: Searching for Hills among Plateaus, Mountains, and Plains," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 221-50, May.
  29. Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, 2005. "Democracy, Volatility, and Economic Development," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 348-361, May.
  30. Philippe Aghion & George-Marios Angeletos & Abhijit Banerjee & Kalina Manova, 2005. "Volatility and Growth: Credit Constraints and Productivity-Enhancing Investment," NBER Working Papers 11349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  31. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
  32. P. Guillaumont & J.-L Combes & S. Guillaumont Jeanneney & P. Motel Combes, 2000. "Ouverture sur l'extérieur et instabilité des taux de croissance," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 15(1), pages 3-33.
  33. Agustín Maravall & Ana del Río, 2001. "Time Aggregation and the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0108, Banco de Espa�a.
  34. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 1999. "Volatility and Investment: Interpreting Evidence from Developing Countries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 66(262), pages 157-79, May.
  35. Dehn, Jan, 2000. "Commodity price uncertainty in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2426, The World Bank.
  36. Robert Lensink & Oliver Morrissey, 2006. "Foreign Direct Investment: Flows, Volatility, and the Impact on Growth," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 478-493, 08.
  37. Jan Dehn, 2000. "Commodity Price Uncertainty in Developing Countries," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2000-12, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  38. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  39. Patrick Guillaumont, 2009. "An Economic Vulnerability Index: Its Design and Use for International Development Policy," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 193-228.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fdi:wpaper:638. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Vincent Mazenod)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.