IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

An Economic Vulnerability Index: Its Design and Use for International Development Policy

  • Guillaumont, Patrick
Registered author(s):

    In response to the need expressed by the UN General Assembly, an economic vulnerability index (EVI) has been defined by the Committee for Development Policy. The present paper, which refers to this index, first examines how a structural economic vulnerability index can be designed for the low-income countries in particular. It recalls the conceptual and empirical grounds of the index, considers the structure of the present EVI, its sensitivity to methodological choices with respect to averaging, as well as related possible improvements, and briefly compares the levels and trends of EVI in various country groups, using a new database from a ?retrospective EVI?. The paper examines how EVI can be used for international development policy, underlining two main purposes: first?the purpose for which EVI was initially designed?is the identification of the least developed countries (LDCs) that are allowed to receive some preferential treatment in aid and trade matters. EVI, in addition to income per capita and human capital, is one of the three complementary criteria a country needs to meet in order to be perceived as a LDC, and consequently it cannot be the sole criterion for countries wishing to avoid exiting the LDC list. And second, EVI is to be used, in addition to other traditional measures, as a criterion for aid allocation between developing countries. We argue that such an inclusion is legitimate for both reasons of effectiveness and equity. The two purposes are presented as complementary.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.wider.unu.edu/stc/repec/pdfs/rp2008/rp2008-99.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) in its series Working Paper Series with number RP2008/99.

    as
    in new window

    Length: 36 pages
    Date of creation: 2008
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:rp2008-99
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Katajanokanlaituri 6B, 00160 Helsinki
    Phone: +358-9-6159911
    Fax: +358-9-61599333
    Web page: http://www.wider.unu.edu/
    Email:


    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December.
    2. Serven, Luis, 1997. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty and Private Investment: Analytical Issues and Some Lessons for Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 6(3), pages 229-68, Supplemen.
    3. Chauvet, Lisa & Guillaumont, Patrick, 2009. "Aid, volatility, and growth again : when aid volatility matters and when it does not," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/5400, Paris Dauphine University.
    4. Patrick Guillaumont & Sylviane Guillaumont Jeanneney & Jacky Amprou, 2011. "Aid Selectivity According to Augmented Criteria," Working Papers halshs-00562658, HAL.
    5. Jean-Louis ARCAND & Patrick GUILLAUMONT & Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY, 1999. "Ethnicity, Communication and Growth," Working Papers 199922, CERDI.
    6. Paul Collier & P. Guillaumont & S. Guillaumont Jeanneney & Jan Willem Gunning, 1999. "Reforming Stabex," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(5), pages 669-682, 07.
    7. Andrew Berg & Catherine Pattillo, 1999. "Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1.
    8. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James & Thaicharoen, Yunyong, 2003. "Institutional causes, macroeconomic symptoms: volatility, crises and growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 49-123, January.
    9. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 997-1032, October.
    10. Patrick GUILLAUMONT & Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY & Lisa CHAUVET & Pierre JACQUET & Bertrand SAVOYE, 2003. "Attenuating through Aid the Vulnerability to Price Shocks," Working Papers 200325, CERDI.
    11. Glezakos, Constantine, 1984. "Export Instability and Economic Growth: Reply," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(3), pages 615-23, April.
    12. Jean-François BRUN & Céline CARRERE & Patrick GUILLAUMONT & Jaime MELO DE, 2002. "Has Distance Died? Evidence from a Panel Gravity Model," Working Papers 200215, CERDI.
    13. Rodrik, Dani, 1999. " Where Did All the Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict, and Growth Collapses," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 385-412, December.
    14. A. K. Fosu, 2001. "Economic Fluctuations and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Importance of Import Instability," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 71-85.
    15. Richard Breen & Cecilia García-Peñalosa, 2005. "Income Inequality and Macroeconomic Volatility: An Empirical Investigation," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 380-398, 08.
    16. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Briguglio, Lino, 1995. "Small island developing states and their economic vulnerabilities," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(9), pages 1615-1632, September.
    18. Collier, Paul & Dollar, David, 2002. "Aid allocation and poverty reduction," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(8), pages 1475-1500, September.
    19. Lutz, Matthias, 1994. "The effects of volatility in the terms of trade on output growth: New evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(12), pages 1959-1975, December.
    20. Julie SUBERVIE, 2006. "The impact of world price instability on agricultural supply according to several macroeconomic factors," Working Papers 200604, CERDI.
    21. Sylviane Guillaumont Jeanneney & Kangni Kpodar, 2005. "Financial Development, Financial Instability and Poverty," CSAE Working Paper Series 2005-09, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    22. David Dollar & Craig Burnside, 2000. "Aid, Policies, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 847-868, September.
    23. Collier, Paul & Hoeffler, Anke, 2002. "Aid, policy, and growth in post-conflict societies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2902, The World Bank.
    24. Ale Bulir & A. Javier Hamann, 2003. "Aid Volatility: An Empirical Assessment," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(1), pages 4.
    25. Bulír, Ales & Hamann, A. Javier, 2008. "Volatility of Development Aid: From the Frying Pan into the Fire?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2048-2066, October.
    26. Lisa CHAUVET & Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2003. "Aid and Growth Revisited: Policy, Economic Vulnerability and Political Instability," Working Papers 200327, CERDI.
    27. Patrick Guillaumont & Catherine Korachais, 2011. "When unstable, growth is less pro poor," Working Papers halshs-00556672, HAL.
    28. Easterly, William & Kraay, Aart, 2000. "Small States, Small Problems? Income, Growth, and Volatility in Small States," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2013-2027, November.
    29. Patrick GUILLAUMONT & Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY & Jean-François BRUN, 1997. "How Instability Lowers African Growth ?," Working Papers 199712, CERDI.
    30. Patrick GUILLAUMONT & Jean-Louis COMBES, 2000. "Commodity Price Volatility, Vulnerability and Development," Working Papers 200015, CERDI.
    31. Barry P. Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2003. "The Empirics of Growth: An Update," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 113-206.
    32. Gyimah-Brempong, Kwabena, 1991. "Export Instability and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(4), pages 815-28, July.
    33. Julie SUBERVIE & Catherine KORACHAIS & Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2006. "How Macroeconomic Instability Lowers Child Survival," Working Papers 200639, CERDI.
    34. Patrick Guillaumont & Rachid Laajaj, 2011. "When instability increases the effectiveness of aid projects," Working Papers halshs-00557176, HAL.
    35. Collier, Paul & Dollar, David, 2001. "Can the World Cut Poverty in Half? How Policy Reform and Effective Aid Can Meet International Development Goals," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1787-1802, November.
    36. Chris Milner & Thomas Weyman-Jones, 2003. "Relative National Efficiency and Country Size: Evidence for Developing Countries," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 1-14, February.
    37. Catherine ARAUJO BONJEAN & Jean-Louis COMBES & Pascale COMBES MOTEL, 1999. "The Economic Consequences of Export Instability in Developing Countries: A Survey," Working Papers 199926, CERDI.
    38. Ghura, Dhaneshwar & Grennes, Thomas J., 1993. "The real exchange rate and macroeconomic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 155-174, October.
    39. Hnatkovska, Viktoria & Loayza, Norman, 2004. "Volatility and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3184, The World Bank.
    40. de Janvry, Alain & Sadoulet, Elisabeth, 2000. "Growth, Poverty, and Inequality in Latin America: A Causal Analysis, 1970-94," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 46(3), pages 267-87, September.
    41. P. Guillaumont & J.-L Combes & S. Guillaumont Jeanneney & P. Motel Combes, 2000. "Ouverture sur l'extérieur et instabilité des taux de croissance," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 15(1), pages 3-33.
    42. P. Guillaumont & L. Chauvet, 2001. "Aid and Performance: A Reassessment," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 66-92.
    43. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 1999. "Volatility and Investment: Interpreting Evidence from Developing Countries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 66(262), pages 157-79, May.
    44. Christopher L. Gilbert & Alexandra Tabova, 2005. "Can we link concessional debt service to commodity prices?," Department of Economics Working Papers 0508, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    45. G. K. Helleiner, 1996. "Why Small Countries Worry: Neglected Issues in Current Analyses of the Benefits and Costs for Small Countries of Integrating with Large Ones," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(6), pages 759-764, November.
    46. Bleaney, Michael & Greenaway, David, 2001. "The impact of terms of trade and real exchange rate volatility on investment and growth in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 491-500, August.
    47. Dawe, David, 1996. "A new look at the effects of export instability on investment and growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(12), pages 1905-1914, December.
    48. Alan Winters, L. & Martins, Pedro M. G., 2004. "When comparative advantage is not enough: business costs in small remote economies," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(03), pages 347-383, November.
    49. Bleaney, Michael & Fielding, David, 2002. "Exchange rate regimes, inflation and output volatility in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 233-245, June.
    50. Adams, Richard Jr., 2004. "Economic Growth, Inequality and Poverty: Estimating the Growth Elasticity of Poverty," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 1989-2014, December.
    51. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
    52. McGillivray, Mark & Feeny, Simon, 2008. "Aid and Growth in Fragile States," Working Paper Series RP2008/03, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    53. Mendoza, Enrique G., 1997. "Terms-of-trade uncertainty and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 323-356, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:rp2008-99. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bruck Tadesse)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.