IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cdi/wpaper/151.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Ouverture, vulnérabilité et développement

Author

Listed:
  • Patrick GUILLAUMONT

    (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International(CERDI))

Abstract

This paper gives a conceptual overview of the openness and vulnerability, sharing which in both cases respectively depends on economic policy and on structural factors, independent from policy. It focuses on openness policy, proposed to be measured by the residual of an openness function estimated only from structural factors, and on structural vulnerability, proposed to be measured from indicators reflecting the size of the shocks and the exposure to them. Some joint effects of an openness policy and of structural vulnerability are then presented, relying on several previous cross-section regressions and summarized on six proposals : 1/ whereas economic growth is raised by export growth, it is lowered by export instability, 2/ vulnerability (instability) affects more total factor productivity than capital accumulation, 3/ structural vulnerability to a large extent operates through economic policy intermediary variables, 4/ negative effects of export instability are dampened by an open policy, 5/ they are also dampened by foreign aid, 6/ an appropriate measurement of macroeconomic performance both reflecting the quality (openness) of the policy and taking into account structural vulnerability, can be used as a criterion for aid allocation.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2001. "Ouverture, vulnérabilité et développement," Working Papers 200103, CERDI.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdi:wpaper:151
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://publi.cerdi.org/ed/2001/2001.03.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 1999. "Volatility and Investment: Interpreting Evidence from Developing Countries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 66(262), pages 157-179, May.
    2. Guillaumont, Patrick & Jeanneney, Sylviane Guillaumont & Brun, Jean-Francois, 1999. "How Instability Lowers African Growth," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 8(1), pages 87-107, March.
    3. Shang-Jin Wei, 2000. "Natural openness and good government," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2411, The World Bank.
    4. Knudsen, Odin K. & Yotopoulos, Pan A., 1976. "A Transitory Income Approach to Export Instability," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, vol. 15(1), pages 1-18.
    5. Lim, David, 1980. "Income Distribution, Export Instability, and Savings Behavior," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(2), pages 359-364, January.
    6. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
    7. Robert Lensink & Howard White, 2000. "Assessing Aid: A Manifesto for Aid in the 21st Century?," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 5-18.
    8. P. Guillaumont & L. Chauvet, 2001. "Aid and Performance: A Reassessment," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 66-92.
    9. Rodrik, Dani, 1999. "Where Did All the Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict, and Growth Collapses," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 385-412, December.
    10. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 997-1032, October.
    11. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
    12. J.-L Combes & P. Guillaumont & S. Guillaumont Jeanneney & P. Motel Combes, 2000. "Ouverture sur l'extérieur et instabilité des taux de croissance," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 15(1), pages 3-33.
    13. Bussiere, Matthieu & Mulder, Christian, 2000. "Political Instability and Economic Vulnerability," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(4), pages 309-330, October.
    14. Guillaumont, Patrick & Guillaumont, Sylviane & Plane, Patrick, 1988. "Participating in African monetary unions: An alternative evaluation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 569-576, May.
    15. Richard Breen & Cecilia García‐Peñalosa, 2005. "Income Inequality and Macroeconomic Volatility: An Empirical Investigation," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 380-398, August.
    16. David Dollar & Craig Burnside, 2000. "Aid, Policies, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 847-868, September.
    17. Dawe, David, 1996. "A new look at the effects of export instability on investment and growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(12), pages 1905-1914, December.
    18. Edwards, Sebastian, 1998. "Openness, Productivity and Growth: What Do We Really Know?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(447), pages 383-398, March.
    19. Henrik Hansen & Finn Tarp, 2000. "Aid effectiveness disputed," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 375-398, April.
    20. Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 1999. "On The Economic Vulnerability Of Low Income Countries révisé, cf 2000.16," Working Papers 199916, CERDI.
    21. Andrew Berg & Catherine Pattillo, 1999. "Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1-1.
    22. repec:dgr:rugsom:99e23 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Collier, Paul & Guillaumont, Patrick & Guillaumont, Sylviane & Gunning, Jan Willem, 1997. "Redesigning conditionality," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1399-1407, September.
    24. Gyimah-Brempong, Kwabena, 1991. "Export Instability and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(4), pages 815-828, July.
    25. Francisco Serranito, 2001. "L'impact de L'ouverture sur la Croissance et la Convergence : Un Examen Empirique," Post-Print halshs-00174186, HAL.
    26. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
    27. Francisco Rodríguez & Dani Rodrik, 2001. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 261-338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. repec:dgr:rugccs:199902 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Catherine ARAUJO BONJEAN & Jean-Louis COMBES & Pascale COMBES MOTEL, 1999. "The Economic Consequences of Export Instability in Developing Countries: A Survey," Working Papers 199926, CERDI.
    30. Robert Lensink & Hong Bo & Elmer Sterken, 1999. "Does uncertainty affect economic growth? An empirical analysis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 135(3), pages 379-396, September.
    31. Glezakos, Constantine, 1984. "Export Instability and Economic Growth: Reply," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(3), pages 615-623, April.
    32. Paul Collier & Jan Willem Gunning, 1999. "Why Has Africa Grown Slowly?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 3-22, Summer.
    33. Dollar, David, 1992. "Outward-Oriented Developing Economies Really Do Grow More Rapidly: Evidence from 95 LDCs, 1976-1985," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(3), pages 523-544, April.
    34. Ghura, Dhaneshwar & Grennes, Thomas J., 1993. "The real exchange rate and macroeconomic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 155-174, October.
    35. Richard Breen, 1999. "Income Inequality and Macroeconomic Volatility: An Empirical Investigation," Economics Series Working Papers 1999-W20, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2000. "On the Economic Vulnerability of Low Income Countries," Working Papers 200016, CERDI.
    2. Jean‐Louis Combes & Patrick Guillaumont, 2002. "Commodity Price Volatility, Vulnerability and Development," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 20(1), pages 25-39, March.
    3. Patrick Guillaumont, 2009. "An Economic Vulnerability Index: Its Design and Use for International Development Policy," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 193-228.
    4. Patrick Guillaumont, 2010. "Assessing the Economic Vulnerability of Small Island Developing States and the Least Developed Countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(5), pages 828-854.
    5. Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2007. "EVI and its Use. Design of an Economic Vulnerability Index and its Use for International Development Policy," Working Papers 200714, CERDI.
    6. Jean-Louis COMBES & Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2000. "Volatilité des prix des produits primaires, vulnérabilité et développement," Working Papers 200014, CERDI.
    7. Patrick Guillaumont, 2011. "EVI and its Use. Design of an Economic Vulnerability Index and its Use for International Development Policy," CERDI Working papers halshs-00557091, HAL.
    8. Patrick Guillaumont, 2011. "An Economic Vulnerability Index: Its Design and Use for International Development Policy," CERDI Working papers halshs-00554328, HAL.
    9. Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 1999. "On The Economic Vulnerability Of Low Income Countries révisé, cf 2000.16," Working Papers 199916, CERDI.
    10. Patrick Guillaumont, 2010. "Assessing the Economic Vulnerability of Small Island Developing States and Least Developed Countries," Post-Print hal-00594797, HAL.
    11. Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2009. "Aid effectiveness for poverty reduction: macroeconomic overview and emerging issues," Working Papers P05, FERDI.
    12. L. ALAN WINTERS & NEIL McCULLOCH & ANDREW McKAY, 2015. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty: The Evidence So Far," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Non-Tariff Barriers, Regionalism and Poverty Essays in Applied International Trade Analysis, chapter 14, pages 271-314, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Patrick Guillaumont, 2011. "Aid effectiveness for poverty reduction:macroeconomic overview and emerging issues," CERDI Working papers halshs-00554285, HAL.
    14. Mullings, Robert & Mahabir, Aruneema, 2018. "Growth by Destination: The Role of Trade in Africa’s Recent Growth Episode," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 243-261.
    15. Rodrik, Dani, 2001. "Development strategies for the next century," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 33124, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    16. Rangan Gupta & Lardo Stander & Andrea Vaona, 2023. "Openness and growth: Is the relationship non‐linear?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 3071-3099, July.
    17. Grabiella Berloffa & Maria Luigia Segnana, 2004. "Trade, inequality and pro-poor growth: Two perspectives, one message?," Department of Economics Working Papers 0408, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    18. Montalbano, Pierluigi, 2011. "Trade Openness and Developing Countries' Vulnerability: Concepts, Misconceptions, and Directions for Research," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 1489-1502, September.
    19. Chantal Dupasquier & Patrick N. Osakwe, 2006. "Trade Regimes, Liberalization and Macroeconomic Instability in Africa," Development Economics Working Papers 21823, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    20. Guillaumont, Patrick & Jeanneney, Sylviane Guillaumont & Brun, Jean-Francois, 1999. "How Instability Lowers African Growth," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 8(1), pages 87-107, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdi:wpaper:151. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Vincent Mazenod (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ceauvfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.