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Ouverture, vulnérabilité et développement

Listed author(s):
  • Patrick GUILLAUMONT

    ()

    (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International(CERDI))

This paper gives a conceptual overview of the openness and vulnerability, sharing which in both cases respectively depends on economic policy and on structural factors, independent from policy. It focuses on openness policy, proposed to be measured by the residual of an openness function estimated only from structural factors, and on structural vulnerability, proposed to be measured from indicators reflecting the size of the shocks and the exposure to them. Some joint effects of an openness policy and of structural vulnerability are then presented, relying on several previous cross-section regressions and summarized on six proposals : 1/ whereas economic growth is raised by export growth, it is lowered by export instability, 2/ vulnerability (instability) affects more total factor productivity than capital accumulation, 3/ structural vulnerability to a large extent operates through economic policy intermediary variables, 4/ negative effects of export instability are dampened by an open policy, 5/ they are also dampened by foreign aid, 6/ an appropriate measurement of macroeconomic performance both reflecting the quality (openness) of the policy and taking into account structural vulnerability, can be used as a criterion for aid allocation.

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File URL: http://publi.cerdi.org/ed/2001/2001.03.pdf
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Paper provided by CERDI in its series Working Papers with number 200103.

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Length: 31
Date of creation: 2001
Publication status: Published in , 2001, pages 149-172
Handle: RePEc:cdi:wpaper:151
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  3. Guillaumont, Patrick & Jeanneney, Sylviane Guillaumont & Brun, Jean-Francois, 1999. "How Instability Lowers African Growth," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 8(1), pages 87-107, March.
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  10. Robert Lensink & Howard White, 2000. "Assessing Aid: A Manifesto for Aid in the 21st Century?," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 5-18.
  11. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 997-1032, October.
  12. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
  13. Catherine ARAUJO BONJEAN & Jean-Louis COMBES & Pascale COMBES MOTEL, 1999. "The Economic Consequences of Export Instability in Developing Countries: A Survey," Working Papers 199926, CERDI.
  14. J.-L Combes & P. Guillaumont & S. Guillaumont Jeanneney & P. Motel Combes, 2000. "Ouverture sur l'extérieur et instabilité des taux de croissance," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 15(1), pages 3-33.
  15. Guillaumont, Patrick & Guillaumont, Sylviane & Plane, Patrick, 1988. "Participating in African monetary unions: An alternative evaluation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 569-576, May.
  16. Richard Breen & Cecilia García-Peñalosa, 2005. "Income Inequality and Macroeconomic Volatility: An Empirical Investigation," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 380-398, 08.
  17. Dawe, David, 1996. "A new look at the effects of export instability on investment and growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(12), pages 1905-1914, December.
  18. Edwards, Sebastian, 1998. "Openness, Productivity and Growth: What Do We Really Know?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(447), pages 383-398, March.
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  20. Paul Collier & Jan Willem Gunning, 1999. "Why Has Africa Grown Slowly?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 3-22, Summer.
  21. Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 1999. "On The Economic Vulnerability Of Low Income Countries révisé, cf 2000.16," Working Papers 199916, CERDI.
  22. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
  23. Ghura, Dhaneshwar & Grennes, Thomas J., 1993. "The real exchange rate and macroeconomic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 155-174, October.
  24. Richard Breen, 1999. "Income Inequality and Macroeconomic Volatility: An Empirical Investigation," Economics Series Working Papers 1999-W20, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  25. Collier, Paul & Guillaumont, Patrick & Guillaumont, Sylviane & Gunning, Jan Willem, 1997. "Redesigning conditionality," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1399-1407, September.
  26. Gyimah-Brempong, Kwabena, 1991. "Export Instability and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(4), pages 815-828, July.
  27. Francisco Serranito, 2001. "L'impact de L'ouverture sur la Croissance et la Convergence : Un Examen Empirique," Post-Print halshs-00174186, HAL.
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