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Ouverture sur l'extérieur et instabilité des taux de croissance

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-Louis COMBES

    () (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International(CERDI))

  • Pascale COMBES MOTEL

    () (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International(CERDI))

  • Patrick GUILLAUMONT

    () (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International(CERDI))

  • Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY

    () (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International(CERDI))

Abstract

This paper considers the effects of a more or less trade and capital openness on the instability of the growth rate. Indicators of outward looking policies are estimated by eliminating the impact of structural factors through a standardization equation. Then indicators of growth instability are estimated. Open trade policies are assumed to be stabilizing because they improve the working of markets. But open financial policies, when the financial system is underdeveloped, may increase instability due to speculative capital flows. Econometric analysis relying on a large sample of developed and developing countries for three periods beginning in 1970 allows to not reject these assumptions.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Louis COMBES & Pascale COMBES MOTEL & Patrick GUILLAUMONT & Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY, 1999. "Ouverture sur l'extérieur et instabilité des taux de croissance," Working Papers 199927, CERDI.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdi:wpaper:126
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    File URL: http://publi.cerdi.org/ed/1999/1999.27.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
    2. Francisco Rodriguez & Dani Rodrik, 2001. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 261-338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Edward E. Leamer, 1988. "Measures of Openness," NBER Chapters, in: Trade Policy Issues and Empirical Analysis, pages 145-204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Patrick Guillaumont, 1989. "Stratégies de développement et ouverture sur l'extérieur," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 1(1), pages 40-57.
    5. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Trade Policy and Economic Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," NBER Working Papers 6562, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-329, June.
    7. Edwards, Sebastian, 1998. "Openness, Productivity and Growth: What Do We Really Know?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(447), pages 383-398, March.
    8. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
    9. Davis, Graham A., 1995. "Learning to love the Dutch disease: Evidence from the mineral economies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(10), pages 1765-1779, October.
    10. repec:umd:umdeco:rodriguez9901 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Sachs, Jeffrey D & Warner, Andrew M, 1997. "Sources of Slow Growth in African Economies," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 6(3), pages 335-376, October.
    12. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-848, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre JACQUET & Alexis ATLANI & Marwan LISSER, 2017. "Policy responses to terms of trade shocks," Working Papers P205, FERDI.
    2. Jean-Louis Combes & Tahsin Saadi-Sedik, 2006. "How does trade openness influence budget deficits in developing countries?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(8), pages 1401-1416.
    3. BESSO, CHRISTOPHE RAOUL & chameni, celestin, 2016. "Analyse De La Vulnerabilite Macroeconomique De La Zone Franc
      [Analysis Of The Macroeconomic Vulnerability Of The Franc Zone]
      ," MPRA Paper 75143, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Jean-Louis COMBES & Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2000. "Volatilité des prix des produits primaires, vulnérabilité et développement," Working Papers 200014, CERDI.
    5. Patrick Guillaumont, 2010. "Assessing the Economic Vulnerability of Small Island Developing States and the Least Developed Countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(5), pages 828-854.
    6. Ibrahima Amadou Diallo, 2015. "The Effects of Real Exchange Rate Volatility on Productivity Growth," Eastern European Business and Economics Journal, Eastern European Business and Economics Studies Centre, vol. 1(2), pages 66-84.
    7. Pierre JACQUET & Alexis ATLANI & Marwan LISSER, 2017. "Policy responses to terms of trade shocks," Working Papers P205, FERDI.
    8. Joël CARIOLLE, 2012. "Measuring macroeconomic volatility - Applications to export revenue data, 1970-2005," Working Papers I14, FERDI.
    9. repec:bla:devpol:v:20:y:2002:i:1:p:25-39 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Patrick Guillaumont, 2009. "An Economic Vulnerability Index: Its Design and Use for International Development Policy," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 193-228.
    11. Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2000. "On the Economic Vulnerability of Low Income Countries," Working Papers 200016, CERDI.
    12. Jean‐Louis Combes & Patrick Guillaumont, 2002. "Commodity Price Volatility, Vulnerability and Development," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 20(1), pages 25-39, March.
    13. Chauvet, Lisa, 2003. "Socio-political instability and the allocation of international aid by donors," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-59, March.
    14. Jean-Louis COMBES & Tahsin SAADI SEDIK, 2002. "How does Trade openness Influence Budget Deficits?," Working Papers 200209, CERDI.
    15. Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2001. "Ouverture, vulnérabilité et développement," Working Papers 200103, CERDI.
    16. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5400 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Diallo, Oumar, 2009. "Tortuous road toward countercyclical fiscal policy: Lessons from democratized sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 36-50.
    18. Lisa Chauvet & Patrick Guillaumont, 2009. "Aid, Volatility, and Growth Again: When Aid Volatility Matters and When it Does Not," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(s1), pages 452-463, August.
    19. Joël CARIOLLE, 2012. "Mesurer l’instabilité macroéconomique - Applications aux données de recettes d’exportation, 1970-2005," Working Papers I14, FERDI.
    20. Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2007. "EVI and its Use. Design of an Economic Vulnerability Index and its Use for International Development Policy," Working Papers 200714, CERDI.

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