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Commodity Price Volatility, Vulnerability and Development

Author

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  • Jean-Louis COMBES

    () (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International(CERDI))

  • Patrick GUILLAUMONT

    () (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International(CERDI))

Abstract

This paper examines the meaning and consequences of the developing countries economic vulnerability to the volatility of commodity prices. It first considers how to define and measure this vulnerability, which has three components, shocks, exposure and resilience, and focuses on the two first ones in order to identify the structural vulnerability, distinct from the vulnerability linked to the policy. Second, the main channels through which the vulnerability to commodity prices influences economic growth are presented on the basis of several previous cross-sectional growth regression, supplemented by a test given in an annex. Finally, policy implications are drawn related to development aid, its allocation and its design as well.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Louis COMBES & Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2000. "Commodity Price Volatility, Vulnerability and Development," Working Papers 200015, CERDI.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdi:wpaper:142
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    9. Robert Lensink & Howard White, 2000. "Assessing Aid: A Manifesto for Aid in the 21st Century?," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 5-18.
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    12. Catherine ARAUJO BONJEAN & Jean-Louis COMBES & Pascale COMBES MOTEL, 1999. "The Economic Consequences of Export Instability in Developing Countries: A Survey," Working Papers 199926, CERDI.
    13. J.-L Combes & P. Guillaumont & S. Guillaumont Jeanneney & P. Motel Combes, 2000. "Ouverture sur l'extérieur et instabilité des taux de croissance," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 15(1), pages 3-33.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Louis Combes & Tahsin Saadi-Sedik, 2006. "How does trade openness influence budget deficits in developing countries?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(8), pages 1401-1416.
    2. Patrick Guillaumont, 2009. "An Economic Vulnerability Index: Its Design and Use for International Development Policy," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 193-228.
    3. Samba MBAYE, 2012. "Beggar-thy-Neighbor Effects of Currency Undervaluation: Is China the Tip of the Iceberg?," Working Papers 201239, CERDI.
    4. Ian Bannon & Paul Collier, 2003. "Natural Resources and Violent Conflict : Options and Actions," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 15047.
    5. Lee Robinson & Alice Nicole Sindzingre, 2012. "China’s Ambiguous Impacts on Commodity-Dependent Countries: the Example of Sub-Saharan Africa (with a Focus on Zambia)," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-39, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    6. Bacon, Chris, 2004. "Confronting the Coffee Crisis: Can Fair Trade, Organic, and Specialty Coffees Reduce Small-Scale Farmer Vulnerability in Northern Nicaragua?," Center for Global, International and Regional Studies, Working Paper Series qt0xn3f86t, Center for Global, International and Regional Studies, UC Santa Cruz.
    7. Francesco Aiello, 2009. "Experiences With Traditional Compensatory Finance Schemes And Lessons From Flex," Working Papers 200912, Università della Calabria, Dipartimento di Economia, Statistica e Finanza "Giovanni Anania" - DESF.
    8. Aiello, Francesco Aiello, 2010. "Experiences with Traditional Compensatory Finance Scheme and Lessons from FLEX - Esperienze dei tradizionali sistemi di compensazione finanziaria e lezioni dal caso FLEX," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 63(1), pages 1-52.
    9. Maurice, Noemie & Davis, Junior, 2011. "Unravelling the underlying causes of price volatility in world coffee and cocoa commodity markets," MPRA Paper 43813, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2012.

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