IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prs/rfreco/rfeco_0769-0479_2000_num_15_1_1441.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Ouverture sur l'extérieur et instabilité des taux de croissance

Author

Listed:
  • J.-L Combes
  • P. Guillaumont
  • S. Guillaumont Jeanneney
  • P. Motel Combes

Abstract

[fre] Cet article examine les effets des politiques d'ouverture commerciale et financière sur l'instabilité de la croissance économique à travers un échantillon mondial. Des indicateurs de politique d'ouverture sont construits à partir d'équations de normalisation des taux d'ouverture observés afin d'éliminer l'effet des variables structurelles. Puis un indicateur d'instabilité est calculé ex post sur une série de taux de croissance du produit préalablement purgée de ses composantes non stationnaires. L'hypothèse est que les politiques d'ouverture commerciale en améliorant le fonctionnement des marchés sont stabilisantes. Au contraire, nous supposons que les politiques d'ouverture financière, lorsque le système financier est trop rudimentaire, comme souvent dans les pays en développement, peuvent contribuer à l'instabilité de la croissance en favorisant des flux de capitaux spéculatifs. L'analyse économétrique conduite sur un échantillon de pays- années de tous niveaux de développement, depuis 1970, n'infirme pas ces hypothèses. [eng] Openness and Growth Instability. This paper considers the effects of a more or less trade and capital openness on the instability of the growth rate. Indicators of outward looking policies are estimated by eliminating the impact of structural factors through a standardization equation. Then indicators of growth instability are estimated. Open trade policies are assumed to be stabilizing because they improve the working of markets. But open financial policies, when the financial system is underdeveloped, may increase instability due to speculative capital flows. Econometric analysis relying on a large sample of developed and developing countries for three periods beginning in 1970 allows to not reject these assumptions.

Suggested Citation

  • J.-L Combes & P. Guillaumont & S. Guillaumont Jeanneney & P. Motel Combes, 2000. "Ouverture sur l'extérieur et instabilité des taux de croissance," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 15(1), pages 3-33.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:rfreco:rfeco_0769-0479_2000_num_15_1_1441
    DOI: 10.3406/rfeco.2000.1441
    Note: DOI:10.3406/rfeco.2000.1441
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3406/rfeco.2000.1441
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.persee.fr/doc/rfeco_0769-0479_2000_num_15_1_1441
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3406/rfeco.2000.1441?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Coe, David T. & Helpman, Elhanan, 1995. "International R&D spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 859-887, May.
    2. Patrick Guillaumont, 1989. "Stratégies de développement et ouverture sur l'extérieur," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 1(1), pages 40-57.
    3. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Trade Policy and Economic Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," NBER Working Papers 6562, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-329, June.
    5. Guillaumont, Patrick & Jeanneney, Sylviane Guillaumont & Brun, Jean-Francois, 1999. "How Instability Lowers African Growth," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 8(1), pages 87-107, March.
    6. Edwards, Sebastian, 1998. "Openness, Productivity and Growth: What Do We Really Know?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(447), pages 383-398, March.
    7. repec:umd:umdeco:rodriguez9901 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
    9. Francisco Rodríguez & Dani Rodrik, 2001. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 261-338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Sachs, Jeffrey D & Warner, Andrew M, 1997. "Sources of Slow Growth in African Economies," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 6(3), pages 335-376, October.
    11. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
    12. Davis, Graham A., 1995. "Learning to love the Dutch disease: Evidence from the mineral economies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(10), pages 1765-1779, October.
    13. Edward E. Leamer, 1988. "Measures of Openness," NBER Chapters, in: Trade Policy Issues and Empirical Analysis, pages 145-204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-848, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Louis COMBES & Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2000. "Volatilité des prix des produits primaires, vulnérabilité et développement," Working Papers 200014, CERDI.
    2. Nabil ALIMI, 2016. "The Effect Of Economic Freedom On Business Cycle Volatility: Case Of Developing Countries," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 43, pages 139-158.
    3. Patrick Guillaumont, 2009. "An Economic Vulnerability Index: Its Design and Use for International Development Policy," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 193-228.
    4. Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2001. "Ouverture, vulnérabilité et développement," Working Papers 200103, CERDI.
    5. Patrick Guillaumont, 2010. "Assessing the Economic Vulnerability of Small Island Developing States and the Least Developed Countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(5), pages 828-854.
    6. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5400 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Jean-Louis Combes & Tahsin Saadi-Sedik, 2006. "How does trade openness influence budget deficits in developing countries?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(8), pages 1401-1416.
    8. Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2007. "EVI and its Use. Design of an Economic Vulnerability Index and its Use for International Development Policy," Working Papers 200714, CERDI.
    9. Patrick Guillaumont, 2010. "Assessing the Economic Vulnerability of Small Island Developing States and Least Developed Countries," Post-Print hal-00594797, HAL.
    10. Pierre JACQUET & Alexis ATLANI & Marwan LISSER, 2017. "Policy responses to terms of trade shocks," Working Papers P205, FERDI.
    11. Ibrahima Amadou Diallo, 2015. "The Effects of Real Exchange Rate Volatility on Productivity Growth," Eastern European Business and Economics Journal, Eastern European Business and Economics Studies Centre, vol. 1(2), pages 66-84.
    12. Jean‐Louis Combes & Patrick Guillaumont, 2002. "Commodity Price Volatility, Vulnerability and Development," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 20(1), pages 25-39, March.
    13. Lisa Chauvet & Patrick Guillaumont, 2009. "Aid, Volatility, and Growth Again: When Aid Volatility Matters and When it Does Not," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 452-463, August.
    14. Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2000. "On the Economic Vulnerability of Low Income Countries," Working Papers 200016, CERDI.
    15. Jean-Louis COMBES & Tahsin SAADI SEDIK, 2002. "How does Trade openness Influence Budget Deficits?," Working Papers 200209, CERDI.
    16. Diallo, Oumar, 2009. "Tortuous road toward countercyclical fiscal policy: Lessons from democratized sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 36-50.
    17. BESSO, CHRISTOPHE RAOUL & chameni, celestin, 2016. "Analyse De La Vulnerabilite Macroeconomique De La Zone Franc [Analysis Of The Macroeconomic Vulnerability Of The Franc Zone]," MPRA Paper 75143, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Pierre JACQUET & Alexis ATLANI & Marwan LISSER, 2017. "Policy responses to terms of trade shocks," Working Papers P205, FERDI.
    19. Joël CARIOLLE, 2012. "Measuring macroeconomic volatility - Applications to export revenue data, 1970-2005," Working Papers I14, FERDI.
    20. Chauvet, Lisa, 2003. "Socio-political instability and the allocation of international aid by donors," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-59, March.
    21. repec:bla:rdevec:v:13:y:2009:i:s1:p:452-463 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Joël CARIOLLE, 2012. "Mesurer l’instabilité macroéconomique - Applications aux données de recettes d’exportation, 1970-2005," Working Papers I14, FERDI.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2001. "Ouverture, vulnérabilité et développement," Working Papers 200103, CERDI.
    2. Rod Falvey & Neil Foster & David Greenaway, 2001. "Institutions and Structural Unemployment: North-South Trade, Openness and Growth," Vienna Economics Papers 0108, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    3. Klaus Wälde & Christina Wood, 2004. "The empirics of trade and growth: where are the policy recommendations?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 275-292, January.
    4. Navaratnam Ravinthirakumaran, 2014. "Applicability of Openness-led Growth Hypothesis in Sri Lanka," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 15(2), pages 241-263, September.
    5. Dodzin, Sergei & Vamvakidis, Athanasios, 2004. "Trade and industrialization in developing economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 319-328, October.
    6. Chantal Dupasquier & Patrick N. Osakwe, 2006. "Trade Regimes, Liberalization and Macroeconomic Instability in Africa," Development Economics Working Papers 21823, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    7. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-72.
    8. Sambit Bhattacharyya, 2020. "A History of Global Capitalism: Feuding Elites and Imperial Expansion," Working Paper Series 1020, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    9. Mtiraoui, abderraouf, 2015. "Openness, Human Capital and Economic Growth in MENA: Theoretical foundations and application to Dynamic panel data," MPRA Paper 61530, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Arvanitidis, Paschalis & Petrakos, George & Pavleas, Sotiris, 2007. "Determinants of economic growth: the experts’ view," Papers DYNREG20, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    11. João Luis Brasil Gondim & Flávio Ataliba Barreto, 2004. "O Uso Do Núcleo Estocástico Para Identificação De Clubes De Convergência Entre Estados E Municípios Brasileiros," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 053, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    12. Niclas Berggren & Henrik Jordahl, 2005. "Does free trade really reduce growth? Further testing using the economic freedom index," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 122(1), pages 99-114, January.
    13. José De Gregorio & Jong-Wha Lee, 1999. "Economic Growth in Latin America: Sources and Prospects," Documentos de Trabajo 66, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
    14. Kevin H. O'Rourke, 2002. "Globalization and Inequality: Historical Trends," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 57(01), pages 65-104, March.
    15. Christine Mutz & Thomas Ziesemer, 2008. "Simultaneous estimation of income and price elasticities of export demand, scale economies and total factor productivity growth for Brazil," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(22), pages 2921-2937.
    16. Jakob B. Madsen, 2009. "Trade Barriers, Openness, and Economic Growth," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 76(2), pages 397-418, October.
    17. Iyke Bernard Njindan, 2017. "Does Trade Openness Matter for Economic Growth in the CEE Countries?," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 17(1), pages 3-24, March.
    18. Maria Cipollina & Luca Salvatici, 2008. "Measuring Protection: Mission Impossible?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 577-616, July.
    19. Musleh-Ud Din & Ejaz Ghani & Omer Siddique, 2003. "Openness and Economic Growth in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 42(4), pages 795-807.
    20. Cécile Denis & Kieran Mc Morrow & Werner Röger, 2006. "Globalisation : trends, issues and macro implications for the EU," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 254, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prs:rfreco:rfeco_0769-0479_2000_num_15_1_1441. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Equipe PERSEE (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.persee.fr/collection/rfeco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.