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Ouverture sur l'extérieur et instabilité des taux de croissance

  • J.-L Combes
  • P. Guillaumont
  • S. Guillaumont Jeanneney
  • P. Motel Combes

[fre] Cet article examine les effets des politiques d'ouverture commerciale et financière sur l'instabilité de la croissance économique à travers un échantillon mondial. Des indicateurs de politique d'ouverture sont construits à partir d'équations de normalisation des taux d'ouverture observés afin d'éliminer l'effet des variables structurelles. Puis un indicateur d'instabilité est calculé ex post sur une série de taux de croissance du produit préalablement purgée de ses composantes non stationnaires. L'hypothèse est que les politiques d'ouverture commerciale en améliorant le fonctionnement des marchés sont stabilisantes. Au contraire, nous supposons que les politiques d'ouverture financière, lorsque le système financier est trop rudimentaire, comme souvent dans les pays en développement, peuvent contribuer à l'instabilité de la croissance en favorisant des flux de capitaux spéculatifs. L'analyse économétrique conduite sur un échantillon de pays- années de tous niveaux de développement, depuis 1970, n'infirme pas ces hypothèses. [eng] Openness and Growth Instability. This paper considers the effects of a more or less trade and capital openness on the instability of the growth rate. Indicators of outward looking policies are estimated by eliminating the impact of structural factors through a standardization equation. Then indicators of growth instability are estimated. Open trade policies are assumed to be stabilizing because they improve the working of markets. But open financial policies, when the financial system is underdeveloped, may increase instability due to speculative capital flows. Econometric analysis relying on a large sample of developed and developing countries for three periods beginning in 1970 allows to not reject these assumptions.

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue française d'économie.

Volume (Year): 15 (2000)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 3-33

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Handle: RePEc:prs:rfreco:rfeco_0769-0479_2000_num_15_1_1441
Note: DOI:10.3406/rfeco.2000.1441
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