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Ouverture sur l'extérieur et instabilité des taux de croissance

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  • J.-L Combes
  • P. Guillaumont
  • S. Guillaumont Jeanneney
  • P. Motel Combes

Abstract

[fre] Cet article examine les effets des politiques d'ouverture commerciale et financière sur l'instabilité de la croissance économique à travers un échantillon mondial. Des indicateurs de politique d'ouverture sont construits à partir d'équations de normalisation des taux d'ouverture observés afin d'éliminer l'effet des variables structurelles. Puis un indicateur d'instabilité est calculé ex post sur une série de taux de croissance du produit préalablement purgée de ses composantes non stationnaires. L'hypothèse est que les politiques d'ouverture commerciale en améliorant le fonctionnement des marchés sont stabilisantes. Au contraire, nous supposons que les politiques d'ouverture financière, lorsque le système financier est trop rudimentaire, comme souvent dans les pays en développement, peuvent contribuer à l'instabilité de la croissance en favorisant des flux de capitaux spéculatifs. L'analyse économétrique conduite sur un échantillon de pays- années de tous niveaux de développement, depuis 1970, n'infirme pas ces hypothèses. [eng] Openness and Growth Instability. This paper considers the effects of a more or less trade and capital openness on the instability of the growth rate. Indicators of outward looking policies are estimated by eliminating the impact of structural factors through a standardization equation. Then indicators of growth instability are estimated. Open trade policies are assumed to be stabilizing because they improve the working of markets. But open financial policies, when the financial system is underdeveloped, may increase instability due to speculative capital flows. Econometric analysis relying on a large sample of developed and developing countries for three periods beginning in 1970 allows to not reject these assumptions.

Suggested Citation

  • J.-L Combes & P. Guillaumont & S. Guillaumont Jeanneney & P. Motel Combes, 2000. "Ouverture sur l'extérieur et instabilité des taux de croissance," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 15(1), pages 3-33.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:rfreco:rfeco_0769-0479_2000_num_15_1_1441
    DOI: 10.3406/rfeco.2000.1441
    Note: DOI:10.3406/rfeco.2000.1441
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Louis COMBES & Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2000. "Volatilité des prix des produits primaires, vulnérabilité et développement," Working Papers 200014, CERDI.
    2. Jean‐Louis Combes & Patrick Guillaumont, 2002. "Commodity Price Volatility, Vulnerability and Development," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 20(1), pages 25-39, March.
    3. Patrick Guillaumont, 2009. "An Economic Vulnerability Index: Its Design and Use for International Development Policy," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 193-228.
    4. Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2000. "On the Economic Vulnerability of Low Income Countries," Working Papers 200016, CERDI.
    5. Jean-Louis COMBES & Tahsin SAADI SEDIK, 2002. "How does Trade openness Influence Budget Deficits?," Working Papers 200209, CERDI.
    6. Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2001. "Ouverture, vulnérabilité et développement," Working Papers 200103, CERDI.
    7. Jean-Louis Combes & Tahsin Saadi-Sedik, 2006. "How does trade openness influence budget deficits in developing countries?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(8), pages 1401-1416.
    8. Patrick Guillaumont, 2010. "Assessing the Economic Vulnerability of Small Island Developing States and the Least Developed Countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(5), pages 828-854.
    9. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5400 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Diallo, Oumar, 2009. "Tortuous road toward countercyclical fiscal policy: Lessons from democratized sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 36-50.
    11. Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2007. "EVI and its Use. Design of an Economic Vulnerability Index and its Use for International Development Policy," Working Papers 200714, CERDI.
    12. Pierre JACQUET & Alexis ATLANI & Marwan LISSER, 2017. "Policy responses to terms of trade shocks," Working Papers P205, FERDI.
    13. BESSO, CHRISTOPHE RAOUL & chameni, celestin, 2016. "Analyse De La Vulnerabilite Macroeconomique De La Zone Franc [Analysis Of The Macroeconomic Vulnerability Of The Franc Zone]," MPRA Paper 75143, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Ibrahima Amadou Diallo, 2015. "The Effects of Real Exchange Rate Volatility on Productivity Growth," Eastern European Business and Economics Journal, Eastern European Business and Economics Studies Centre, vol. 1(2), pages 66-84.
    15. Pierre JACQUET & Alexis ATLANI & Marwan LISSER, 2017. "Policy responses to terms of trade shocks," Working Papers P205, FERDI.
    16. Joël CARIOLLE, 2012. "Measuring macroeconomic volatility - Applications to export revenue data, 1970-2005," Working Papers I14, FERDI.
    17. Chauvet, Lisa, 2003. "Socio-political instability and the allocation of international aid by donors," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-59, March.
    18. Lisa Chauvet & Patrick Guillaumont, 2009. "Aid, Volatility, and Growth Again: When Aid Volatility Matters and When it Does Not," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(s1), pages 452-463, August.
    19. Joël CARIOLLE, 2012. "Mesurer l’instabilité macroéconomique - Applications aux données de recettes d’exportation, 1970-2005," Working Papers I14, FERDI.

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