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How Instability Lowers African Growth

Listed author(s):
  • Guillaumont, Patrick
  • Jeanneney, Sylviane Guillaumont
  • Brun, Jean-Francois

This paper aims to assess the role of instabilities on Africa's low rates of growth during the seventies and eighties, using cross-section econometric estimates, on a sample of African and non-African countries and two pooled decades. Africa exhibits higher 'primary' instabilities (climatic, terms of trade and political instabilities), i.e., instabilities which are structural rather than the result of policy. These 'primary' instabilities influence African growth more through a lower growth residual than through a lower average rate of investment. They do so by their impact on economic policy, which is evidenced by their influence on two 'intermediate' instabilities, the instabilities of the rate of investment and of the real exchange rate, which significantly lower the rate of growth. Copyright 1999 by Oxford University Press.

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Article provided by Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) in its journal Journal of African Economies.

Volume (Year): 8 (1999)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 87-107

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Handle: RePEc:oup:jafrec:v:8:y:1999:i:1:p:87-107
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  1. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
  2. Savvides, Andreas, 1995. "Economic growth in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 449-458, March.
  3. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
  4. Guillaumont, Patrick & Guillaumont, Sylviane & Plane, Patrick, 1988. "Participating in African monetary unions: An alternative evaluation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 569-576, May.
  5. Dawe, David, 1996. "A new look at the effects of export instability on investment and growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(12), pages 1905-1914, December.
  6. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-963, September.
  7. Collier, Paul & Guillaumont, Patrick & Guillaumont, Sylviane & Gunning, Jan Willem, 1997. "Redesigning conditionality," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1399-1407, September.
  8. Lussier, Martine, 1993. "Impacts of Exports on Economic Performance: A Comparative Study," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 2(1), pages 106-127, May.
  9. Grier, Kevin B. & Tullock, Gordon, 1989. "An empirical analysis of cross-national economic growth, 1951-1980," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 259-276, September.
  10. Ojo, Oladeji & Oshikoya, Temitope, 1995. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: Some African Results," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 4(2), pages 163-191, October.
  11. Guillaumont, Patrick, 1987. "From export instability effects to international stabilization policies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 633-643, May.
  12. Moran, Cristian, 1983. "Export fluctuations and economic growth : An empirical analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 195-218.
  13. Patrick Guillaumont, 1994. "Adjustment policy and agricultural development," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 141-155, 03.
  14. Fosu, Augustin Kwasi, 1990. "Exports and economic growth: The African case," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 831-835, June.
  15. Ghura, Dhaneshwar & Grennes, Thomas J., 1993. "The real exchange rate and macroeconomic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 155-174, October.
  16. Paolo Mauro, 1995. "Corruption and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(3), pages 681-712.
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