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On The Economic Vulnerability Of Low Income Countries révisé, cf 2000.16

  • Patrick GUILLAUMONT

    ()

    (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International)

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    This paper examines the relevance of the economic vulnerability concept for low income countries, a topic of recent concern in several international bodies. It first considers some conceptual clarifications and a method to build an internationally comparable indicator. Three factors of vulnerability are distinguished: shocks, exposure and resilience or capacity to react (the first two ones being more structural, the third one more related to policy). To measure the two main kinds of shocks (natural and external), proposed proxies are respectively the instability of agricultural production and the instability of the purchasing power of exports, while the (smallness of) the population size can be used as a proxy for (structural) exposure. To aggregate the various possible indicators in a composite index of (structural) economic vulnerability, weights can be drawn from their estimated impact on growth. Then selected issues related to the impact of vulnerability on growth are considered: "primary" instabilities (climate, terms of trade, political troubles) are found to slow growth, more by their effect on the total factor productivity growth than on the rate of investment, to do so through "intermediate" instabilities (of the rate of investment and of the real exchange rate), and in agricultural economies through the impact at the farmer level. Besides its negative effects on growth, vulnerability is assumed to increase aid effectiveness: the more the recipient country is vulnerable the more aid contributes to growth. Implications are drawn for aid allocation and aid design.

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    Paper provided by CERDI in its series Working Papers with number 199916.

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    Length: 28
    Date of creation: 1999
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:cdi:wpaper:115
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    1. Guillaumont, Patrick, 1987. "From export instability effects to international stabilization policies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 633-643, May.
    2. Lim, David, 1980. "Income Distribution, Export Instability, and Savings Behavior," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(2), pages 359-64, January.
    3. David Dollar & Craig Burnside, 2000. "Aid, Policies, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 847-868, September.
    4. Ghura, Dhaneshwar & Grennes, Thomas J., 1993. "The real exchange rate and macroeconomic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 155-174, October.
    5. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Where Did All The Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict, and Growth Collapses," NBER Working Papers 6350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Collier, Paul & Guillaumont, Patrick & Guillaumont, Sylviane & Gunning, Jan Willem, 1997. "Redesigning conditionality," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1399-1407, September.
    7. Paul Collier & P. Guillaumont & S. Guillaumont Jeanneney & Jan Willem Gunning, 1999. "Reforming Stabex," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(5), pages 669-682, 07.
    8. Patrick GUILLAUMONT & Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY & Jean-François BRUN, 1998. "How Instability Lowers African Growth," Working Papers 199806, CERDI.
    9. Serven, Luis, 1997. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty and Private Investment: Analytical Issues and Some Lessons for Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 6(3), pages 229-68, Supplemen.
    10. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 1999. "Volatility and Investment: Interpreting Evidence from Developing Countries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 66(262), pages 157-79, May.
    11. Glezakos, Constantine, 1984. "Export Instability and Economic Growth: Reply," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(3), pages 615-23, April.
    12. Collier, Paul & Dollar, David, 2002. "Aid allocation and poverty reduction," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(8), pages 1475-1500, September.
    13. Guillaumont, Patrick & Guillaumont, Sylviane & Plane, Patrick, 1988. "Participating in African monetary unions: An alternative evaluation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 569-576, May.
    14. Moran, Cristian, 1983. "Export fluctuations and economic growth : An empirical analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 195-218.
    15. Patrick GUILLAUMONT & Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY & Paul COLLIER & Jan Willem GUNNING, 1997. "Rénover le Stabex," Working Papers 199723, CERDI.
    16. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December.
    17. Claudio Araujo, 1995. "Les producteurs brésiliens et l'instabilité des prix : Différences de comportement entre le Nord et le Sud," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 43(3), pages 443-461, November.
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