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Business Cycle Fluctuations, Large Shocks, and Development Aid: New Evidence

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  • Ms. Era Dabla-Norris
  • Ms. Camelia Minoiu
  • Luis-Felipe Zanna

Abstract

We examine the cyclical properties of development aid using bilateral data for 22 donors and over 100 recipients during 1970?2005. We find that bilateral aid flows are on average procyclical with respect to business cycles in donor and recipient countries. However, they become countercyclical when recipient countries face large adverse shocks to the terms-of-trade or growth collapses-thus playing an important cushioning role. Aid outlays contract sharply during severe donor economic downturns; this effect is magnified by higher public debt levels. Additionally, bilateral aid flows are higher in the presence of IMF programs and are more countercyclical for recipient countries with stronger institutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Ms. Camelia Minoiu & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2010. "Business Cycle Fluctuations, Large Shocks, and Development Aid: New Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2010/240, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2010/240
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    Cited by:

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    2. Stubbs, Thomas H. & Kentikelenis, Alexander E. & King, Lawrence P., 2016. "Catalyzing Aid? The IMF and Donor Behavior in Aid Allocation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 511-528.
    3. Gravier-Rymaszewska, Joanna, 2012. "How Aid Supply Responds to Economic Crises: A Panel VAR Approach," WIDER Working Paper Series 025, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Combes, Jean-Louis & Ebeke, Christian Hubert & Etoundi, Sabine Mireille Ntsama & Yogo, Thierry Urbain, 2014. "Are Remittances and Foreign Aid a Hedge Against Food Price Shocks in Developing Countries?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 81-98.
    5. Peter Claeys & Luis Costa, 2012. "“A Note on the Relationship Between the Cyclicality of Markups and Fiscal Policy”," IREA Working Papers 201215, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Sep 2012.
    6. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Are Foreign Aid and Remittance Inflows a Hedge Against Food Price Shocks?," IMF Working Papers 2012/067, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Civelli Andrea & Horowitz Andrew W. & Teixeira Arilton, 2016. "A Signal of Altruistic Motivation for Foreign Aid," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 1-31, October.
    8. Andrea Filippo Presbitero, 2013. "Aid and Vulnerability," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 88, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    9. Joanna Gravier-Rymaszewska, 2012. "How Aid Supply Responds to Economic Crises: A Panel VAR Approach," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2012-025, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. Beletskaya, M., 2019. "Bilateral International Assistance: Factors for Donor Countries," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 43(3), pages 95-114.
    11. Blanco Cossio,Fernando Andres,Sachdeva,Niharika, 2021. "The Cyclicality of IFC Investments : To Be, or Not to Be, Procyclical," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9746, The World Bank.
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    13. Jones, Sam, 2015. "Aid Supplies Over Time: Addressing Heterogeneity, Trends, and Dynamics," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 31-43.
    14. Rohen d'AIGLEPIERRE et Laurent Wagner, 2017. "Macroeconomic Crisis, Primary Education and Aid Effectiveness," Working Paper def86062-d26a-4379-af8d-c, Agence française de développement.
    15. Debasish Kumar Das & Champa Bati Dutta, 2013. "Global Financial Crisis And Foreign Development Assistance Shocks In Least Developing Countries," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(2), pages 1-41, June.
    16. Giscard Assoumou Ella, 2013. "Impact of international income, prices and monetary shocks on real exchange rate in eight African economies: An empirical study," The Empirical Econometrics and Quantitative Economics Letters, Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, vol. 2(3), pages 41-54, September.

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