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New OECD Methods for Supply-side and Medium-term Assessments: A Capital Services Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Pierre-Olivier Beffy
  • Patrice Ollivaud
  • Pete Richardson
  • Franck Sédillot

Abstract

The OECD makes frequent use of the supply-side framework and associated measures of factor productivity, productive potential and associated output gaps in the assessment of the short-term conjunctural situation, comparative economic performance and longer-term growth determinants. This paper describes a number of recent changes and improvements in the methods used in estimating potential output for OECD countries and the systems in which they are used, notably for the production of mediumterm economic scenarios. By and large, these reflect important changes and improvements in available statistical data sets, notably for measuring productive capital, as well as the development of more efficient model-based methods for making medium-term projections on a consistent international basis. Révisions des méthods pour élaborer les potentiels de croissance et le scénario de moyen terms de l'OCDE L’OCDE utilise de façon régulière son cadre analytique de dérivation du bloc d’offre et ses mesures dérivées de productivité globale des facteurs, de potentiel de croissance et d’écart de production dans son évaluation de la situation conjoncturelle, des performances économiques relatives des différents pays et des déterminants de la croissance de long terme. Ce papier décrit les changements et améliorations récents apportés, d’une part, à la méthode d’estimation des potentiels de croissance des pays de l’OCDE et, d’autre part, aux systèmes dans lesquels ces potentiels sont utilisés, notamment ceux assurant la production de scénario de moyen terme. Globalement, ces changements reflètent la meilleure qualité des statistiques disponibles, notamment celles relatives à la mesure du stock de capital productif, mais aussi la mise en place de méthodes plus efficaces pour produire un ensemble cohérent de projections internationales de moyen terme.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre-Olivier Beffy & Patrice Ollivaud & Pete Richardson & Franck Sédillot, 2006. "New OECD Methods for Supply-side and Medium-term Assessments: A Capital Services Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 482, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:482-en
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/628752675863
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    Keywords

    capital services; fonction de production; macroeconomic modelling; medium-term projections; modélisation macroéconomique; OCDE; OECD; potential output; production function; production potentielle; projections de moyen terme; stock de capital productif;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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