IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

In Search for a Long-run Relationship between Aid and Growth: Pitfalls and Findings

Listed author(s):

In this paper we investigate the relationship between per capita income and foreign aid for a panel of 131 (alternatively 52) recipient countries over the period 1960 to 2006 by employing annual data and 5-year averages. Reliance on standard panel estimation techniques, such as 2-ways FE estimation, panel GMM and SUR estimation, points to some pitfalls (impossibility of possible cointegration between aid and growth, autocorrelation of the error terms, endogeneity of the variables) that must be dealt with panel time series techniques (such as panel unit root test, panel cointegration tests and panel dynamic feasible generalized least squares estimation (DFGLS)). Estimations with DFGLS show that aid has an insignificant or a minute negative significant impact on per capita income. This result holds for countries with above- and below-average aid-to-GDP ratios, for countries with different levels of human development, with different income levels and from different regions of the world. It can be shown that by not controlling for autocorrelation, one erroneously attributes to aid a larger, significant negative impact on per capita income. We also find that aid has a significant positive (even though) small impact on investment, but a negative and significant impact on domestic savings (crowding out) and the real exchange rate (appreciation).

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www2.vwl.wiso.uni-goettingen.de/ibero/working_paper_neu/DB196.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research in its series Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers with number 196.

as
in new window

Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: 29 Jul 2009
Handle: RePEc:got:iaidps:196
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Platz des Göttinger Sieben 3, 37073 Göttingen

Phone: 0049-551-39 81 72
Fax: 0049-551-39 81 73
Web page: http://www.iai.wiwi.uni-goettingen.de
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. François Bourguignon & Mark Sundberg, 2007. "Aid Effectiveness – Opening the Black Box," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 316-321, May.
  2. Canavire-Bacarreza, Gustavo & Nunnenkamp, Peter & Thiele, Rainer & Triveño, Luis, 2005. "Assessing the allocation of aid: Developmental concerns and the self-interest of donors," Kiel Working Papers 1253, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  3. Raghuram Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2007. "Does Aid Affect Governance?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 322-327, May.
  4. Neil R. Ericsson & John S. Irons & Ralph W. Tryon, 2000. "Output and inflation in the long run," International Finance Discussion Papers 687, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. David Locke Newhouse & Prachi Mishra, 2007. "Health Aid and Infant Mortality," IMF Working Papers 07/100, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Axel Dreher & Peter Nunnenkamp & Rainer Thiele, 2006. "Does US Aid Buy UN General Assembly Votes? A Disaggregated Analysis," KOF Working papers 06-138, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  7. Lisa CHAUVET & Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2003. "Aid and Growth Revisited: Policy, Economic Vulnerability and Political Instability," Working Papers 200327, CERDI.
  8. Dreher, Axel & Sturm, Jan-Egbert & Vreeland, James Raymond, 2009. "Global horse trading: IMF loans for votes in the United Nations Security Council," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 742-757, October.
  9. Fleck, Robert K. & Kilby, Christopher, 2005. "How Do Political Changes Influence U.S. Bilateral Aid Allocations? Evidence from Panel Data," Vassar College Department of Economics Working Paper Series 67, Vassar College Department of Economics.
  10. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  11. Erik Hjalmarsson & Par Osterholm, 2007. "A residual-based cointegration test for near unit root variables," International Finance Discussion Papers 907, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. David Dollar & Craig Burnside, 2000. "Aid, Policies, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 847-868, September.
  13. Hristos Doucouliagos & Martin Paldam, 2009. "The Aid Effectiveness Literature: The Sad Results Of 40 Years Of Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 433-461, 07.
  14. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
  15. J. J. Polak & Joydeep Roy & Catherine A Pattillo, 2007. "Measuring the Effect of Foreign Aidon Growth and Poverty Reduction or the Pitfalls of Interaction Variables," IMF Working Papers 07/145, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Cellini, Roberto, 1997. "Implications of Solow's Growth Model in the Presence of a Stochastic Steady State," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 135-153, January.
  17. Dalgaard, Carl-Johan & Hansen, Henrik & Tarp, Finn, 2002. "On the Empirics of Foreign Aid and Growth," MPRA Paper 63696, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  18. Axel Dreher & Nathan Jensen, 2003. "Independent Actor or Agent? An Empirical Analysis of the impact of US interests on IMF Conditions," International Finance 0310004, EconWPA, revised 08 Jan 2004.
  19. Jean-Claude Berthelemy, 2006. "Bilateral Donor's Interest vs. Recipients' Development Motives in Aid Allocation: Do All Donors Behave the Same?," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00305510, HAL.
  20. Hansen, Henrik & Tarp, Finn, 2000. "Aid and Growth Regressions," MPRA Paper 62288, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  21. Dreher, Axel & Nunnenkamp, Peter & Thiele, Rainer, 2008. "Does Aid for Education Educate Children? Evidence from Panel Data," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 28827, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  22. Christopher Kilby, 2006. "Donor influence in multilateral development banks: The case of the Asian Development Bank," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 173-195, June.
  23. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1990. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 3541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Allan W. Gregory & Alfred A. Haug & Nicoletta Lomuto, 2004. "Mixed signals among tests for cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 89-98.
  25. Dreher, Axel, 2006. "IMF and economic growth: The effects of programs, loans, and compliance with conditionality," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 769-788, May.
  26. William Easterly, 2003. "Can Foreign Aid Buy Growth?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 23-48, Summer.
  27. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  28. Oecd, 2004. "Aid Effectiveness and Selectivity: Integrating Multiple Objectives into Aid Allocations," OECD Journal on Development, OECD Publishing, vol. 4(3), pages 7-40.
  29. Alesina, Alberto & Devleeschauwer, Arnaud & Easterly, William & Kurlat, Sergio & Wacziarg, Romain, 2003. "Fractionalization," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 155-194, June.
  30. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  31. Peter Jensen & Martin Paldam, 2006. "Can the two new aid-growth models be replicated?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 127(1), pages 147-175, April.
  32. Sanjay Reddy & Camelia Minoiu, 2009. "Development Aid and Economic Growth; A Positive Long-Run Relation," IMF Working Papers 09/118, International Monetary Fund.
  33. Ilyana Kuziemko & Eric Werker, 2006. "How Much Is a Seat on the Security Council Worth? Foreign Aid and Bribery at the United Nations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(5), pages 905-930, October.
  34. Axel Dreher & Jan-Egbert Sturm & James Raymond Vreeland, 2007. "Development Aid and International Politics: Does membership on the UN Security Council influence World Bank decisions?," KOF Working papers 07-171, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  35. Raghuram Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2005. "Aid and Growth; What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," IMF Working Papers 05/127, International Monetary Fund.
  36. Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2014. "What Undermines Aid’s Impact on Growth?," Working Papers id:6191, eSocialSciences.
  37. Finn Tarp, 2006. "Aid and Development," Discussion Papers 06-12, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  38. P.A.V.B. Swamy & I-Lok Chang, 2002. "A Method of Correcting for Omitted-Variables and Measurement-Errors Bias in Panel Data," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 69, Society for Computational Economics.
  39. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(03), pages 597-625, June.
  40. Frey, Bruno S. & Schneider, Friedrich, 1986. "Competing models of international lending activity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 225-245, March.
  41. William Easterly & Ross Levine & David Roodman, 2004. "Aid, Policies, and Growth: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(3), pages 774-780, June.
  42. Michael A. Clemens & Steven Radelet & Rikhil Bhavnani, 2004. "Counting chickens when they hatch: The short-term effect of aid on growth," International Finance 0407010, EconWPA.
  43. McGillivray, Mark, 2003. "Aid Effectiveness and Selectivity: Integrating Multiple Objectives into Aid Allocations," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  44. David Roodman, 2007. "The Anarchy of Numbers: Aid, Development, and Cross-Country Empirics," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 21(2), pages 255-277, May.
  45. McGillivray, Mark & Feeny, Simon & Hermes, Niels & Lensink, Robert, 2005. "It Works; It Doesn't; It Can, But That Depends?: 50 Years of Controversy over the Macroeconomic Impact of Development Aid," Working Paper Series RP2005/54, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  46. Hristos Doucouliagos & Martin Paldam, 2005. "Aid Effectiveness on Growth. A Meta Study," Economics Working Papers 2005-13, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  47. Camelia Minoiu & Sanjay Reddy, 2007. "Aid Does Matter, After All: Revisiting the Relationship Between Aid and Growth," Challenge, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 50(2), pages 39-58, April.
  48. Patrick GUILLAUMONT & Lisa CHAUVET, 1999. "Aid and Performance: A Reassessment," Working Papers 199910, CERDI.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:got:iaidps:196. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sabine Jaep)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.