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Mixed signals among tests for cointegration


  • Allan W. Gregory

    (Queen's University, Kingston, Canada)

  • Alfred A. Haug

    (York University, Toronto, Canada)

  • Nicoletta Lomuto

    (DATACORP, Providence, Rhode Island, USA)


This paper illustrates that, under the null hypothesis of no cointegration, the correlation of p-values from a single-equation residual-based test (i.e., ADF or $\widehat{Z}_{\alpha}$ ) with a system-based test (trace or maximum eigenvalue) is very low even as the sample size gets large. With data-generating processes under the null or 'near' it, the two types of tests can yield virtually any combination of p-values regardless of sample size. As a practical matter, we also conduct tests for cointegration on 132 data sets from 34 studies appearing in this Journal and find substantial differences in p-values for the same data set. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Allan W. Gregory & Alfred A. Haug & Nicoletta Lomuto, 2004. "Mixed signals among tests for cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 89-98.
  • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:19:y:2004:i:1:p:89-98
    DOI: 10.1002/jae.733

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2012. "Oil prices, exchange rates and emerging stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 227-240.
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    3. Francesca Iorio & Stefano Fachin, 2014. "Savings and investments in the OECD: a panel cointegration study with a new bootstrap test," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1271-1300, June.
    4. Okullo, Samuel J. & Reynès, Frédéric, 2011. "Can reserve additions in mature crude oil provinces attenuate peak oil?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 5755-5764.
    5. Hanck, Christoph, 2006. "Mixed Signals Among Panel Cointegration Tests," Technical Reports 2006,45, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
    6. Bayer, Christian & Hanck, Christoph, 2008. "Is Double Trouble? How to Combine Cointegration Tests," Research Memorandum 014, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    7. M. E. Bontempi & L. Bottazzi & R. Golinelli, 2015. "Dynamic corporate capital structure behavior: empirical assessment in the light of heterogeneity and non stationarity," Working Papers wp988, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    8. Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D. & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso & Dierk Herzer & Stephan Klasen & Axel Dreher, 2009. "In Search for a Long-run Relationship between Aid and Growth: Pitfalls and Findings," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 196, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Christian Bayer & Christoph Hanck, 2013. "Combining non-cointegration tests," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 83-95, January.
    10. Badi Baltagi & Zijun Wang, 2007. "Testing for Cointegrating Rank Via Model Selection: Evidence From 165 Data Sets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 41-49, July.
    11. repec:eee:energy:v:128:y:2017:i:c:p:487-495 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Chandran Govindaraju, V.G.R. & Tang, Chor Foon, 2013. "The dynamic links between CO2 emissions, economic growth and coal consumption in China and India," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 310-318.
    13. SBIA, Rashid & Al Rousan, Sahel, 2015. "Does Financial Development Induce Economic Growth in UAE? The Role of Foreign Direct Investment and Capitalization," MPRA Paper 64599, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Di Iorio, Francesca & Fachin, Stefano, 2010. "A Panel Cointegration study of the long-run relationship between Savings and Investments in the OECD economies, 1970-2007," MPRA Paper 25873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. repec:eee:touman:v:37:y:2013:i:c:p:52-57 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Maxym Chaban, 2010. "Cointegration analysis with structural breaks and deterministic trends: an application to the Canadian dollar," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(23), pages 3023-3037.
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    18. M. Shahe Emran & Forhad Shilpi, 2008. "Estimating Import Demand Function in Developing Countries: A Structural Econometric Approach with Applications to India and Sri Lanka," Working Papers 2008-10, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    19. Rashid Sbia & Sahel Alrousan, 2016. "Does Financial Development Induce Economic Growth in UAE? The Role of Capitalization and Foreign Direct Investment," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(2), pages 703-710.

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