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Der Klein(st)staat Liechtenstein und seine grossen Nachbarländer: Eine wachstums- und konjunkturanalytische Gegenüberstellung

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  • Andreas Brunhart

    (Liechtenstein-Institut)

Abstract

Die Kleinstvolkswirtschaft Liechtenstein hat in den letzten vier Jahrzehnten über eine höhere Dynamik und Volatilität in ihrem Wachstum verfügt als die drei grösseren Nachbarn Schweiz, Österreich und Deutschland. Seit den 1990er-Jahren kam es in Liechtenstein zu einer „Great Agitation“, also zu einer Erhöhung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Volatilität, die in krassem Gegensatz zu der international beobachtbaren „Great Moderation“ steht, welche bis zur aktuellen Finanzkrise anhielt. Diese Agitation hat sich vor allem durch die zunehmende anteilsmässige Bedeutung des Finanzdienstleistungssektors und dessen steigende sektorale Volatilität ergeben. Allgemein ist es zu einer Wachstumskonvergenz der vier Staaten und einer noch weiter ansteigenden Synchronität der Konjunkturzyklen gekommen. Zudem scheint der liechtensteinische Konjunkturzyklus vorlaufend gegenüber seinem engsten Nachbarn, der Schweiz, zu sein: Der statistische Vorlauf der liechtensteinischen realen BIP-Wachstumsrate und der konjunkturellen Trendabweichung ist hoch signifikant und stabil in verschiedenen in diesem Kontext adäquaten Modellen und deren Spezifikationen. The economy of the micro-state Liechtenstein has featured a higher dynamic and volatility in its growth than the three larger neighbours Switzerland, Austria and Germany during the last four decades. From the 90s on, a „Great Agitation“(an increase of macroeconomic volatility) has occurred, which contrasts the internationally observable „Great Moderation“ that lasted until the recent financial crisis. This agitation was mainly driven by the growing relative importance of the financial services sector and its rising sectoral volatility. A growth convergence among the four inspected nations has evolved and also the business cycle patterns have become more and more synchronized. Also, there appears a leading pattern of the business cycle in Liechtenstein compared to its closest neighbor, Switzerland: The statistical lead property of Liechtenstein’s growth rate of real GDP and business cycle amplitude is highly significant and robust across various different models and econometric specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Brunhart, 2013. "Der Klein(st)staat Liechtenstein und seine grossen Nachbarländer: Eine wachstums- und konjunkturanalytische Gegenüberstellung," Arbeitspapiere 44, Liechtenstein-Institut.
    • Handle: RePEc:lii:wpaper:44
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    Cited by:

    1. Andreas Brunhart, 2015. "The Swiss Business Cycle and the Lead of Small Neighbor Liechtenstein," Arbeitspapiere 51, Liechtenstein-Institut.
    2. Andreas Brunhart, 2017. "Are Microstates Necessarily Led by Their Bigger Neighbors’ Business Cycle? The Case of Liechtenstein and Switzerland," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(1), pages 29-52, May.
    3. Andreas Brunhart, 2014. "Methodenbericht zur Schnellschätzung des liechtensteinischen Bruttonationaleinkommens," Arbeitspapiere 47, Liechtenstein-Institut.

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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