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Identification of Liechtenstein's Historic Economic Growth and Business Cycles by Econometric Extensions of Data Series

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  • Brunhart, Andreas

Abstract

Several economic data series of Liechtenstein are backwardly estimated in order to achieve consistent historic time series. The generated series consist for instance of the national income for the years 1954 to 1992 (by regressive inter- and retropolation with indicators) and 1993 to 1997 (by approximative computation after national accounting scheme). Also, the sectoral and total employment of some missing years in the 70s, 80s and 90s is complemented and the gross domestic product from 1972 until 1997 is provided by an approximative computation/estimation relying on the identity of the generation of income account as part of the national accounts. These methods and the presented series are being evaluated with respect to their accuracy, which turns out to be satisfying, and can be linked with the released results from the official national accounts, which were introduced for the year 1998 and have been published until 2009 so far. Along with the provision of these figures, Liechtenstein’s economic growth pattern is being identified, the business cycles are detected and first analytical insights are obtained.

Suggested Citation

  • Brunhart, Andreas, 2012. "Identification of Liechtenstein's Historic Economic Growth and Business Cycles by Econometric Extensions of Data Series," MPRA Paper 44628, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:44628
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andreas Brunhart, 2014. "Stock Market's Reactions to Revelation of Tax Evasion: An Empirical Assessment," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 150(III), pages 161-190, September.
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    4. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing for Higher Order Serial Correlation in Regression Equations When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1303-1310, November.
    5. Brunhart, Andreas, 2012. "Identification of Liechtenstein's historic economic growth and business cycles by econometric extensions of data series," KOFL Working Papers 14, Konjunkturforschungsstelle Liechtenstein (KOFL), Vaduz.
    6. Durbin, J, 1970. "Testing for Serial Correlation in Least-Squares Regression When Some of the Regressors are Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(3), pages 410-421, May.
    7. Bénédicte Vidaillet & V. d'Estaintot & P. Abécassis, 2005. "Introduction," Post-Print hal-00287137, HAL.
    8. Brunhart, Andreas & Kellermann, Kersten & Schlag, Carsten-Henning, 2012. "Drei Phasen des Potentialwachstums in Liechtenstein," KOFL Working Papers 11, Konjunkturforschungsstelle Liechtenstein (KOFL), Vaduz.
    9. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    10. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    11. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Andreas Brunhart, 2013. "Der Klein(st)staat Liechtenstein und seine grossen Nachbarländer: Eine wachstums- und konjunkturanalytische Gegenüberstellung," Arbeitspapiere 44, Liechtenstein-Institut.
    2. Andreas Brunhart, 2015. "The Swiss Business Cycle and the Lead of Small Neighbor Liechtenstein," Arbeitspapiere 51, Liechtenstein-Institut.
    3. Brunhart, Andreas, 2012. "Liechtensteins neuere Wirtschaftshistorie: Erste Einsichten und Interpretationen der neu geschätzten Zeitreihen," KOFL Economic Focus 5, Konjunkturforschungsstelle Liechtenstein (KOFL), Vaduz.
    4. Andreas Brunhart, 2017. "Are Microstates Necessarily Led by Their Bigger Neighbors’ Business Cycle? The Case of Liechtenstein and Switzerland," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(1), pages 29-52, May.
    5. Brunhart, Andreas, 2012. "Liechtensteins neuere Wirtschaftshistorie: Ergebnisse der ökonometrischen Verlängerung ökonomischer Zeitreihen," KOFL Economic Focus 4, Konjunkturforschungsstelle Liechtenstein (KOFL), Vaduz.
    6. Andreas Brunhart & Zbigniew Dumienski, 2015. "Economic Development and Land Issues in Liechtenstein: Historical Dynamics, Current Challenges and Suggested Fiscal Remedies," Arbeitspapiere 49, Liechtenstein-Institut.
    7. Brunhart, Andreas, 2012. "Identification of Liechtenstein's Historic Economic Growth and Business Cycles by Econometric Extensions of Data Series," MPRA Paper 44628, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Growth; Business Cycles; Liechtenstein; Regressive Interpolation and Retropolation; Multiple Imputation; National Accounts;

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations

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