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Stock Market's Reactions to Revelation of Tax Evasion: An Empirical Assessment

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  • Andreas Brunhart

Abstract

Additionally to the financial crisis causing a world recession, Liechtenstein's financial sector has been challenged by the so-called "Zumwinkel-Affair", when a whistle-blower sold data of hundreds of tax evaders to international tax authorities. This paper investigates the impact of this affair on the daily stock prices of banks from Liechtenstein. An unconventional augmented GARCH-model (labelled as "augmented amalGARCH"), which outperforms conventional models, is introduced and dynamically analyses various influences on risk and returns. Also, an event study framework is applied. The main finding beyond further conclusions is that the Zumwinkel-Affair had an (accumulating) effect on risk, but surprisingly no impact on average stock return could be detected.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Brunhart, 2014. "Stock Market's Reactions to Revelation of Tax Evasion: An Empirical Assessment," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 150(III), pages 161-190, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ses:arsjes:2014-iii-1
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    1. Andreas Brunhart, 2014. "Stock Market's Reactions to Revelation of Tax Evasion: An Empirical Assessment," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 150(III), pages 161-190, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andreas Brunhart, 2013. "Der Klein(st)staat Liechtenstein und seine grossen Nachbarländer: Eine wachstums- und konjunkturanalytische Gegenüberstellung," Arbeitspapiere 44, Liechtenstein-Institut.
    2. Andreas Brunhart, 2014. "Stock Market's Reactions to Revelation of Tax Evasion: An Empirical Assessment," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 150(III), pages 161-190, September.
    3. Brunhart, Andreas, 2012. "Liechtensteins neuere Wirtschaftshistorie: Erste Einsichten und Interpretationen der neu geschätzten Zeitreihen," KOFL Economic Focus 5, Konjunkturforschungsstelle Liechtenstein (KOFL), Vaduz.
    4. Brunhart, Andreas, 2012. "Identification of Liechtenstein's Historic Economic Growth and Business Cycles by Econometric Extensions of Data Series," MPRA Paper 44628, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tax evasion; Liechtenstein; financial institutions; stock price volatility; augmented GARCH; amalGARCH;

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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