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Methodenbericht zur Schnellschätzung des liechtensteinischen Bruttonationaleinkommens

Author

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  • Andreas Brunhart

    () (Liechtenstein-Institut)

Abstract

Das Ziel des Projektes, dessen Methodik hier dargestellt wird, ist die Einführung einer jährlichen Schnellschätzung des liechtensteinischen Bruttonationaleinkommens, welche analog zur bereits existierenden BIP-Schnellschätzung bereits im Frühjahr und somit mehr als ein halbes Jahr vor Veröffentlichung der kompletten Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnung Liechtensteins (Anfang Dezember) vorliegen soll. Damit würde sich die Publikationsverzögerung des BNE von 23 auf 15 Monate verringern. Die Schnellschätzung wird im Wesentlichen anhand eines multiplen Regressionsmodells unter Verwendung von Indikator-Variablen durchgeführt, welche eine starke Korrelation mit dem Bruttonationaleinkommen aufweisen. Die ermittelten Modelle verfügen über eine hohe Prognosegenauigkeit, sind mit überschaubarem Aufwand anwendbar und können als deutlich besser bezeichnet werden als die bis anhin angewandte Daumenregel, in der einfach die Wachstumsrate der BIP-Schnellschätzung auf das Bruttonationaleinkommen übertragen wird. The aim of the project, whose methodological characteristics are outlined in this paper, is the introduction of an annual flash estimate of Liechtenstein’s gross national income. This GNI flash estimate shall be published in spring analogously to the existent GDP flash estimate around half a year before the entire national accounts is released by the beginning of December. This would reduce the GNI’s publication lag from 23 to 15 months. The flash estimate procedure consists of a multiple regression model that contains indicator variables with a high correlation to the GNI. The obtained models exhibit a high forecast accuracy, are applicable with relatively low effort and clearly outperform the rule of thumb used so far of applying the GDP flash estimated growth rates to GNI.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Brunhart, 2014. "Methodenbericht zur Schnellschätzung des liechtensteinischen Bruttonationaleinkommens," Arbeitspapiere 47, Liechtenstein-Institut.
  • Handle: RePEc:lii:wpaper:47
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    File URL: https://www.liechtenstein-institut.li/application/files/3515/7435/2704/LIAP_047.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2014
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brunhart, Andreas, 2012. "Liechtensteins neuere Wirtschaftshistorie: Ergebnisse der ökonometrischen Verlängerung ökonomischer Zeitreihen," KOFL Economic Focus 4, Konjunkturforschungsstelle Liechtenstein (KOFL), Vaduz.
    2. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    3. Andreas Brunhart, 2013. "Der Klein(st)staat Liechtenstein und seine grossen Nachbarländer: Eine wachstums- und konjunkturanalytische Gegenüberstellung," Arbeitspapiere 44, Liechtenstein-Institut.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnung; Schnellschätzung; Nowcasting; Bruttonationaleinkommen; ARDL-Modell; Liechtenstein;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts

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