An exploration of dynamic relationship between tourist arrivals, inflation, unemployment and crime rates in Malaysia
Purpose – The main purpose of this study is to examine the dynamic relationship between tourist arrivals, inflation, unemployment and crime rates in Malaysia. This study covered the annual data from 1970 to 2008. Design/methodology/approach – The multivariate Johansen-Juselius cointegration test is employed to examine the potential long-run equilibrium relationship. While the Granger causality test within the vector error-correction modelling (VECM) framework is applied to determine the causal relationship between crime rate and its determinants. Findings – The Johansen-Juselius cointegration test result reveals that the variables are cointegrated and the dynamic ordinary least squares estimator suggest that unemployment, inflation and tourist arrivals are positively related to crime rates in Malaysia. For Granger causality, in the long-run tourist arrivals, inflation and unemployment rates Granger cause crime rate in Malaysia. However, in the short run we find bilateral causality between unemployment, crime and tourist arrivals. Finally, the variance decompositions and impulse response functions analyses implied that unemployment, inflation and tourist arrivals are important in explaining the variation in crime for Malaysia. Originality/value – The estimated crime rate function for Malaysia demonstrated that promoting supply-side economy and also increases the numbers of police and patrolling duties in the potential crime areas will reduce the crime rate in Malaysia and in the same time attract more tourist arrivals to Malaysia.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 38 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (December)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.emeraldinsight.com|
|Order Information:|| Postal: Emerald Group Publishing, Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley, BD16 1WA, UK|
Web: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/ijse.htm Email:
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- repec:ebl:ecbull:v:11:y:2004:i:1:p:1-9 is not listed on IDEAS
- Pantula, Sastry G., 1989. "Testing for Unit Roots in Time Series Data," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(02), pages 256-271, August.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Muzafar Shah Habibullah & A.H. Baharom, 2009. "Crime and economic conditions in Malaysia," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 36(11), pages 1071-1081, October.
- Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1989. "Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 161-181, January.
- Chor Foon Tang, 2009. "How Stable is the Demand for Money in Malaysia? New Empirical Evidence from Rolling Regression," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(3-4), pages 85-100, August.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
- Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
- Lewis R. Gale & Will Carrington Heath & Rand W. Ressler, 2002. "An Economic Analysis of Hate Crime," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 203-216, Spring.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991.
"A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems,"
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues
91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
- Saikkonen, Pentti, 1991. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointegration Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(01), pages 1-21, March.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992.
"Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Johansen, Soren, 1992.
"Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 383-97, August.
- Johansen, S., 1991. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Papers 76a, Helsinki - Department of Economics.
- Gary S. Becker, 1974.
"Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach,"
in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Haug, Alfred A., 1996.
"Tests for cointegration a Monte Carlo comparison,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 89-115.
- Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
- James G. MacKinnon, 1995.
"Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests,"
918, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-18, Nov.-Dec..
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
- Phillips, P.C.B., 1986.
"Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 757, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
- Schwert, G William, 1989.
"Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 7(2), pages 147-59, April.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Tang, Chor Foon & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2009. "New evidence from the misery index in the crime function," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 112-115, February.
- Baharom, A.H. & Habibullah, M.S., 2008. "Crime and Income Inequality: The Case of Malaysia," MPRA Paper 11871, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Podivinsky, Jan M., 1998. "Testing misspecified cointegrating relationships," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 1-9, July.
- Borland, Jeff & Hunter, Boyd, 2000. "Does Crime Affect Employment Status? The Case of Indigenous Australians," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 67(265), pages 123-44, February.
- Ahking, Francis W., 2002. "Model mis-specification and Johansen's co-integration analysis: an application to the US money demand," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 51-66, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:ijsepp:v:38:y:2011:i:1:p:50-69. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Virginia Chapman)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.