The Power of Single Equation Tests for Cointegration when the Cointegrating Vector is Prespecified
In this paper I present an alternative derivation of the asymptotic distribution of Kremers, Ericsson and Dolado's (1992) conditional ECM- based t-test for no-cointegration with a single prespecified cointegrating vector. This alternative distribution, which is identical to the distribution of Hansen's (1995) covariate augmented t-test for a unit root, is valid for weakly exogenous regressors and depends on a consistently estimable nuisance parameter that takes on values in the unit interval. I show analytically, using asymptotic power functions based on near cointegrated alternatives, that the ECM t-test with a prespecified cointegrating vector can have much higher power than single equation tests for cointegration based on estimating the cointegrating vector. I also characterize situations in which the ECM t-test computed with a misspecified cointegrating vector will have high power.
|Date of creation:||02 Dec 1996|
|Date of revision:|
|Note:||Type of Document - Adobe .pdf file; prepared on IBM-PC; pages: 25; figures: 25, in separate file ecmfigs.pdf|
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