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Cointegration and Long-Horizon Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Francis X. Diebold
  • Mr. Peter F. Christoffersen

Abstract

Imposing cointegration on a forecasting system, if cointegration is present, is believed to improve long-horizon forecasts. Contrary to this belief, at long horizons nothing is lost by ignoring cointegration when the forecasts are evaluated using standard multivariate forecast accuracy measures. In fact, simple univariate Box-Jenkins forecasts are just as accurate. Our results highlight a potentially important deficiency of standard forecast accuracy measures—they fail to value the maintenance of cointegrating relationships among variables—and we suggest alternatives that explicitly do so.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Francis X. Diebold & Mr. Peter F. Christoffersen, 1997. "Cointegration and Long-Horizon Forecasting," IMF Working Papers 1997/061, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1997/061
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    2. Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 1997. "Optimal Prediction Under Asymmetric Loss," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(6), pages 808-817, December.
    3. Gregory C. Reinsel & Sung K. Ahn, 1992. "Vector Autoregressive Models With Unit Roots And Reduced Rank Structure:Estimation. Likelihood Ratio Test, And Forecasting," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 353-375, July.
    4. Wickens, Michael R., 1996. "Interpreting cointegrating vectors and common stochastic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 255-271, October.
    5. Hoffman, Dennis L & Rasche, Robert H, 1996. "Assessing Forecast Performance in a Cointegrated System," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 495-517, Sept.-Oct.
    6. Lin, Jin-Lung & Tsay, Ruey S, 1996. "Co-integration Constraint and Forecasting: An Empirical Examination," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 519-538, Sept.-Oct.
    7. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 283-306, March.
    8. Christoffersen, Peter F & Diebold, Francis X, 1996. "Further Results on Forecasting and Model Selection under Asymmetric Loss," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 561-571, Sept.-Oct.
    9. Granger, Clive W J, 1996. "Can We Improve the Perceived Quality of Economic Forecasts?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 455-473, Sept.-Oct.
    10. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    11. Clements, M.P. & Hendry, D., 1992. "On the Limitations of Comparing Mean Square Forecast Errors," Economics Series Working Papers 99138, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    12. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1995. "Forecast evaluation and combination," Research Paper 9525, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    13. Eric Zivot, 1996. "The Power of Single Equation Tests for Cointegration when the Cointegrating Vector is Prespecified," Econometrics 9612001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, Paul, 1986. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 2, number 9780122951831 edited by Shell, Karl.
    15. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
    16. Horvath, Michael T.K. & Watson, Mark W., 1995. "Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Cointegrating Vectors are Prespecified," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(5), pages 984-1014, October.
    17. Clements, M.P. & Hendry, D.F., 1992. "Forecasting in Cointegrated Systems," Economics Series Working Papers 99139, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
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    Keywords

    WP; mover accent;

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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