IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/unu/wpaper/wp-2012-025.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How Aid Supply Responds to Economic Crises: A Panel VAR Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Joanna Gravier-Rymaszewska

Abstract

The strong interdependence between the developed and developing worlds surfaced with the recent economic downturn. Due to the global character of the economy, the downturn affected not only the North but also the South. In addition, the Official Development Assistance (ODA) is subject to a pro-cyclical trend in aid which falls when donors encounter recession. We attempt to answer the question of whether and how donors adjust aid budgets in response to various macroeconomic shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Joanna Gravier-Rymaszewska, 2012. "How Aid Supply Responds to Economic Crises: A Panel VAR Approach," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2012-025, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2012-025
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/wp2012-025.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. berlage, Lodewijk & cassimon, Danny & dreze, Jacques & Reding, Paul, 2003. "Prospective Aid and Indebtedness Relief: A Proposal," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 1635-1654, October.
    2. Graham Bird & Alistair Milne, 2004. "Debt Relief for Low-Income Countries: Is it Effective and Efficient?," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: International Finance and the Developing Economies, chapter 15, pages 273-288, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. Robert K. Fleck & Christopher Kilby, 2006. "How Do Political Changes Influence US Bilateral Aid Allocations? Evidence from Panel Data," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 210-223, May.
    4. Alesina, Alberto & Dollar, David, 2000. "Who Gives Foreign Aid to Whom and Why?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 33-63, March.
    5. Nicolas Depetris Chauvin & Aart Kraay, 2005. "What Has 100 Billion Dollars Worth of Debt Relief Done for Low- Income Countries?," International Finance 0510001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Dudley, Leonard & Montmarquette, Claude, 1976. "A Model of the Supply of Bilateral Foreign Aid," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(1), pages 132-142, March.
    7. Dang, Hai-Anh & Knack, Stephen & Rogers, F. Halsey, 2013. "International aid and financial crises in donor countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 232-250.
    8. David Dollar & Craig Burnside, 2000. "Aid, Policies, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 847-868, September.
    9. Edwards, Sebastian & Levy Yeyati, Eduardo, 2005. "Flexible exchange rates as shock absorbers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 2079-2105, November.
    10. Channing Arndt & Sam Jones & Finn Tarp, 2009. "Aid and Growth: Have We Come Full Circle?," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2009-05, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    11. Maizels, Alfred & Nissanke, Machiko K., 1984. "Motivations for aid to developing countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 12(9), pages 879-900, September.
    12. Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Henrik Hansen & Finn Tarp, 2004. "On The Empirics of Foreign Aid and Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(496), pages 191-216, June.
    13. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    14. Arellano, Cristina & Bulír, Ales & Lane, Timothy & Lipschitz, Leslie, 2009. "The dynamic implications of foreign aid and its variability," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 87-102, January.
    15. Henrik Hansen & Derek Headey, 2010. "The Short-Run Macroeconomic Impact of Foreign Aid to Small States: An Agnostic Time Series Analysis," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(5), pages 877-896.
    16. Danny Cassimon & Bjorn Van Campenhout, 2007. "Aid Effectiveness, Debt Relief and Public Finance Response: Evidence from a Panel of HIPC Countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 143(4), pages 742-763, December.
    17. Anne Boschini & Anders Olofsgård, 2007. "Foreign aid: An instrument for fighting communism?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(4), pages 622-648.
    18. Hansen, Henrik & Tarp, Finn, 2001. "Aid and growth regressions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 547-570, April.
    19. Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2008. "Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 643-665, November.
    20. Round, Jeffery I. & Odedokun, Matthew, 2004. "Aid effort and its determinants," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 293-309.
    21. Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Ms. Camelia Minoiu & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2010. "Business Cycle Fluctuations, Large Shocks, and Development Aid: New Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2010/240, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Arndt Channing & Jones Sam & Tarp Finn, 2010. "Aid, Growth, and Development: Have We Come Full Circle?," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-29, December.
    23. Faini, Riccardo, 2006. "Foreign Aid and Fiscal Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 5721, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    24. Katarina Juselius & Niels Framroze Møller & Finn Tarp, 2014. "The Long-Run Impact of Foreign Aid in 36 African Countries: Insights from Multivariate Time Series Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(2), pages 153-184, April.
    25. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2006. "Global Public Goods and Global Finance: Does Global Governance Ensure that the Global Public Interest is Served?," Chapters, in: Jean-Philippe Touffut (ed.), Advancing Public Goods, chapter 7, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    26. William Easterly, 2003. "Can Foreign Aid Buy Growth?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 23-48, Summer.
    27. Katarina Juselius & Niels Framroze Møller & Finn Tarp, 2014. "The Long-Run Impact of Foreign Aid in 36 African Countries: Insights from Multivariate Time Series Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(2), pages 153-184, April.
    28. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2013. "Banking crises: An equal opportunity menace," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4557-4573.
    29. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2004. "Forecasting and turning point predictions in a Bayesian panel VAR model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 327-359, June.
    30. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    31. Sam Jones, 2011. "Aid Supplies Over Time Accounting for Heterogeneity, Trends, and Dynamics," WIDER Working Paper Series 004, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    32. Honohan,Patrick & Laeven,Luc (ed.), 2005. "Systemic Financial Crises," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521851855.
    33. Nancy Birdsall & John Williamson, 2002. "Delivering on Debt Relief: From IMF Gold to a New Aid Architecture," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 337, July.
    34. Daniel M'Amanja, & Oliver Morrissey, 2006. "Foreign Aid, Investment and Economic Growth in Kenya: a Time Series Approach," Discussion Papers 06/05, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    35. Stern,Nicholas, 2007. "The Economics of Climate Change," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521700801.
    36. Bulír, Ales & Hamann, A. Javier, 2008. "Volatility of Development Aid: From the Frying Pan into the Fire?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2048-2066, October.
    37. Younas, Javed, 2008. "Motivation for bilateral aid allocation: Altruism or trade benefits," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 661-674, September.
    38. Danny Cassimon & Bjorn van Campenhout, 2007. "Aid Effectiveness, Debt Relief and Public Finance Response: Evidence from a Panel of HIPCs," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2007-59, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    39. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    40. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    41. Hudson, John & Mosley, Paul, 2008. "Aid Volatility, Policy and Development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2082-2102, October.
    42. Cepparulo, Alessandra & Giuriato, Luisa, 2009. "Aid Financing of Global Public Goods: an Update," MPRA Paper 22625, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    43. Paxton, Pamela & Knack, Stephen, 2008. "Individual and country-level factors affecting support for foreign aid," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4714, The World Bank.
    44. Chong, Alberto & Gradstein, Mark, 2008. "What determines foreign aid? The donors' perspective," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 1-13, August.
    45. James Peery Cover, 1992. "Asymmetric Effects of Positive and Negative Money-Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(4), pages 1261-1282.
    46. Cassimon, Danny & Vaessen, Jos, 2007. "Theory, practice and potential of debt for development swaps in the Asian and Pacific region," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 12-34, March.
    47. Tony Addison & Channing Arndt & Finn Tarp, 2011. "The Triple Crisis and the Global Aid Architecture," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 23(4), pages 461-478.
    48. Dorothy McCormick, 2008. "China & India as Africa's New Donors: The Impact of Aid on Development," Review of African Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(115), pages 73-92, March.
    49. Ronald U. Mendoza & Ryan Jones & Gabriel Vergara, 2009. "Will the global financial crisis lead to lower foreign aid? A first look at United States ODA," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2009-01, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
    50. Tingley, Dustin, 2010. "Donors and domestic politics: Political influences on foreign aid effort," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 40-49, February.
    51. Arndt Channing & Jones Sam & Tarp Finn, 2010. "Aid, Growth, and Development: Have We Come Full Circle?," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-29, December.
    52. World Bank & International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Global Monitoring Report 2009 : A Development Emergency," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2625, December.
    53. Helmut Reisen & Marcelo Soto & Thomas Weithöner, 2004. "Financing Global and Regional Public Goods Through ODA: Analysis and Evidence from the OECD Creditor Reporting System," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 232, OECD Publishing.
    54. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    55. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    56. Channing Arndt & Sam Jones & Finn Tarp, 2011. "Aid Effectiveness: Opening the Black Box," WIDER Working Paper Series 044, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andrea Filippo Presbitero, 2013. "Aid and Vulnerability," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 88, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    2. Kobayashi, Yoshiharu & Heinrich, Tobias & Bryant, Kristin A., 2021. "Public support for development aid during the COVID-19 pandemic," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    3. van Bergeijk, P.A.G., 2012. "Where the financial and economic crisis does bite : Impact on the Least Developed Countries," ISS Working Papers - General Series 542, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    4. Alege P.O. & George E.O. & Ojeaga P.I. & Oluwatimiro Q., 2015. "Is Africa’s current growth reducing inequality? Evidence from some selected african countries," Computational Methods in Social Sciences (CMSS), "Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 3(1), pages 49-67, June.
    5. Jones, Sam, 2015. "Aid Supplies Over Time: Addressing Heterogeneity, Trends, and Dynamics," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 31-43.
    6. Civelli Andrea & Horowitz Andrew W. & Teixeira Arilton, 2016. "A Signal of Altruistic Motivation for Foreign Aid," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 1-31, October.
    7. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wang, Chih-Wei & Ho, Shan-Ju, 2022. "Financial aid and financial inclusion: Does risk uncertainty matter?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    8. Andrew Abbott & Philip Jones, 2021. "The cyclicality of government foreign-aid expenditure: voter awareness in “good” times and in “bad”," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 186(1), pages 97-117, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gravier-Rymaszewska, Joanna, 2012. "How Aid Supply Responds to Economic Crises: A Panel VAR Approach," WIDER Working Paper Series 025, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. repec:unu:wpaper:wp2012-25 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Bandyopadhyay, Subhayu & Lahiri, Sajal & Younas, Javed, 2011. "Should Easier Access to International Credit Replace Foreign Aid?," IZA Discussion Papers 6024, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Alege P.O. & George E.O. & Ojeaga P.I. & Oluwatimiro Q., 2015. "Is Africa’s current growth reducing inequality? Evidence from some selected african countries," Computational Methods in Social Sciences (CMSS), "Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 3(1), pages 49-67, June.
    5. Bandyopadhyay, Subhayu & Lahiri, Sajal & Younas, Javed, 2015. "Financing growth through foreign aid and private foreign loans: Nonlinearities and complementarities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 75-96.
    6. Maruta, Admasu Asfaw, 2019. "Can aid for financial sector buy financial development?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    7. Łukasz Marć, 2017. "The Impact of Aid on Total Government Expenditures: New Evidence on Fungibility," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 627-663, August.
    8. Ismahene Yahyaoui & Najeh Bouchoucha, 2020. "Foreign Aid-Growth Nexus in Africa: Do Institutions Matter?," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 11(4), pages 1663-1689, December.
    9. Juergen Bitzer & Erkan Goeren, 2018. "Foreign Aid and Subnational Development: A Grid Cell Analysis," Working Papers V-407-18, University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2018.
    10. Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Ms. Camelia Minoiu & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2010. "Business Cycle Fluctuations, Large Shocks, and Development Aid: New Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2010/240, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Debasish Kumar Das & Champa Bati Dutta, 2013. "Global Financial Crisis And Foreign Development Assistance Shocks In Least Developing Countries," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(2), pages 1-41, June.
    12. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2011. "The consequences of Fiscal Episodes in OECD Countries for Aid Supply," Working Papers halshs-00613161, HAL.
    13. Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Sajal Lahiri & Javed Younas, 2013. "Financing growth: foreign aid vs. foreign loans," Working Papers 2013-031, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    14. Łukasz Marć, 2015. "The impact of aid on total government expenditures: New evidence on fungibility," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2015-010, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    15. Jones, Sam, 2015. "Aid Supplies Over Time: Addressing Heterogeneity, Trends, and Dynamics," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 31-43.
    16. Carter, Patrick, 2017. "Aid econometrics: Lessons from a stochastic growth model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 216-232.
    17. Sena Kimm GNANGNON, 2011. "The consequences of Fiscal Episodes in OECD Countries for Aid Supply," Working Papers 201122, CERDI.
    18. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2013. "How do OECD donor countries distribute foreign aid among developing countries during their fiscal episodes?," CERDI Working papers halshs-00786009, HAL.
    19. Admasu Asfaw Maruta & Rajabrata Banerjee, 2021. "Does energy aid improve energy efficiency in developing countries?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 355-388, July.
    20. Kathavate, Jay & Mallik, Girijasankar, 2012. "The impact of the Interaction between institutional quality and aid volatility on growth: theory and evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 716-724.
    21. Sena Kimm GNANGNON, 2013. "How do OECD donor countries distribute foreign aid among developing countries during their fiscal episodes?," Working Papers 201301, CERDI.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Budget; Economic assistance and foreign aid; Econometric models (Finance); Financial crisis; Panel analysis;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2012-025. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Siméon Rapin (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/widerfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.