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Aid Volatility, Policy and Development

  • John Hudson
  • Paul Mosley

    ()

    (Department of Economics, The University of Sheffield)

Summary We build on Bulir and Hamann's analysis of aid volatility [Bulir, A., & Hamann, J. (2003). Aid volatility: An empirical assessment. IMF Staff Papers, 50(1), 64-89; Bulir, A., & Hamann, J. (2008) Volatility of development aid: From the frying pan into the fire? Washington DC: IMF, paper submitted to this Special Section], showing that the conclusions reached depend on the dataset used. Their argument that the poorest countries have the highest volatility appears not to be correct. The impact of volatility on growth is negative overall, but differs between positive and negative volatility. The mix between "responsive" components of aid, for example, programme aid, and "proactive" components, for example, technical assistance, is important. Finally, we conclude that measures which increase trust between donor and recipient, and reductions in the degree of donor "oligopoly," reduce aid volatility without obviously reducing its effectiveness.

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Paper provided by The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2007015.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2007
Date of revision: Oct 2007
Handle: RePEc:shf:wpaper:2007015
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  1. Robert Lensink & Oliver Morrissey, 2000. "Aid instability as a measure of uncertainty and the positive impact of aid on growth," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 31-49.
  2. Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1994. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Timothy D. Lane & Leslie Lipschitz & Cristina Arellano & Ales Bulir, 2005. "The Dynamic Implications of Foreign Aid and its Variability," IMF Working Papers 05/119, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Bulír, Ales & Hamann, A. Javier, 2008. "Volatility of Development Aid: From the Frying Pan into the Fire?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2048-2066, October.
  5. Max Gillman & Anton Nakov, 2004. "Granger causality of the inflation-growth mirror in accession countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(4), pages 653-681, December.
  6. Paul Mosley & John Hudson & Arjan Verschoor, 2004. "Aid, Poverty Reduction and the 'New Conditionality'," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(496), pages F217-F243, 06.
  7. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  8. Hansen, Henrik & Tarp, Finn, 2001. "Aid and growth regressions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 547-570, April.
  9. Collier, Paul & Dollar, David, 2000. "Can the world cut poverty in half ? how policy reform and effective aid can meet international development goals," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2403, The World Bank.
  10. Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Henrik Hansen & Finn Tarp, 2004. "On The Empirics of Foreign Aid and Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(496), pages F191-F216, 06.
  11. Collier, Paul & Dollar, David, 1999. "Aid allocation and poverty reduction," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2041, The World Bank.
  12. Eifert, Benn & Gelb, Alan, 2005. "Improving the dynamics of aid : towards more predictable budget support," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3732, The World Bank.
  13. Paul Mosley & Abrar Suleiman, 2007. "Aid, Agriculture and Poverty in Developing Countries," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(1), pages 139-158, 02.
  14. Ale Bulir & A. Javier Hamann, 2003. "Aid Volatility: An Empirical Assessment," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(1), pages 4.
  15. Lele, Uma & Goldsmith, Arthur A, 1989. "The Development of National Agricultural Research Capacity: India's Experience with the Rockefeller Foundation and Its Significance for Africa," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(2), pages 305-43, January.
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