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Aid Volatility, Policy and Development

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  • Hudson, John
  • Mosley, Paul

Abstract

Summary We build on Bulir and Hamann's analysis of aid volatility [Bulir, A., & Hamann, J. (2003). Aid volatility: An empirical assessment. IMF Staff Papers, 50(1), 64-89; Bulir, A., & Hamann, J. (2008) Volatility of development aid: From the frying pan into the fire? Washington DC: IMF, paper submitted to this Special Section], showing that the conclusions reached depend on the dataset used. Their argument that the poorest countries have the highest volatility appears not to be correct. The impact of volatility on growth is negative overall, but differs between positive and negative volatility. The mix between "responsive" components of aid, for example, programme aid, and "proactive" components, for example, technical assistance, is important. Finally, we conclude that measures which increase trust between donor and recipient, and reductions in the degree of donor "oligopoly," reduce aid volatility without obviously reducing its effectiveness.

Suggested Citation

  • Hudson, John & Mosley, Paul, 2008. "Aid Volatility, Policy and Development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2082-2102, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:36:y:2008:i:10:p:2082-2102
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    Cited by:

    1. Brück, Tilman & Xu, Guo, 2012. "Who gives aid to whom and when? Aid accelerations, shocks and policies," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 593-606.
    2. Gualberti, Giorgio & Singer, Christine Eibs & Bazilian, Morgan, 2013. "The capacity to spend development funds in the energy sector," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 36-44.
    3. Ronald B. Davies & Stephan Klasen, 2013. "Of Donor Coordination, Free-Riding, Darlings, and Orphans: The Dependence of Bilateral Aid on Other Bilateral Giving," CESifo Working Paper Series 4177, CESifo Group Munich.
    4. Gustavo Javier Canavire‐Bacarreza & Eric Neumayer & Peter Nunnenkamp, 2015. "Why Aid is Unpredictable: An Empirical Analysis of the Gap Between Actual and Planned Aid Flows," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 440-463, 05-27.
    5. Eric Gabin Kilama, 2014. "Recipients aid absorption in the new development cooperation landscape," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(3), pages 1929-1944.
    6. Jay Kathavate, 2013. "Corruption, aid volatility & growth," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 1159-1169.
    7. Hudson, John, 2015. "Consequences of Aid Volatility for Macroeconomic Management and Aid Effectiveness," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 62-74.
    8. S. Guillaumont Jeanneney & S. J‐A. Tapsoba, 2012. "Aid and Income Stabilization," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 216-229, May.
    9. Rabia Butt & Attiya Yasmin Javid, 2013. "Foreign Aid and the Fiscal Behaviour of Government of Pakistan," PIDE-Working Papers 2013:96, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    10. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Aizenman, Joshua, 2010. "Aid volatility and poverty traps," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 1-7, January.
    11. Gravier-Rymaszewska, Joanna, 2012. "How Aid Supply Responds to Economic Crises: A Panel VAR Approach," WIDER Working Paper Series 025, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. repec:bla:asiaps:v:4:y:2017:i:3:p:386-404 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Jonathan Pickering & Paul Mitchell, 2017. "What drives national support for multilateral climate finance? International and domestic influences on Australia’s shifting stance," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 107-125, February.
    14. Letasi Iulai, 2014. "Aid Volatility: Is It a Problem in Tuvalu?," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(2), pages 379-394, May.
    15. David Antonio C., 2011. "How do International Financial Flows to Developing Countries Respond to Natural Disasters?," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 11(4), pages 1-38, December.
    16. Kathavate, Jay, 2013. "Direct & Indirect Effects of Aid Volatility on Growth: Do Stronger Institutions Play a Role?," MPRA Paper 45187, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2010. "Aid and Conditionality," Handbook of Development Economics, Elsevier.
    18. Bert D'Espallier & Marek Hudon & Ariane Szafarz, 2016. "Aid Volatility and Social Performance in Microfinance," Working Papers CEB 16-015, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    19. Paul Mosley, 2011. "RETRACTED ARTICLE: Trust and conditionality; Or, can the World Bank ‘Leopard’ change its spots?," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 483-483, September.
    20. Mosley, Paul, 2015. "Fiscal Composition and Aid Effectiveness: A Political Economy Model," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 106-115.
    21. Pallas, Sarah Wood & Ruger, Jennifer Prah, 2017. "Effects of donor proliferation in development aid for health on health program performance: A conceptual framework," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 177-186.
    22. Kathavate, Jay & Mallik, Girijasankar, 2012. "The impact of the Interaction between institutional quality and aid volatility on growth: theory and evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 716-724.
    23. Mosley, Paul, 2012. "Fiscal Composition and Aid Effectiveness: A Political-Economy Model," WIDER Working Paper Series 029, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    aid volatility disasters trust upside and downside volatility;

    JEL classification:

    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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