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The Volatility of Aid

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  • Fielding, David
  • Mavrotas, George

Abstract

Issues related to the volatility of aid flows are now becoming crucial in view of their relevance to the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals. The paper examines aid volatility using data for 66 aid recipients over the period 1973-2002. We improve upon earlier work in this important area by disaggregating total aid inflows into sector and programme aid. In this way they avoid focussing on a single aggregate, unlike most previous studies on aid volatility. They also adopt a different methodology to capture aid volatility. The institutional quality of the aid recipient affects the stability of sector aid but not that of programme assistance. Moreover, more open economies, which tend to be smaller and richer, ceteris paribus, are associated with more volatile sector aid flows. [Discussion Paper No. 2005/06]
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Suggested Citation

  • Fielding, David & Mavrotas, George, 2005. "The Volatility of Aid," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2005/06, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:dp2005-06
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Addison, Tony & Mavrotas, George & McGillivray, Mark, 2005. "Aid, Debt Relief and New Sources of Finance for Meeting the Millennium Development Goals," WIDER Working Paper Series 009, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
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    Cited by:

    1. Brück, Tilman & Xu, Guo, 2012. "Who gives aid to whom and when? Aid accelerations, shocks and policies," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 593-606.
    2. Lisa Chauvet & Patrick Guillaumont, 2009. "Aid, Volatility, and Growth Again: When Aid Volatility Matters and When it Does Not," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(s1), pages 452-463, August.
    3. Tony Addison & George Mavrotas & Mark McGillivray, 2005. "Development assistance and development finance: evidence and global policy agendas," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(6), pages 819-836.
    4. Bulír, Ales & Hamann, A. Javier, 2008. "Volatility of Development Aid: From the Frying Pan into the Fire?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2048-2066, October.
    5. Bazoumana Ouattara & Eric Strobl, 2008. "Aid, Policy and Growth: Does Aid Modality Matter?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 144(2), pages 347-365, July.
    6. Jay Kathavate, 2013. "Corruption, aid volatility & growth," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 1159-1169.
    7. Julia Cage, 2009. "Asymmetric information, rent extraction and aid efficiency," PSE Working Papers halshs-00575055, HAL.
    8. Hudson, John, 2015. "Consequences of Aid Volatility for Macroeconomic Management and Aid Effectiveness," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 62-74.
    9. Julia Cage, 2009. "Asymmetric information, rent extraction and aid efficiency," Working Papers halshs-00575055, HAL.
    10. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Aizenman, Joshua, 2010. "Aid volatility and poverty traps," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 1-7, January.
    11. Xavier Debrun & Peter S. Heller & Theo Thomas & Menachem Katz & Isabell Adenauer & Taline Koranchelian, 2006. "Making Fiscal Space Happen; Managing Fiscal Policy in a World of Scaled-Up Aid," IMF Working Papers 06/270, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Susanna Wolf, 2007. "Does Aid Improve Public Service Delivery?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 143(4), pages 650-672, December.
    13. Gaoussou Diarra, 2011. "Aid unpredictability and absorptive capacity: analyzing disbursement delays in Africa," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(1), pages 1004-1017.
    14. Raghbendra Jha & T. Palanivel, 2007. "Resource Augmentation for Meeting the Millennium Development Goals in the Asia Pacific Region," Departmental Working Papers 2007-02, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    15. Kathavate, Jay, 2013. "Direct & Indirect Effects of Aid Volatility on Growth: Do Stronger Institutions Play a Role?," MPRA Paper 45187, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Gunatilake, H. & Fabella, R.V & Lagman-Martin, A., 2011. "Foreign Aid, Aid Effectiveness and the New Aid Paradigm: A Review," Sri Lankan Journal of Agricultural Economics, Sri Lanka Agricultural Economics Association (SAEA), vol. 0, pages 1-44.
    17. David Fielding & George Mavrotas, 2008. "Aid Volatility and Donor-Recipient Characteristics in 'Difficult Partnership Countries'," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 75(299), pages 481-494, August.
    18. George Mavrotas & Peter Nunnenkamp, 2007. "Foreign Aid Heterogeneity: Issues and Agenda," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 143(4), pages 585-595, December.
    19. Coviello, Decio & Islam, Roumeen, 2006. "Does aid help improve economic institutions ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3990, The World Bank.
    20. Feeny, Simon & de Silva, Ashton, 2012. "Measuring absorptive capacity constraints to foreign aid," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 725-733.
    21. Matthew Andrews & Vera Wilhelm, 2008. "Thinking about Aid Predictability," World Bank Other Operational Studies 11141, The World Bank.
    22. Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2007. "The Allocation of volatile aid and economic growth: Evidence and a suggestive theory," Discussion Paper Series 2007_07, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Mar 2007.
    23. Neanidis, Kyriakos C. & Varvarigos, Dimitrios, 2009. "The allocation of volatile aid and economic growth: Theory and evidence," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 447-462, December.

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