IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tin/wpaper/20100002.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Economic Growth and the Volatility of Foreign Aid

Author

Listed:
  • Michal Chervin

    (University of Amsterdam)

  • Sweder van Wijnbergen

    (University of Amsterdam)

Abstract

Foreign aid’s effectiveness in promoting economic growth remains mired in controversy.We examine the impact of the volatility of aid on economic growth, controlling for the level of aid. A four-year panel analysis is conducted encompassing 155 countries over the period 1966-2001. We find that once the volatility of aid is controlled for, aid has a positive impact on economic growth. Correspondingly, volatility of aid flows is found to be negatively related to growth. We found no significant link between investment and foreign aid, but a positive correlation between aid and consumption and a negative link between aid volatility and consumption. But our results also indicate that aid has become a source of volatility rather than insuring against it, and in that way may have become inimical to economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Michal Chervin & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2010. "Economic Growth and the Volatility of Foreign Aid," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-002/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20100002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://papers.tinbergen.nl/10002.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stéphane Pallage & Michel A. Robe, 2001. "Foreign Aid and the Business Cycle," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(4), pages 641-672, November.
    2. Alesina, Alberto & Dollar, David, 2000. "Who Gives Foreign Aid to Whom and Why?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 33-63, March.
    3. Robert Lensink & Oliver Morrissey, 2000. "Aid instability as a measure of uncertainty and the positive impact of aid on growth," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 31-49.
    4. David E. Bloom & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "Geography, Demography, and Economic Growth in Africa," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 207-296.
    5. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    6. Stanley Fischer, 1991. "Growth, Macroeconomics, and Development," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 329-379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 417-458, December.
    8. David Dollar & Craig Burnside, 2000. "Aid, Policies, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 847-868, September.
    9. Mr. Dhaneshwar Ghura & Mr. Michael T. Hadjimichael, 1995. "Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 1995/136, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Papanek, Gustav F, 1973. "Aid, Foreign Private Investment, Savings, and Growth in Less Developed Countries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(1), pages 120-130, Jan.-Feb..
    11. Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Henrik Hansen & Finn Tarp, 2004. "On The Empirics of Foreign Aid and Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(496), pages 191-216, June.
    12. Michael A. Clemens & Steven Radelet & Rikhil Bhavnani, 2004. "Counting chickens when they hatch: The short-term effect of aid on growth," International Finance 0407010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. van Wijnbergen, Sweder J G, 1984. "The 'Dutch Disease': A Disease after All?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(373), pages 41-55, March.
    14. Hansen, Henrik & Tarp, Finn, 2001. "Aid and growth regressions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 547-570, April.
    15. Easterly, William, 1993. "How much do distortions affect growth?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 187-212, November.
    16. Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2008. "Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 643-665, November.
    17. Stéphane Pallage & Michel A. Robe & Catherine Bérubé, 2006. "The Potential of Foreign Aid as Insurance," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(3), pages 1-5.
    18. Voivodas, Constantin S., 1973. "Exports, foreign capital inflow and economic growth," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 337-349, November.
    19. Mosley, Paul & Hudson, John & Horrell, Sara, 1987. "Aid, the Public Sector and the Market in Less Developed Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(387), pages 616-641, September.
    20. Ale Bulir & A. Javier Hamann, 2003. "Aid Volatility: An Empirical Assessment," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(1), pages 1-4.
    21. repec:kap:iaecre:v:11:y:2005:i:1:p:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. C. S. Adam & S. A. O’Connell, 1999. "Aid, Taxation and Development in Sub‐Saharan Africa," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 225-253, November.
    23. repec:bla:kyklos:v:38:y:1985:i:2:p:216-32 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. repec:dgr:rugcds:199906 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Mosley, Paul, 1980. "Aid, Savings and Growth Revisited," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 42(2), pages 79-95, May.
    26. Boone, Peter, 1996. "Politics and the effectiveness of foreign aid," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 289-329, February.
    27. Abdiweli Ali & Hodan Isse, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Aid on Growth," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, February.
    28. Ram D. Singh, 1985. "State Intervention, Foreign Economic Aid, Savings and Growth in LDCs: Some Recent Evidence," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 216-232, May.
    29. Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "The role of macroeconomic factors in growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 485-512, December.
    30. Burnside, Craig & Dollar, David, 2004. "Aid, policies, and growth : revisiting the evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3251, The World Bank.
    31. Sandrina Berthault Moreira, 2005. "Evaluating The Impact Of Foreign Aid On Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Study," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 30(2), pages 25-48, December.
    32. Fischer, S., 1991. "Growth, Macroeconomics, and Development," Working papers 580, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    33. repec:bla:reviec:v:9:y:2001:i:4:p:641-72 is not listed on IDEAS
    34. Stanley Fischer, 1991. "Growth, Macroeconomics, and Development," NBER Working Papers 3702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jones, Yakama Manty, 2013. "Testing the foreign aid-led growth hypothesis in West Africa," MPRA Paper 50361, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Bah, El-hadj M. & Ward, Jeremy, 2011. "Effectiveness of foreign aid in Small Island Developing States," MPRA Paper 32062, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Yakama Manty Jones, 2013. "Testing the Foreign Aid-led Growth Hypothesis in West Africa," Management Working Papers 3, Birkbeck Department of Management, revised Apr 2013.
    4. Sambit Bhattacharyya & Maurizio Intartaglia, 2021. "Foreign aid network diversification and its impact on growth, growth acceleration, and growth spell," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 1216-1242, August.
    5. Santos Bila & Mduduzi Biyase & Matias Farahane & Thomas Udimal, 2023. "Foreign Aid And Economic Growth In Sub-Saharan African Countries," Economics Working Papers edwrg-03-2023, College of Business and Economics, University of Johannesburg, South Africa, revised 2023.
    6. Kathavate, Jay, 2013. "Direct & Indirect Effects of Aid Volatility on Growth: Do Stronger Institutions Play a Role?," MPRA Paper 45187, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Edem Kwame Mensah Klobodu & Samuel Adams, 2016. "Capital Flows and Economic Growth in Ghana," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 291-307, September.
    8. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Nihal Bayraktar, 2020. "Aid Volatility, Human Capital, and Growth," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(3), pages 401-448.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kathavate, Jay, 2013. "Direct & Indirect Effects of Aid Volatility on Growth: Do Stronger Institutions Play a Role?," MPRA Paper 45187, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2010. "Aid and Conditionality," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4415-4523, Elsevier.
    3. Nuruddeen USMAN & Martins.O. APINRAN, 2019. "The Impact of Aid and Macroeconomic Policy on Growth in Nigeria: A Bounds Testing Approach," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 9(5), pages 581-603, May.
    4. Mark McGillivray & Simon Feeny & Niels Hermes & Robert Lensink, 2005. "It Works; It Doesn't; It Can, But that Depends...: 50 Years of Controversy Over the Macroeconomic Impact of Development Aid," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2005-54, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Innocent .U. Duru & Bartholomew .O.N. Okafor & Millicent Adanne Eze & Gabriel .O. Ebenyi, 2020. "Foreign Aid and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria," Growth, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 7(1), pages 35-50.
    6. Evelyn Wamboye & Abel Adekola & Bruno S. Sergi, 2014. "Foreign aid, legal origin, economic growth and Africa’s least developed countries," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 14(4), pages 335-357, October.
    7. Lessmann, Christian & Markwardt, Gunther, 2012. "Aid, Growth and Devolution," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(9), pages 1723-1749.
    8. Bazoumana Ouattara & Eric Strobl, 2008. "Aid, Policy and Growth: Does Aid Modality Matter?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 144(2), pages 347-365, July.
    9. Mark McGillivray & Simon Feeny & Niels Hermes & Robert Lensink, 2006. "Controversies over the impact of development aid: it works; it doesn't; it can, but that depends …," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(7), pages 1031-1050.
    10. Mark McGillivray, 2006. "Aid Allocation and Fragile States," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2006-01, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    11. Wamboye, Evelyn & Adekola, Abel, 2013. "Foreign Aid, Legal Origin, Economic Growth and Africa’s Least Developed Countries," MPRA Paper 47846, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Wamboye, Evelyn, 2012. "Quantity or quality? foreign aid implications on economic growth in least developed countries," MPRA Paper 39518, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Mark McGillivray & Simon Feeny, 2008. "Aid and Growth in Fragile States," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2008-03, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    14. Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2007. "The Allocation of volatile aid and economic growth: Evidence and a suggestive theory," Discussion Paper Series 2007_07, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Mar 2007.
    15. Juliana Yael Milovich, 2017. "The long-term impact of U.S. aid on poverty alleviation: the role of a seat in the Security Council of the United Nations," Working Papers hal-04141612, HAL.
    16. Juliana Yael Milovich, 2018. "Does Aid Reduce Poverty?," OPHI Working Papers ophiwp122.pdf, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
    17. Juliana Yael Milovich, 2017. "The long-term impact of U.S. aid on poverty alleviation: the role of a seat in the Security Council of the United Nations," EconomiX Working Papers 2017-47, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    18. Akande, Emmanuel & Ola-David, Oluyomi, 2010. "The Two-Gap Model of Economic Growth in Nigeria: Vector Autoregression (VAR) Approach," Conference papers 330245, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    19. Strand, Jon, 2009. ""Revenue management"effects related to financial flows generated by climate policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5053, The World Bank.
    20. Almuth Scholl, 2009. "Aid Effectiveness and Limited Enforceable Conditionality," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(2), pages 377-391, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    foreign aid; volatility; economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20100002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tinbergen Office +31 (0)10-4088900 (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tinbenl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.