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On the Potential of Foreign Aid as Insurance

  • Stéphane Pallage
  • Michel A. Robe
  • Catherine Bérubé

In this paper, we argue that it would be fruitful to revisit foreign aid's potential as an insurance mechanism against macroeconomic shocks. In a simple model of aid flows between two endowment economies, we show that at least three fourths of the large welfare costs of macroeconomic fluctuations in poor countries could be alleviated by a simple reallocation of aid flows across time.

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Paper provided by CIRPEE in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 0404.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:lvl:lacicr:0404
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  7. Lahiri, Sajal & Raimondos-Moller, Pascalis, 1997. "Competition for aid and trade policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 369-385, November.
  8. M. Ayhan Kose & Raymond Riezman, 1999. "Trade Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Africa," CESifo Working Paper Series 203, CESifo Group Munich.
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  11. Lahiri, Sajal & Raimondos-Moller, Paschalis, 1999. "Lobbying by ethnic groups and aid allocation," Economics Discussion Papers 9999, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
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  13. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar & Terrones, Marco E., 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," IZA Discussion Papers 702, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  14. Hansen, Henrik & Tarp, Finn, 2001. "Aid and growth regressions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 547-570, April.
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  16. Erwin H Tiongson & Benedict J. Clements & Sanjeev Gupta, 2003. "Foreign Aid and Consumption Smoothing; Evidence From Global Food Aid," IMF Working Papers 03/40, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Dollar, David & Easterly, William, 1999. "The search for the key : aid, investment, and policies in Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2070, The World Bank.
  18. Ale Bulir & A. Javier Hamann, 2003. "Aid Volatility: An Empirical Assessment," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(1), pages 4.
  19. Pemberton, James, 1996. "Growth trends, cyclical fluctuations, and welfare with non-expected utility preferences," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 387-392, March.
  20. Svensson, Jakob, 2003. "Why conditional aid does not work and what can be done about it?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 381-402, April.
  21. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1995. "Nominal interest rates, consumption booms, and lack of credibility: A quantitative examination," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 357-378, April.
  22. Robert E. Lucas Jr., 2003. "Macroeconomic Priorities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 1-14, March.
  23. William Easterly, 2003. "Can Foreign Aid Buy Growth?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 23-48, Summer.
  24. Easterly, William, 1999. "The ghost of financing gap: testing the growth model used in the international financial institutions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 423-438, December.
  25. Svensson, Jakob, 1998. "Foreign aid and rent-seeking," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1880, The World Bank.
  26. Boone, Peter, 1996. "Politics and the effectiveness of foreign aid," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 289-329, February.
  27. Murshed, S Mansoob & Sen, Somnath, 1995. "Aid Conditionality and Military Expenditure Reduction in Developing Countries: Models of Asymmetric Information," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 498-509, March.
  28. Henrik Hansen & Finn Tarp, 2000. "Aid effectiveness disputed," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 375-398, 04.
  29. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  30. Jim Dolmas, 1998. "Risk Preferences and the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(3), pages 646-676, July.
  31. Kose, M. Ayhan, 2002. "Explaining business cycles in small open economies: 'How much do world prices matter?'," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 299-327, March.
  32. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
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