IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/wdevel/v69y2015icp44-61.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Business Cycle Fluctuations, Large Macroeconomic Shocks, and Development Aid

Author

Listed:
  • Dabla-Norris, Era
  • Minoiu, Camelia
  • Zanna, Luis-Felipe

Abstract

We examine the cyclical properties of development aid using bilateral data for 22 donors and 113 recipients during 1970–2005. We find that bilateral aid flows are on average procyclical with respect to the business cycle in both donor and recipient countries. While aid outlays contract sharply during severe downturns in donor countries, they rise steeply when aid-receiving countries experience large adverse shocks. Our findings suggest that development aid may play an important cushioning role in developing countries, but only during times of severe macroeconomic stress. Our results are robust to alternate definitions of aid flows, specifications, and estimation techniques.

Suggested Citation

  • Dabla-Norris, Era & Minoiu, Camelia & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2015. "Business Cycle Fluctuations, Large Macroeconomic Shocks, and Development Aid," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 44-61.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:69:y:2015:i:c:p:44-61
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2013.12.019
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X13003033
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ball, Richard, 2010. "Cultural values and public policy: The case of international development aid," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 3-16, February.
    2. Sanjay Reddy & Camelia Minoiu, 2009. "Real Income Stagnation of Countries 1960-2001," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 1-23.
    3. Pallage, Stephane & Robe, Michel A, 2001. "Foreign Aid and the Business Cycle," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(4), pages 641-672, November.
    4. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Panizza, Ugo & Stein, Ernesto, 2007. "The cyclical nature of North-South FDI flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 104-130, February.
    5. Andrew Mold & Dilan Ölcer & Annalisa Prizon, 2008. "The Fallout from the Financial Crisis (3): Will Aid Budgets Fall Victim to the Credit Crisis?," OECD Development Centre Policy Insights 85, OECD Publishing.
    6. Simone Bertoli & Giovanni Andrea Cornia & Francesco Manaresi, 2007. "Aid performance and its determinants. A comparison of Italy with the OECD norm," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 60(242), pages 271-321.
    7. Paul Collier & Benedikt Goderis, 2009. "Does Aid Mitigate External Shocks?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(s1), pages 429-451, August.
    8. Pushan Dutt & Daniel Traca, 2010. "Corruption and Bilateral Trade Flows: Extortion or Evasion?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 843-860, November.
    9. Bulír, Ales & Hamann, A. Javier, 2008. "Volatility of Development Aid: From the Frying Pan into the Fire?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2048-2066, October.
    10. Bruno, Giovanni S.F., 2005. "Approximating the bias of the LSDV estimator for dynamic unbalanced panel data models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 361-366, June.
    11. Deaton, Angus & Miller, Ron, 1996. "International Commodity Prices, Macroeconomic Performance and Politics in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 5(3), pages 99-191, October.
    12. Fleck, Robert K. & Kilby, Christopher, 2010. "Changing aid regimes? U.S. foreign aid from the Cold War to the War on Terror," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 185-197, March.
    13. Rand, John & Tarp, Finn, 2002. "Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2071-2088, December.
    14. Svensson, Jakob, 2000. "When is foreign aid policy credible? Aid dependence and conditionality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 61-84, February.
    15. Dang, Hai-Anh & Knack, Stephen & Rogers, F. Halsey, 2013. "International aid and financial crises in donor countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 232-250.
    16. Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Howard J. Wall, 2007. "The determinants of aid in the post-cold war era," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 533-548.
    17. Barry Eichengreen & Douglas A. Irwin, 1998. "The Role of History in Bilateral Trade Flows," NBER Chapters,in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 33-62 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Pierre-Olivier Beffy & Patrice Ollivaud & Pete Richardson & Franck Sédillot, 2006. "New OECD Methods for Supply-side and Medium-term Assessments: A Capital Services Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 482, OECD Publishing.
    19. Mark McGillivray, 2005. "What determines African bilateral aid receipts?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(8), pages 1003-1018.
    20. Anke Hoeffler & Verity Outram, 2011. "Need, Merit, or Self‐Interest—What Determines the Allocation of Aid?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 237-250, May.
    21. Dollar, David & Levin, Victoria, 2006. "The Increasing Selectivity of Foreign Aid, 1984-2003," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2034-2046, December.
    22. Rachel Male, 2011. "Developing Country Business Cycles: Characterizing the Cycle," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(0), pages 20-39, May.
    23. Kiviet, Jan F., 1995. "On bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 53-78, July.
    24. Ronald U. Mendoza & Ryan Jones & Gabriel Vergara, 2009. "Will the global financial crisis lead to lower foreign aid? A first look at United States ODA," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2009-01, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
    25. Stéphane Pallage & Michel A. Robe & Catherine Bérubé, 2006. "The Potential of Foreign Aid as Insurance," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(3), pages 1-5.
    26. Round, Jeffery I. & Odedokun, Matthew, 2004. "Aid effort and its determinants," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 293-309.
    27. Riccardo Faini, 2006. "Foreign aid and fiscal policy," Development Working Papers 212, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
    28. Arndt Channing & Jones Sam & Tarp Finn, 2010. "Aid, Growth, and Development: Have We Come Full Circle?," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-29, December.
    29. Berthelemy, Jean-Claude & Tichit, Ariane, 2004. "Bilateral donors' aid allocation decisions--a three-dimensional panel analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 253-274.
    30. David Roodman, 2005. "An Index of Donor Performance-Revised August 2005," Working Papers 67, Center for Global Development.
    31. Raddatz, Claudio, 2007. "Are external shocks responsible for the instability of output in low-income countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 155-187, September.
    32. Ball, Richard & Johnson, Christopher, 1996. "Political, Economic, and Humanitarian Motivations for PL 480 Food Aid: Evidence from Africa," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(3), pages 515-537, April.
    33. Harrigan, Jane & Wang, Chengang, 2011. "A New Approach to the Allocation of Aid Among Developing Countries: Is the USA Different from the Rest?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(8), pages 1281-1293, August.
    34. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
    35. Maddala, G S & Rao, A S, 1973. "Tests for Serial Correlation in Regression Models with Lagged Dependent Variables and Serially Correlated Errors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(4), pages 761-774, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Heinrich, Tobias & Kobayashi, Yoshiharu & Bryant, Kristin A., 2016. "Public Opinion and Foreign Aid Cuts in Economic Crises," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 66-79.
    2. Juliana Dutra Araujo & Antonio David & Carlos van Hombeeck & Chris Papageorgiou, 2015. "Joining the Club? Procyclicality of Private Capital Inflows in Low Income Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 15/163, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2016. "Aid for Trade and trade tax revenues in developing countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 9-22.
    4. repec:eee:riibaf:v:45:y:2018:i:c:p:15-29 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2017. "Structural economic vulnerability, openness and bilateral development aid flows," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 77-95.
    6. repec:eee:quaeco:v:67:y:2018:i:c:p:311-325 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:wsi:jicepx:v:08:y:2017:i:01:n:s1793993317500053 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Gallemore, Caleb & Jespersen, Kristjan, 2016. "Transnational Markets for Sustainable Development Governance: The Case of REDD+," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 79-94.
    9. Araujo, Juliana D. & David, Antonio C. & van Hombeeck, Carlos & Papageorgiou, Chris, 2017. "Joining the club? Procyclicality of private capital inflows in lower income developing economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 157-182.
    10. repec:bla:ecaffa:v:37:y:2017:i:1:p:66-84 is not listed on IDEAS

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:69:y:2015:i:c:p:44-61. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/worlddev .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.