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Developing Country Business Cycles: Characterizing the Cycle

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  • Rachel Male

Abstract

Classical business cycles, following Burns and Mitchell (1946), can be defined as the sequential pattern of expansions and contractions in aggregate economic activity. Recently, Harding and Pagan (2002, 2006) have provided an econometric toolkit for the analysis of these cycles, and this has resulted in a recent surge in researchers using these methods to analyze developing country business cycles. However, the existing literature consists of diminutive samples, and the majority of the studies fail to consider the statistical significance of the concordance statistics. To address this shortfall, this paper examines the business cycle characteristics and synchronicity for thirty-two developing countries. Furthermore, the United States, United Kingdom, and Japan are included. This provides benchmarks upon which to compare the characteristics of the developing country cycles and also to examine the degree of synchronization between developed and developing countries. Significantly, this research reveals that business cycles of developing countries are not, as previously believed, significantly shorter than those of the developed countries. However, the amplitude of both expansion and contraction phases tends to be greater in the developing countries. Furthermore, a clear relationship is exhibited between the timing of business cycle fluctuations and periods of significant regional crises, such as the Asian financial crisis. However, the more specific timing of the onset of these fluctuations appears to be determined by country-specific factors. Moreover, there are no clear patterns of concordance either within regions or between developed and developing country business cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Rachel Male, 2011. "Developing Country Business Cycles: Characterizing the Cycle," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(0), pages 20-39, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:47:y:2011:i:0:p:20-39
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May.
    2. Rachel Male, 2010. "Developing Country Business Cycles: Characterising the Cycle," Working Papers 663, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    3. Calderon, Cesar & Chong, Alberto & Stein, Ernesto, 2007. "Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization: Are developing countries any different?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 2-21, March.
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    7. Stan du Plessis, 2006. "Business Cycles in Emerging market Economies: A New View of the Stylised Facts," Working Papers 02/2006, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
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    10. Mohanty, Jaya & Singh, Bhupal & Jain, Rajeev, 2003. "Business cycles and leading indicators of industrial activity in India," MPRA Paper 12149, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
    12. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1990. "Business cycles: real facts and a monetary myth," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 3-18.
    13. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Emilio Espino & Julian Kozlowski & Juan M. Sánchez, 2013. "Regionalization vs. globalization," Working Papers 2013-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    2. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Chris Otrok, "undated". "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Working Paper 164456, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    3. Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Dibooglu, Sel & Kutan, Ali M., 2013. "Measuring financial stress in transition economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 597-611.
    4. Dabla-Norris, Era & Minoiu, Camelia & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2015. "Business Cycle Fluctuations, Large Macroeconomic Shocks, and Development Aid," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 44-61.
    5. Romain Houssa & Jolan Mohimont & Christopher Otrok, 2015. "The Sources of Business Cycles in a Low Income Country," IMF Working Papers 15/40, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Charles Abuka & Ronnie K Alinda & Camelia Minoiu & José-Luis Peydró & Andrea Presbitero, 2015. "Monetary Policy in a Developing Country; Loan Applications and Real Effects," IMF Working Papers 15/270, International Monetary Fund.

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