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Business Cycles in Emerging market Economies: A New View of the Stylised Facts

  • Stan du Plessis


    (Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University)

This paper builds on an earlier work in business cycle theory - explicitly in the classical cycle tradition of Burns and Mitchell (1946) and the more recent work by Harding and Pagan (e.g.: 2002a; 2005b; 2005a) - to identify and analyse business cycles in emerging market economies. The goal is to revisit the work of for example Agénor, McDermott and Prasad (2000), whom have established a set of stylised facts for business cycle fluctuations in developing countries. Agénor, et. al. (2000) established these stylised facts using the presently standard method of analysing the features of serially correlated deviations from trends (idenified with statistical techniques such as the Hodrick-Prescott filter) in certain macroeconomic time series, including real GDP, the price level, and components of final demand. The alternative method, implemented in this paper, uses an algorithm of Bry and Boschan (1971), and the recent work of Harding and Pagan to identify the various stylised facts regarding the duration, steepness, amplitude and concordance of these fluctuations in emerging market economies.

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Paper provided by Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 02/2006.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:sza:wpaper:wpapers16
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  1. Blinder, Alan S. & Fischer, Stanley, 1981. "Inventories, rational expectations, and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 277-304.
  2. M. Ayhan Kose & Marco Terrones & Eswar Prasad, 2003. "Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy: An Empirical Exploration," IMF Working Papers 03/246, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Adrian Pagan & Don Harding, 2005. "A suggested framework for classifying the modes of cycle research," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 151-159.
  4. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
  5. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2003. "A comparison of two business cycle dating methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1681-1690, July.
  6. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2002. "The Case for Restricting Fiscal Policy Discretion," CEPR Discussion Papers 3277, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. C. John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 2000. "Concordance in Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 00/37, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1994. "What Ends Recessions?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 13-80 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Stephane Pallage & Michel Robe, 1998. "Foreign Aid and the Business Cycle," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 63, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
  11. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May.
  12. Christina D. Romer, 1999. "Changes in Business Cycles: Evidence and Explanations," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 23-44, Spring.
  13. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2001. "Extracting, Using and Analysing Cyclical Information," MPRA Paper 15, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. N. Gregory Mankiw, 2000. "The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff Between Inflation and Unemployment," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1905, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  15. C. John McDermott & Eswar Prasad & Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1999. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 99/35, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2003. "Rejoinder to James Hamilton," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1695-1698, July.
  17. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, December.
  18. Bulir, Ales & Hamann, A. Javier, 2001. "How Volatile and Unpredictable are Aid Flows, and What are the Policy Implications?," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
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