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Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles

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  • Aastveit, Knut Are
  • Jore, Anne Sofie
  • Ravazzolo, Francesco

Abstract

We define and forecast classical business cycle turning points for the Norwegian economy. When defining reference business cycles, we compare a univariate and a multivariate Bry–Boschan approach with univariate Markov-switching models and Markov-switching factor models. On the basis of a receiver operating characteristic curve methodology and a comparison of the business cycle turning points of Norway’s main trading partners, we find that a Markov-switching factor model provides the most reasonable definition of Norwegian business cycles for the sample 1978Q1–2011Q4. In a real-time out-of-sample forecasting exercise, focusing on the last recession, we show that univariate Markov-switching models applied to surveys and a financial conditions index are timely and accurate in calling the last peak in real time. However, the models are less accurate and timely in calling the trough in real time.

Suggested Citation

  • Aastveit, Knut Are & Jore, Anne Sofie & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016. "Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 283-292.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:32:y:2016:i:2:p:283-292
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.06.006
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    2. Демешев Борис Борисович & Малаховская Оксана Анатольевна, 2016. "Макроэкономическое Прогнозирование С Помощью Bvar Литтермана," Higher School of Economics Economic Journal Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 20(4), pages 691-710.
    3. Sergey V. Smirnov & Nikolay V. Kondrashov & Anna V. Petronevich, 2017. "Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(1), pages 53-73, May.
    4. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2021. "The Macroeconomy as a Random Forest," Working Papers 21-05, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    5. Foroni, Claudia & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Rossini, Luca, 2023. "Are low frequency macroeconomic variables important for high frequency electricity prices?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    6. Agudze, Komla M. & Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2022. "Markov switching panel with endogenous synchronization effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 230(2), pages 281-298.
    7. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2017. "Real-time determination of credit cycle phases in emerging markets," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps17, Bank of Russia.
    8. Aastveit, Knut Are & Anundsen, André K. & Herstad, Eyo I., 2019. "Residential investment and recession predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1790-1799.
    9. van Os, Bram & van Dijk, Dick, 2024. "Accelerating peak dating in a dynamic factor Markov-switching model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 313-323.
    10. Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2020. "Words are the New Numbers: A Newsy Coincident Index of the Business Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 393-409, April.
    11. Scott W. Hegerty, 2019. "Common Baltic-Nordic business cycles: Correlation- versus Markov-switching approaches," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 13(4), December.
    12. Brubakk, Leif & ter Ellen, Saskia & Robstad, Ørjan & Xu, Hong, 2022. "The macroeconomic effects of forward communication," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    13. Heinrich, Markus & Carstensen, Kai & Reif, Magnus & Wolters, Maik, 2017. "Predicting Ordinary and Severe Recessions with a Three-State Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model. An Application to the German Business Cycle," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168206, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Hegerty Scott William, 2017. "Common Cycles and Baltic-Nordic Economic Integration," Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 31(1), pages 70-81, August.
    15. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87.
    16. Agnieszka Gehringer & Thomas Mayer, 2021. "Measuring the Business Cycle Chronology with a Novel Business Cycle Indicator for Germany," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(1), pages 71-89, April.
    17. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2019. "Determination of the Current Phase of the Credit Cycle in Emerging Markets," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(2), pages 28-42, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle; Dating rules; Turning points; Real-time data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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