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Dating the Turning Points of Nordic Business Cycles

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  • Peter F. Christoffersen

Abstract

When were the significant turning points in business activity in the Nordic countries during the last fourty years? How frequent, long, and sharp were the contractions? This paper provides answers to these questions by applying the Bry and Boschan (1971) algorithms, which have been used to analyze business cycle turns in several countries, in particular the United States. Applying the same methods for Nordic countries it is found that contractions were unusually long and frequent in Sweden, while expansions were unusually long in Finland and Norway. However, contractions were not necessarily sharper in Sweden when compared with the other Nordic countries. Surprisingly, not much evidence of a common Nordic cycle is found. It appears instead that Sweden and Denmark tend to mimic the downturns in the G-7 countries more closely than Finland and Norway.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter F. Christoffersen, "undated". "Dating the Turning Points of Nordic Business Cycles," EPRU Working Paper Series 00-13, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:kud:epruwp:00-13
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    File URL: http://www.econ.ku.dk/epru/files/wp/00-13.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Allan Timmermann, 2000. "Firm Size and Cyclical Variations in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1229-1262, June.
    2. Watson, Mark W, 1994. "Business-Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 24-46, March.
    3. Michael Bergman & Stefan Gerlach & Lars Jonung, 1992. "External influences in Nordic business cycles, 1870–1988," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fink, Christopher & Raatz, Katharina & Weigert, Florian, 2014. "Do Mutual Funds Outperform During Recessions? International (Counter-) Evidence," Working Papers on Finance 1415, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    2. Aastveit, Knut Are & Jore, Anne Sofie & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016. "Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 283-292.
    3. Kufenko, Vadim, 2016. "Spurious periodicities in cliometric series: Simultaneous testing," Violette Reihe: Schriftenreihe des Promotionsschwerpunkts "Globalisierung und Beschäftigung" 48/2016, University of Hohenheim, Carl von Ossietzky University Oldenburg, Evangelisches Studienwerk.
    4. Louise Holm, 2016. "The Swedish business cycle, 1969-2013," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2015(2), pages 1-22.
    5. Legrand, Romain, 2014. "Euro introduction: Has there been a structural change? Study on 10 European Union countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 136-151.

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