Business-Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy
Average postwar expansions are twice as long as prewar expansions and contractions are one-half as long. This paper investigates three possible explanations. The first explanation is that shocks to the economy have been smaller in the postwar period. The second explanation is that the composition of output has shifted from very cyclical sectors to less cyclical sectors. The third explanation is that the apparent stabilization is largely spurious and is caused by differences in the way that prewar and postwar business-cycle reference dates were chosen by the National Bureau of Economic Research The evidence presented in this paper favors this third explanation. Copyright 1994 by American Economic Association.
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Volume (Year): 84 (1994)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 24-46
| Handle: | RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:84:y:1994:i:1:p:24-46 |
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References listed on IDEAS
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- Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1992.
"Have Postwar Economic Fluctuations Been Stabilized?,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 993-1005, September.
- Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1990. "Have postwar economic fluctuations been stabilized?," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 33, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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- Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gord86-1.
- Martin Neil Baily, 1978. "Stabilization Policy and Private Economic Behavior," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 9(1), pages 11-60.
- King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I., 1994. "Real business cycles and the test of the Adelmans," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 405-438, April.
- Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser, 1989. "Real business cycles and the test of the Adelmans," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- King, R.G. & Plosser, C.I., 1989. "Real Business Cycles And The Test Of The Adelmans," RCER Working Papers 204, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser, 1989. "Real Business Cycles and the Test of the Adelmans," NBER Working Papers 3160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1.
- Wesley Clair Mitchell, 1927. "Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mitc27-1. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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