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Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices

Author

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  • Sergey V. Smirnov

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics)

  • Nikolay V. Kondrashov

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics)

  • Anna V. Petronevich

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics
    Ca’Foscari University of Venice
    Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne
    Paris School of Economics)

Abstract

This paper establishes a reference chronology for the Russian economic cycle from the early 1980s to mid-2015. To detect peaks and troughs, we tested nine monthly indices as a reference series, three methods of seasonal adjustments (X-12-ARIMA, TRAMO/SEATS, and CAMPLET), and three methods for dating cyclical turning points (local min/max, Bry–Boschan method, and Markov-switching model). As these more or less formal methods led to different estimates, any sensible choice was only possible on the grounds of informal considerations. The final set of turning points looks plausible and separates expansions and contractions in an explicable manner, but further discussions are needed to establish a consensus between experts.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergey V. Smirnov & Nikolay V. Kondrashov & Anna V. Petronevich, 2017. "Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(1), pages 53-73, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:jbuscr:v:13:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s41549-017-0014-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s41549-017-0014-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Sergey V. Smirnov & Nikolay V. Kondrashov, 2019. "Indices of Regional Economic Activity for Russia," Societies and Political Orders in Transition, in: Sergey Smirnov & Ataman Ozyildirim & Paulo Picchetti (ed.), Business Cycles in BRICS, pages 363-375, Springer.
    2. Gregory Brock & Constantin Ogloblin, 2018. "Russian 1998–2007 TFP decomposed: some inspiration emerging from inherited Soviet legacy," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 135-151, May.
    3. Pönkä, Harri & Zheng, Yi, 2019. "The role of oil prices on the Russian business cycle," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 70-78.
    4. Barend Abeln & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs, 2023. "CAMPLET: Seasonal Adjustment Without Revisions," SpringerBriefs in Economics, in: Seasonal Adjustment Without Revisions, chapter 0, pages 7-29, Springer.
    5. Wang, Kai-Hua & Liu, Lu & Li, Xin & Oana-Ramona, Lobonţ, 2022. "Do oil price shocks drive unemployment? Evidence from Russia and Canada," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    6. Balashova, Svetlana & Serletis, Apostolos, 2020. "Oil prices shocks and the Russian economy," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).

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    Keywords

    Economic cycle; Turning points; Recession; Russia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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