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Forecasting cyclical turning points: the record in the past three recessions

Author

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  • Stephen K. McNees

Abstract

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Suggested Citation

  • Stephen K. McNees, 1987. "Forecasting cyclical turning points: the record in the past three recessions," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 31-40.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbne:y:1987:i:mar:p:31-40
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Joseph H. Haimowitz, 1998. "The longevity of expansions," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 83(Q IV), pages 13-34.
    2. Palle S. Andersen, 1997. "Forecast errors and financial developments," BIS Working Papers 51, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Sergey V. Smirnov & Nikolay V. Kondrashov & Anna V. Petronevich, 2017. "Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(1), pages 53-73, May.
    4. Jones, Adam T. & Ogden, Richard E., 2017. "A day late and a dollar short: The effect of policy uncertainty on fed forecast errors," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 112-122.
    5. Rolando F. Peláez, 2015. "A recession‐and‐state forecasting model," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 81(4), pages 1025-1039, April.
    6. Andrew J. Filardo, 1999. "How reliable are recession prediction models?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 84(Q II), pages 35-55.
    7. Stephen K. McNees, 1992. "The 1990-91 recession in historical perspective," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 3-22.
    8. Sergey Smirnov, 2011. "Those Unpredictable Recessions," HSE Working papers WP BRP 02/EC/2011, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    9. Peláez, Rolando F., 2015. "Market-timing the business cycle," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 55-64.
    10. Sergey V. Smirnov & Daria A. Avdeeva, 2016. "Wishful Bias in Predicting Us Recessions: Indirect Evidence," HSE Working papers WP BRP 135/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    11. Vora, Premal P. & McGinnis, John D., 2000. "The asset allocation decision in retirement: lessons from dollar-cost averaging," Financial Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 47-63, 00.
    12. Rolando F. Peláez, 2015. "Market‐timing the business cycle," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(1), pages 55-64, September.

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