Forecast errors and financial developments
As central banks have moved towards a forward-looking implementation of monetary policy, the role of forecasts in the policy process has greatly increased. Against this background, this paper looks at the accuracy of forecasts and, more specifically, addresses the question whether forecasts of growth and inflation can be improved by including information from financial markets. The empirical work presented suggests that average forecast errors are not large enough to seriously undermine the basis for forward-looking monetary policies, except in periods of common shocks and at cyclical turning points. It also appears that unexpected changes in non-financial variables are the primary source of forecast errors. Nonetheless, for several countries, forecasts could also be improved by using the information contents of changes in the yield curve and of movements in exchange rates and other asset prices.
|Date of creation:||Nov 1997|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Centralbahnplatz 2, CH - 4002 Basel|
Phone: (41) 61 - 280 80 80
Fax: (41) 61 - 280 91 00
Web page: http://www.bis.org/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Stephen K. McNees & Lauren K. Fine, 1994. "Diversity, uncertainty, and accuracy of inflation forecasts," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 33-44.
- Stephen K. McNees, 1992. "The 1990-91 recession in historical perspective," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 3-22.
- Henri Bernard & Stefan Gerlach, 1996.
"Does the term structure predict recessions? The international evidence,"
BIS Working Papers
37, Bank for International Settlements.
- Bernard, Henri & Gerlach, Stefan, 1998. "Does the Term Structure Predict Recessions? The International Evidence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(3), pages 195-215, July.
- Bernard, Henri J & Gerlach, Stefan, 1998. "Does the Term Structure Predict Recessions? The International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 1892, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1995.
"Inflation Indicators and Inflation Policy,"
NBER Working Papers
5161, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stephen K. McNees, 1992. "How large are economic forecast errors?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 25-42.
- Stephen K. McNees, 1987. "Consensus forecasts: tyranny of the majority?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 15-21.
- Granger, Clive W J, 1996. "Can We Improve the Perceived Quality of Economic Forecasts?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 455-73, Sept.-Oct.
- Lamont, Owen A., 2002.
"Macroeconomic forecasts and microeconomic forecasters,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 265-280, July.
- Owen Lamont, 1995. "Macroeconomics Forecasts and Microeconomic Forecasters," NBER Working Papers 5284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Horioka, Charles Yuji, 1996.
"Capital Gains in Japan: Their Magnitude and Impact on Consumption,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(436), pages 560-77, May.
- Horioka, C.Y., 1995. "Capital Gains in Japan: Their Magnitude and Imact on Consumption," ISER Discussion Paper 0388, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
- Stephen K. McNees, 1987. "Forecasting cyclical turning points: the record in the past three recessions," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 31-40.
- Ken Holden & John Thompson, 1997. "Combining forecasts, encompassing and the properties of UK macroeconomic forecasts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(11), pages 1447-1458.
- Josef Baumgartner & Ramana Ramaswamy, 1996. "Inflation Targeting in the United Kingdom: Information Content of Financial and Monetary Variables," IMF Working Papers 96/44, International Monetary Fund.
- Tzavalis, Elias & Wickens, M. R., 1996.
"Forecasting inflation from the term structure,"
Journal of Empirical Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 103-122, May.
- Victor Zarnowitz & Phillip Braun, 1993.
"Twenty-two Years of the NBER-ASA Quarterly Economic Outlook Surveys: Aspects and Comparisons of Forecasting Performance,"
in: Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, pages 11-94
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Victor Zarnowitz & Phillip Braun, 1992. "Twenty-two Years of the NBER-ASA Quarterly Economic Outlook Surveys: Aspects and Comparisons of Forecasting Performance," NBER Working Papers 3965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Charles Steindel, 1992. "Changes in the U.S. cycle: shifts in capital spending and balance sheet changes," Research Paper 9224, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Nathan S. Balke & Mark A. Wynne, 1995. "Are deep recessions followed by strong recoveries? Results for the G-7 countries," Working Papers 9509, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Stephen K. McNees, 1995. "Assessment of the "official" economic forecasts," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 13-23.
- Hamilton, James D & Gang, Lin, 1996. "Stock Market Volatility and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 573-93, Sept.-Oct.
- Ellis W. Tallman & Naveen Chandra, 1997.
"Financial aggregates as conditioning information for Australian output and inflation,"
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
97-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Ellis W. Tallman & Naveen Chandra, 1997. "Financial Aggregates as Conditioning Information for Australian Output and Inflation," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9704, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Luis CatÃ£o & Ramana Ramaswamy, 1995. "Recession and Recovery in the United Kingdom in the 1990'+L927s: A Vector Autoregression Approach," IMF Working Papers 95/40, International Monetary Fund.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:51. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Beslmeisl)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.