Those Unpredictable Recessions
Contemporary global economic life is measured in days and hours, but most common economic indicators have inevitable lags of months and sometimes quarters (GDP). Moreover, the real-time picture of economic dynamics may differ in some sense from the same picture in its historical perspective, because all fluctuations receive their proper weights only in the context of the whole. Therefore, it’s important to understand whether the existing indicators are really capable of providing important information for decision-makers. In other words, could they be useful in real-time? Why then was it so difficult for the experts to recognize the turning points in real time? What hampers this ability to recognize? Can a turning points’ forecast be entirely objective? The paper answers these questions in terms of three cyclical indicators for the USA (LEI by the Conference Board, CLI by OECD and PMI by ISM) during the last 2008–2009 recession
|Date of creation:||2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in WP BRP Series: Economics / EC, November 2011, pages 1-24|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.hse.ru/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Michael J. Dueker, 2002. "Regime-dependent recession forecasts and the 2001 recession," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 29-36.
- Chauvet, Marcelle & Piger, Jeremy, 2008.
"A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 42-49, January.
- Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy M. Piger, 2005. "A comparison of the real-time performance of business cycle dating methods," Working Papers 2005-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Hamilton, James D., 2011.
"Calling recessions in real time,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1006-1026, October.
- Zarnowitz, Victor & Moore, Geoffrey H, 1982. "Sequential Signals of Recession and Recovery," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(1), pages 57-85, January.
- Layton, Allan P. & Katsuura, Masaki, 2001. "Comparison of regime switching, probit and logit models in dating and forecasting US business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 403-417.
- Takatoshi Ito, 1988.
"Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data,"
NBER Working Papers
2679, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ito, Takatoshi, 1990. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 434-49, June.
- Emery, Kenneth M. & Koenig, Evan F., 1992.
"Forecasting turning points : Is a two-state characterization of the business cycle appropriate?,"
Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 431-435, August.
- Kenneth M. Emery & Evan F. Koenig, 1992. "Forecasting turning points: is a two-state characterization of the business cycle appropriate?," Research Paper 9214, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Chaffin, Wilkie W. & Talley, Wayne K., 1989. "Diffusion indexes and a statistical test for predicting turning points in business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 29-36.
- Rolando Peláez, 2005. "Dating Business-Cycle turning points," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 127-137, March.
- Rendigs Fels & C. Elton Hinshaw, 1968. "Forecasting and Recognizing Business Cycle Turning Points," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number fels68-1, August.
- Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000.
"This Is What The Leading Indicators Lead,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2000
132, Society for Computational Economics.
- Marcelle Chauvet & James D. Hamilton, 2005. "Dating Business Cycle Turning Points," NBER Working Papers 11422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Paap, R. & Segers, R. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2007.
"Do leading indicators lead peaks more than troughs?,"
Econometric Institute Research Papers
EI 2007-08, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Paap, Richard & Segers, Rene & van Dijk, Dick, 2009. "Do Leading Indicators Lead Peaks More Than Troughs?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 528-543.
- Prakash Loungani & Bharat Trehan, 2002. "Predicting when the economy will turn," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar15.
- Stekler, H O, 1972. "An Analysis of Turning Point Forecasts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 724-29, September.
- Ana Beatriz C. Galvao, 2006. "Structural break threshold VARs for predicting US recessions using the spread," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 463-487.
- Boldin, Michael D, 1994. "Dating Turning Points in the Business Cycle," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(1), pages 97-131, January.
- Saul H. Hymans, 1973. "On the Use of Leading Indicators to Predict Cyclical Turning Points," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(2), pages 339-384.
- Lamont, Owen A., 2002.
"Macroeconomic forecasts and microeconomic forecasters,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 265-280, July.
- Owen Lamont, 1995. "Macroeconomics Forecasts and Microeconomic Forecasters," NBER Working Papers 5284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- H. O. Stekler, 1968. "An Evaluation of Quarterly Judgmental Economic Forecasts," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 41, pages 329.
- Geoffrey H. Moore, 1961. "Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number moor61-1, August.
- Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 246-77, April.
- Edward E. Leamer, 2008. "What's a Recession, Anyway?," NBER Working Papers 14221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jacques Anas & Laurent Ferrara, 2004. "Detecting Cyclical Turning Points: The ABCD Approach and Two Probabilistic Indicators," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2004(2), pages 193-225.
- Layton, Allan P, 1997. "Do Leading Indicators Really Predict Australian Business Cycle Turning Points?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 73(222), pages 258-69, September.
- Geoffrey H. Moore, 1961. "Appendices to "Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1"," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1, pages 669-767 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hig:wpaper:02/ec/2011. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamil Abdulaev)or (Victoria Elkina)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.