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Forecasting turning points: is a two-state characterization of the business cycle appropriate?

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  • Emery, Kenneth M.
  • Koenig, Evan F.

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)

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Suggested Citation

  • Emery, Kenneth M. & Koenig, Evan F., 1992. "Forecasting turning points: is a two-state characterization of the business cycle appropriate?," Working Papers 9214, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:9214
    Note: Published as: Emery, Kenneth M. and Evan F. Koenig (1992), "Forecasting Turning Points: Is a Two-State Characterization of the Business Cycle Appropriate?," Economics Letters 39 (4): 431-435.
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    File URL: http://dallasfed.org/assets/documents/research/papers/1992/wp9214.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wynne, Mark A. & Balke, Nathan S., 1992. "Are deep recessions followed by strong recoveries?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 183-189, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Evan F. Koenig & Kenneth M. Emery, 1994. "Why The Composite Index Of Leading Indicators Does Not Lead," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(1), pages 52-66, January.
    2. Dijk, Dick van & Franses, Philip Hans, 1999. "Modeling Multiple Regimes in the Business Cycle," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(03), pages 311-340, September.
    3. Scott Freeman & Dong-Pyo Hong & Dan Peled, 1999. "Endogenous Cycles and Growth with Indivisible Technological Developments," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(2), pages 402-432, April.
    4. Sergey Smirnov, 2011. "Those Unpredictable Recessions," HSE Working papers WP BRP 02/EC/2011, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    5. Sarlan, Haldun, 2001. "Cyclical aspects of business cycle turning points," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 369-382.
    6. Francois, P. & Lloyd-Ellis, H., 2001. "Animal Spirits Meets Creative Destruction," Discussion Paper 2001-36, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    7. Christian Schulz, 2008. "Forecasting economic activity for Estonia : The application of dynamic principal component analyses," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2008-02, Bank of Estonia, revised 30 Oct 2008.
    8. Dufrenot, Gilles & Mignon, Valerie & Peguin-Feissolle, Anne, 2004. "Business cycles asymmetry and monetary policy: a further investigation using MRSTAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 37-71, January.
    9. Patrick Francois & Huw Lloyd-Ellis, 2003. "Animal Spirits Through Creative Destruction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 530-550, June.
    10. Nadir Ocal & Denise R. Osborn, 2000. "Business cycle non-linearities in UK consumption and production," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 27-43.
    11. Balke, Nathan S. & Wynne, Mark A., 1993. "Recessions and recoveries in real business cycle models: do real business cycle models generate cyclical behavior?," Working Papers 9322, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    12. Evan F. Koenig, 1994. "Capacity utilization and the evolution of manufacturing output: a closer look at the "bounce-back effect."," Working Papers 9402, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

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