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Forecasting turning points: is a two-state characterization of the business cycle appropriate?

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  • Kenneth M. Emery
  • Evan F. Koenig

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  • Kenneth M. Emery & Evan F. Koenig, 1992. "Forecasting turning points: is a two-state characterization of the business cycle appropriate?," Working Papers 9214, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:9214
    Note: Published as: Emery, Kenneth M. and Evan F. Koenig (1992), "Forecasting Turning Points: Is a Two-State Characterization of the Business Cycle Appropriate?," Economics Letters 39 (4): 431-435.
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wynne, Mark A. & Balke, Nathan S., 1992. "Are deep recessions followed by strong recoveries?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 183-189, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dijk, Dick van & Franses, Philip Hans, 1999. "Modeling Multiple Regimes in the Business Cycle," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(3), pages 311-340, September.
    2. Francois, P. & Lloyd-Ellis, H., 2001. "Animal Spirits Meets Creative Destruction," Other publications TiSEM d583b352-a7f4-434f-8731-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Evan F. Koenig & Kenneth M. Emery, 1994. "Why The Composite Index Of Leading Indicators Does Not Lead," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(1), pages 52-66, January.
    4. Nathan S. Balke & Mark A. Wynne, 1993. "Recessions and recoveries in real business cycle models: do real business cycle models generate cyclical behavior?," Working Papers 9322, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    5. Evan F. Koenig, 1994. "Capacity utilization and the evolution of manufacturing output: a closer look at the \"bounce-back effect.\"," Working Papers 9402, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    6. Kapetanios, G., 1999. "Threshold Models for Trended Time Series," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9905, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    7. Scott Freeman & Dong-Pyo Hong & Dan Peled, 1999. "Endogenous Cycles and Growth with Indivisible Technological Developments," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(2), pages 402-432, April.
    8. Christian Schulz, 2008. "Forecasting economic activity for Estonia : The application of dynamic principal component analyses," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2008-02, Bank of Estonia, revised 30 Oct 2008.
    9. Patrick Francois & Huw Lloyd-Ellis, 2003. "Animal Spirits Through Creative Destruction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 530-550, June.
    10. Dufrenot, Gilles & Mignon, Valerie & Peguin-Feissolle, Anne, 2004. "Business cycles asymmetry and monetary policy: a further investigation using MRSTAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 37-71, January.
    11. Sarlan, Haldun, 2001. "Cyclical aspects of business cycle turning points," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 369-382.
    12. Nadir Ocal & Denise R. Osborn, 2000. "Business cycle non-linearities in UK consumption and production," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 27-43.
    13. Sergey Smirnov, 2011. "Those Unpredictable Recessions," HSE Working papers WP BRP 02/EC/2011, National Research University Higher School of Economics.

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