IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedder/y1993ijanp1-17.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Recessions and recoveries

Author

Listed:
  • Mark A. Wynne
  • Nathan S. Balke

Abstract

The U.S. recession that began in July 1990 may have ended in April or May 1991. The pace of the subsequent recovery has been so sluggish as to be indistinguishable, in the eyes of many, from continued recession. One explanation for the sluggish pace of the recovery is that the recession itself was not particularly severe, at least when compared with others. ; In this article, Mark Wynne and Nathan Balke use monthly data on industrial production to examine the hypothesis that the severity of a recession determines the pace of the subsequent recovery. They show that, historically, the relationship between growth in the first twelve months of a recovery and the decline in industrial activity from peak to trough is statistically significant. However, there is no relationship between the length of a recession and the strength of the recovery. Consistent with their finding of a bounce-back effect for industrial production, the recovery from the 1990-91 recession is the weakest in the period covered by the Federal Reserve Board's industrial production index, just as the decline in industrial production over the course of that recession is the mildest on record.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark A. Wynne & Nathan S. Balke, 1993. "Recessions and recoveries," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jan, pages 1-17.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedder:y:1993:i:jan:p:1-17
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.dallasfed.org/assets/documents/research/er/1993/er9301a.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sichel, Daniel E, 1994. "Inventories and the Three Phases of the Business Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 269-277, July.
    2. Romer, Christina D., 1992. "What Ended the Great Depression?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(04), pages 757-784, December.
    3. Wynne, Mark A. & Balke, Nathan S., 1992. "Are deep recessions followed by strong recoveries?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 183-189, June.
    4. Romer, Christina D., 1994. "Remeasuring Business Cycles," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(03), pages 573-609, September.
    5. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, January.
    6. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Francois, P. & Lloyd-Ellis, H., 2001. "Animal Spirits Meets Creative Destruction," Discussion Paper 2001-36, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    2. Evan F. Koenig, 1996. "Capacity utilization as a real-time predictor of manufacturing output," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q III, pages 16-23.
    3. repec:bla:ecinqu:v:55:y:2017:i:1:p:527-541 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Patrick Francois & Huw Lloyd-Ellis, 2003. "Animal Spirits Through Creative Destruction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 530-550, June.
    5. Hong, Kiseok & Tang, Hsiao Chink, 2012. "Crises in Asia: Recovery and policy responses," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 654-668.
    6. Gregory W. Huffman, 1994. "A primer on the nature of business cycles," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q I, pages 27-41.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Production (Economic theory) ; Recessions;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedder:y:1993:i:jan:p:1-17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Amy Chapman). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/frbdaus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.