Recessions and recoveries
The U.S. recession that began in July 1990 may have ended in April or May 1991. The pace of the subsequent recovery has been so sluggish as to be indistinguishable, in the eyes of many, from continued recession. One explanation for the sluggish pace of the recovery is that the recession itself was not particularly severe, at least when compared with others. ; In this article, Mark Wynne and Nathan Balke use monthly data on industrial production to examine the hypothesis that the severity of a recession determines the pace of the subsequent recovery. They show that, historically, the relationship between growth in the first twelve months of a recovery and the decline in industrial activity from peak to trough is statistically significant. However, there is no relationship between the length of a recession and the strength of the recovery. Consistent with their finding of a bounce-back effect for industrial production, the recovery from the 1990-91 recession is the weakest in the period covered by the Federal Reserve Board's industrial production index, just as the decline in industrial production over the course of that recession is the mildest on record.
Volume (Year): (1993)
Issue (Month): Jan ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.dallasfed.org/|
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, September.
- Mark A. Wynne & Nathan S. Balke, 1992.
"Are deep recessions followed by strong recoveries?,"
9201, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Wynne, Mark A. & Balke, Nathan S., 1992. "Are deep recessions followed by strong recoveries?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 183-189, June.
- Wynne, Mark A. & Balke, Nathan S., 1992. "Are deep recessions followed by strong recoveries?," Working Papers 9201, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Christina D. Romer, 1992.
"Remeasuring Business Cycles,"
NBER Working Papers
4150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Romer, Christina D., 1992.
"What Ended the Great Depression?,"
The Journal of Economic History,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(04), pages 757-784, December.
- Daniel E. Sichel, 1992. "Inventories and the three phases of the business cycle," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 128, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedder:y:1993:i:jan:p:1-17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Amy Chapman)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.