Recessions and recoveries
The U.S. recession that began in July 1990 may have ended in April or May 1991. The pace of the subsequent recovery has been so sluggish as to be indistinguishable, in the eyes of many, from continued recession. One explanation for the sluggish pace of the recovery is that the recession itself was not particularly severe, at least when compared with others. ; In this article, Mark Wynne and Nathan Balke use monthly data on industrial production to examine the hypothesis that the severity of a recession determines the pace of the subsequent recovery. They show that, historically, the relationship between growth in the first twelve months of a recovery and the decline in industrial activity from peak to trough is statistically significant. However, there is no relationship between the length of a recession and the strength of the recovery. Consistent with their finding of a bounce-back effect for industrial production, the recovery from the 1990-91 recession is the weakest in the period covered by the Federal Reserve Board's industrial production index, just as the decline in industrial production over the course of that recession is the mildest on record.
Volume (Year): (1993)
Issue (Month): Jan ()
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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Wynne, Mark A. & Balke, Nathan S., 1992.
"Are deep recessions followed by strong recoveries?,"
Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 183-189, June.
- Wynne, Mark A. & Balke, Nathan S., 1992. "Are deep recessions followed by strong recoveries?," Working Papers 9201, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Daniel E. Sichel, 1992. "Inventories and the three phases of the business cycle," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 128, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Romer, Christina D., 1994.
"Remeasuring Business Cycles,"
The Journal of Economic History,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(03), pages 573-609, September.
- Romer, Christina D., 1992.
"What Ended the Great Depression?,"
The Journal of Economic History,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(04), pages 757-784, December.
- Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1.
- Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1.
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