Capacity utilization as a real-time predictor of manufacturing output
In this article, Evan F. Koenig demonstrates that the Federal Reserve Board's initial estimate of manufacturing capacity utilization is helpful in predicting subsequent growth in manufacturing output. Together with lagged real-time output growth and growth in the composite index of leading indicators, capacity utilization explains more than 50 percent of the variation in output growth at a four-quarter horizon. Based on data available at the beginning of the year, the forecasting equation predicts little or no growth in manufacturing output during 1996.
Volume (Year): (1996)
Issue (Month): Q III ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.dallasfed.org/|
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John H. Cochrane, 1994. "Permanent and Transitory Components of GNP and Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(1), pages 241-265.
- J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, . "How Does Macroeconomic Policy Matter?," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _130, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
- Beaudry, Paul & Koop, Gary, 1993. "Do recessions permanently change output?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 149-163, April.
- Mark A. Wynne & Nathan S. Balke, 1993. "Recessions and recoveries," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jan, pages 1-17.
- Yock Y. Chong & David F. Hendry, 1986. "Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macro-Economic Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 671-690.
- Richard D. Raddock, 1990. "Recent developments in industrial capacity and utilization," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jun, pages 411-435.
- Matthew D. Shapiro, 1989. "Assessing the Federal Reserve's Measures of Capacity and Utilization," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(1), pages 181-242.
- J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 1988. "How Does Macroeconomic Policy Affect Output?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(2), pages 433-494.
- repec:fth:harver:1418 is not listed on IDEAS
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedder:y:1996:i:qiii:p:16-23. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Amy Chapman)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.