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A new monthly chronology of the US industrial cycles in the prewar economy

Author

Listed:
  • Amélie Charles

    () (Audencia Recherche - Audencia Business School)

  • Olivier Darné

    () (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - UN - Université de Nantes)

  • Claude Diebolt

    () (BETA - Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Laurent Ferrara

    () (BANQUE DE FRANCE - Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France)

Abstract

This article extends earlier efforts at redating the US industrial cycles for the prewar period (1890-1938) using the methodologies proposed by Bry and Boschan (1971) and Hamilton (1989) and based on the monthly industrial production index constructed by Miron and Romer (1990) and modified by Romer (1994). The alternative chronology detects 90% of the peaks and troughs identified by the NBER and Romer (1994), but the new dates are consistently dated earlier for more than 50% of them, especially as regards the NBER troughs. The new dates affect the comparison of the average duration of recessions and expansions in both pre-WWI and interwar eras. Whereas the NBER reference dates show an increase in average duration of the expansions between the pre-WWI and interwar periods, the new dates show evidence of shortened length of expansions. However, the new dates confirm the traditional finding that contractions lasted longer in the postwar period than during the prewar period.

Suggested Citation

  • Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Claude Diebolt & Laurent Ferrara, 2015. "A new monthly chronology of the US industrial cycles in the prewar economy," Post-Print hal-01146800, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01146800 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2014.06.002 Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://hal-audencia.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01146800
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Claude Diebolt & Mamoudou Toure & Jamel Trabelsi, 2012. "Monetary Credibility Effects on Inflation Dynamics: A Macrohistorical Case Study," Working Papers 12-04, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    2. Thi Hong Van Hoang, 2012. "Has gold been a hedge against inflation in France from 1949 to 2011? Empirical evidence of the French specificity," Working Papers 12-05, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Industrial business cycle; Dating chronology; Cliometrics;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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