Have postwar economic fluctuations been stabilized?
Previous investigations of whether the volatility of the U.S. economy diminished after World War II have been inconclusive because of questionable prewar macroeconomic aggregates. We examine, more broadly, the hypothesis of the stabilization of the postwar economy by focusing on the duration of business cycles, rather than their amplitude; in the process, we avoid the debate about the quality of prewar aggregates. Using distribution-free statistics, we find clear evidence of postwar duration stabilization in terms of a shift toward longer expansions and shorter contractions. Moreover, we find no shift in whole-cycle durations, which suggests a reallocation of the business cycle away from contraction and toward expansion.
|Date of creation:||1990|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (612) 204-5000
Web page: http://minneapolisfed.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.minneapolisfed.org/pubs/ Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1988.
"A nonparametric investigation of duration dependence in the American business cycle,"
Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section
90, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1990. "A Nonparametric Investigation of Duration Dependence in the American Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 596-616, June.
- Robert J. Gordon & Arthur M. Okun & Herbert Stein, 1980.
"Postwar Macroeconomics: The Evolution of Events and Ideas,"
in: The American Economy in Transition, pages 101-182
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert J. Gordon, 1980. "Postwar Macroeconomics: The Evolution of Events and Ideas," NBER Working Papers 0459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Meyer, Bruce D, 1990.
"Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Spells,"
Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 757-82, July.
- J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, 1984.
"The Changing Cyclical Variability of Economic Activity in the United States,"
NBER Working Papers
1450, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "The Changing Cyclical Variability of Economic Activity in the United States," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 679-734 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedmem:33. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Janelle Ruswick)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.