IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aecrev/v82y1992i4p993-1005.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Have Postwar Economic Fluctuations Been Stabilized?

Author

Listed:
  • Diebold, Francis X
  • Rudebusch, Glenn D

Abstract

Previous investigations of whether the volatility of the U.S. economy diminished after World War II have been inconclusive because of questionable prewar macroeconomic aggregates. We examine, more broadly, the hypothesis of the stabilization of the postwar economy by focusing on the duration of business cycles, rather than their amplitude; in the process, we avoid the debate about the quality of prewar aggregates. Using distribution-free statistics, we find clear evidence of postwar duration stabilization in terms of a shift toward longer expansions and shorter contractions. Moreover, we find no shift in whole-cycle durations, which suggests a reallocation of the business cycle away from contraction and toward expansion.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1992. "Have Postwar Economic Fluctuations Been Stabilized?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 993-1005, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:82:y:1992:i:4:p:993-1005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0002-8282%28199209%2982%3A4%3C993%3AHPEFBS%3E2.0.CO%3B2-U&origin=repec
    File Function: full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to JSTOR subscribers. See http://www.jstor.org for details.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Meyer, Bruce D, 1990. "Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Spells," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 757-782, July.
    2. J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "The Changing Cyclical Variability of Economic Activity in the United States," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 679-734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Robert J. Gordon & Arthur M. Okun & Herbert Stein, 1980. "Postwar Macroeconomics: The Evolution of Events and Ideas," NBER Chapters, in: The American Economy in Transition, pages 101-182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1990. "A Nonparametric Investigation of Duration Dependence in the American Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 596-616, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. J. Bradford De Long, "undated". "Keynesianism, Pennsylvania-Avenue Style: Some Economic Consequences of the 1946 Employment Act," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _105, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
    2. Peter Temin, 1998. "Causes of American business cycles: an essay in economic historiography," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 42(Jun), pages 37-64.
    3. Lixin Cai, 2004. "An Analysis of Durations on the Disability Support Pension (DSP) Program," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2004n08, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    4. José Ignacio García Pérez & Yolanda Rebollo Sanz, 2005. "A Structural Estimation to Evaluate the Wage Penalty after Unemployment in Europe," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2005/15, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    5. Jan Boone & Jan Ours, 2012. "Why is There a Spike in the Job Finding Rate at Benefit Exhaustion?," De Economist, Springer, vol. 160(4), pages 413-438, December.
    6. Hanel, Barbara, 2010. "Financial incentives to postpone retirement and further effects on employment -- Evidence from a natural experiment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 474-486, June.
    7. Daniel Baumgarten, 2009. "International Outsourcing, the Nature of Tasks, and Occupational Stability – Empirical Evidence for Germany," Ruhr Economic Papers 0108, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    8. Stephen Nickell, 1997. "Unemployment and Labor Market Rigidities: Europe versus North America," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 55-74, Summer.
    9. Eriksson, Tor & Moritz Kuhn, Johan, 2006. "Firm spin-offs in Denmark 1981-2000 -- patterns of entry and exit," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 1021-1040, September.
    10. Michele Cincera & Lydia Greunz & Jean-Luc Guyot & Olivier Lohest, 2006. "Capital humain et processus de création d'entreprise: le cas des primo-créateurs wallons," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 49(2).
    11. East, Chloe N. & Kuka, Elira, 2015. "Reexamining the consumption smoothing benefits of Unemployment Insurance," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 32-50.
    12. de Walque, Damien, 2007. "How does the impact of an HIV/AIDS information campaign vary with educational attainment? Evidence from rural Uganda," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 686-714, November.
    13. Lixin Cai, 2015. "The dynamics of low pay employment in Australia," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 36(7), pages 1095-1123, October.
    14. Brice Corgnet & Simon Gaechter & Roberto Hernan Gonzalez, 2020. "Working Too Much for Too Little: Stochastic Rewards Cause Work Addiction," Discussion Papers 2020-03, The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham.
    15. Raj Chetty, 2005. "Why do Unemployment Benefits Raise Unemployment Durations? Moral Hazard vs. Liquidity," NBER Working Papers 11760, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Pedro Portugal & John T. Addison, 2008. "Six Ways To Leave Unemployment," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 55(4), pages 393-419, September.
    17. Francesco Devicienti & Valentina Gualtieri & Mariacristina Rossi, 2014. "The Persistence Of Income Poverty And Lifestyle Deprivation: Evidence From Italy," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(3), pages 246-278, July.
    18. García-Pérez, J. Ignacio & Jiménez-Martín, Sergi & Sánchez-Martín, Alfonso R., 2013. "Retirement incentives, individual heterogeneity and labor transitions of employed and unemployed workers," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 106-120.
    19. Alison L. Booth & Marco Francesconi & Jeff Frank, 2002. "Temporary Jobs: Stepping Stones Or Dead Ends?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(480), pages 189-213, June.
    20. Elena Casquel & Antoni Cunyat, "undated". "The Welfare Cost of Business Cycles in an Economy with Nonclearing Markets," Working Papers 2005-19, FEDEA.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:82:y:1992:i:4:p:993-1005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael P. Albert). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.