IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgwe/116.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Have postwar economic fluctuations been stabilized?

Author

Listed:
  • Francis X. Diebold
  • Glenn D. Rudebusch

Abstract

Previous investigations of whether the volatility of the U.S. economy diminished after World War II have been inconclusive because of questionable prewar macroeconomic aggregates. We examine, more broadly, the hypothesis of the stabilization of the postwar economy by focusing on the duration of business cycles, rather than their amplitude; in the process, we avoid the debate about the quality of prewar aggregates. Using distribution-free statistics, we find clear evidence of postwar duration stabilization in terms of a shift toward longer expansions and shorter contractions. Moreover, we find no shift in whole-cycle durations, which suggests a reallocation of the business cycle away from contraction and toward expansion.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1991. "Have postwar economic fluctuations been stabilized?," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 116, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgwe:116
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Meyer, Bruce D, 1990. "Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Spells," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 757-782, July.
    2. J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "The Changing Cyclical Variability of Economic Activity in the United States," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 679-734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Robert J. Gordon & Arthur M. Okun & Herbert Stein, 1980. "Postwar Macroeconomics: The Evolution of Events and Ideas," NBER Chapters, in: The American Economy in Transition, pages 101-182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1990. "A Nonparametric Investigation of Duration Dependence in the American Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 596-616, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. J. Bradford De Long, "undated". "Keynesianism, Pennsylvania-Avenue Style: Some Economic Consequences of the 1946 Employment Act," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _105, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
    2. Peter Temin, 1998. "Causes of American business cycles: an essay in economic historiography," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 42(Jun), pages 37-64.
    3. Lixin Cai, 2004. "An Analysis of Durations on the Disability Support Pension (DSP) Program," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2004n08, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    4. Jan Boone & Jan Ours, 2012. "Why is There a Spike in the Job Finding Rate at Benefit Exhaustion?," De Economist, Springer, vol. 160(4), pages 413-438, December.
    5. Stephen Nickell, 1997. "Unemployment and Labor Market Rigidities: Europe versus North America," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 55-74, Summer.
    6. Michele Cincera & Lydia Greunz & Jean-Luc Guyot & Olivier Lohest, 2006. "Capital humain et processus de création d'entreprise: le cas des primo-créateurs wallons," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 49(2).
    7. de Walque, Damien, 2007. "How does the impact of an HIV/AIDS information campaign vary with educational attainment? Evidence from rural Uganda," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 686-714, November.
    8. Lixin Cai, 2015. "The dynamics of low pay employment in Australia," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 36(7), pages 1095-1123, October.
    9. Raj Chetty, 2005. "Why do Unemployment Benefits Raise Unemployment Durations? Moral Hazard vs. Liquidity," NBER Working Papers 11760, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Francesco Devicienti & Valentina Gualtieri & Mariacristina Rossi, 2014. "The Persistence Of Income Poverty And Lifestyle Deprivation: Evidence From Italy," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(3), pages 246-278, July.
    11. Brigitte Dormont & Denis Fougère & Ana Prieto, 2001. "L'effet de l'allocation unique dégressive sur la reprise d'emploi," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 343(1), pages 3-28.
    12. Elena Casquel & Antoni Cunyat, "undated". "The Welfare Cost of Business Cycles in an Economy with Nonclearing Markets," Working Papers 2005-19, FEDEA.
    13. Nicola Pavoni & G. L. Violante, 2007. "Optimal Welfare-to-Work Programs," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(1), pages 283-318.
    14. Juan Mora & Antonia Febrer, 2005. "Wage Distribution In Spain, 1994-1999: An Application Of A Flexible Estimator Of Conditional Distributions," Working Papers. Serie EC 2005-04, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    15. Raj Chetty, 2004. "Consumption Commitments, Unemployment Durations, and Local Risk Aversion," NBER Working Papers 10211, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Dionne, Georges, 1998. "La mesure empirique des problèmes d’information," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 74(4), pages 585-606, décembre.
    17. Amy Finkelstein & James Poterba, 2004. "Adverse Selection in Insurance Markets: Policyholder Evidence from the U.K. Annuity Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(1), pages 183-208, February.
    18. repec:pri:cepsud:158krueger is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Vitor Castro, 2015. "The Portuguese business cycle: chronology and duration dependence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 325-342, August.
    20. Reize, Frank, 2000. "Leaving unemployment for self-employment: a discrete duration analysis of determinants and stability of self-employment among former unemployed," ZEW Discussion Papers 00-26, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    21. Ira N. Gang & Thomas Bauer, 2000. "Return Migrants From Egypt: How Long Did They Stay Abroad?," Departmental Working Papers 199811, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgwe:116. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.