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A useful tool to identify recessions in the euro area

  • Pilar Bengoechea
  • Gabriel P�rez Quir�s
Registered author(s):

    This paper investigates the identification and dating of the European business cycle, using different methods. We concentrate on methods and statistical series that provide timely and accurate information about the contemporaneous state of the economy in order to provide the reader with a useful tool that allows him or her to analyze current business conditions and make predictions about the future state of the economy. In this spirit, we find that the European Commission industrial confidence indicator (ICI) is useful in providing that information.

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    File URL: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/publication566_en.pdf
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    Paper provided by Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission in its series European Economy - Economic Papers with number 215.

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    Length: 26 pages
    Date of creation: Oct 2004
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0215
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Coomunivcations Unit, B-1049 Bruxelles / Brussels
    Fax: +32 2 298.08.23
    Web page: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/index_en.htm
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    1. Krolzig, H.-M. & Toro, J., 2001. "Classical And Modern Business Cycle Measurement: The European Case," Economics Series Working Papers 9960, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Mourougane, Annabelle & Roma, Moreno, 2002. "Can confidence indicators be useful to predict short term real GDP growth?," Working Paper Series 0133, European Central Bank.
    3. Artis, Michael J & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Proietti, Tommaso, 2003. "Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 3696, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. n/a, 1997. "Filtered least squares and measurement error," NIESR Discussion Papers 210, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    5. Mike Artis & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2002. "The European Business Cycle," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2002/19, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    6. Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn92-1, August.
    7. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, Wenda, 1999. "Further Evidence on the International Business Cycle and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(1), pages 120-32, January.
    8. Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2001. "Markov-Switching Procedures for Dating the Euro-Zone Business Cycle," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(3), pages 339-351.
    9. Teresa Santero & Niels Westerlund, 1996. "Confidence Indicators and Their Relationship to Changes in Economic Activity," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 170, OECD Publishing.
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