IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Housing cycles in the major euro area countries

  • Álvarez, L-J.
  • Bulligan, G.
  • Cabrero, A.
  • Ferrara, L.
  • Stahl, H.

The recent burst of the house price bubble in the United States and its spillover effects on real economies worldwide has rekindled the interest in the role of housing in the business cycle. In this paper, we investigate the relationships between housing cycles among the four major euro area countries (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) over the sample 1980q1 – 2008q4. Our main findings are that GDP cycles between 1.5 and 8 years show a high degree of comovement across these four countries, reflecting trade linkages. In contrast comovements in housing market cycles between 1.5 and 8 years are much weaker, idiosyncratic factors playing a major role. House prices are even less related across countries than quantities (residential investment, building permits, housing starts …). We find however much stronger relationships since 1999, i.e. in the common monetary policy period.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.banque-france.fr/uploads/tx_bdfdocumentstravail/DT269.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Banque de France in its series Working papers with number 269.

as
in new window

Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:269
Contact details of provider: Postal: Banque de France 31 Rue Croix des Petits Champs LABOLOG - 49-1404 75049 PARIS
Web page: http://www.banque-france.fr/

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Mike Artis & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2002. "The European Business Cycle," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2002/19, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
  2. Pilar Bengoechea & Gabriel Pérez-Quirós, 2004. "A useful tool to identify recessions in the euro-area," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0419, Banco de Espa�a.
  3. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
  4. Antipa, P. & Schalck, C., 2009. "Impact of Fiscal Policy on Residential Investment in France," Working papers 270, Banque de France.
  5. Knetsch, Thomas A., 2010. "Trend and cycle features in German residential investment before and after reunification," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,10, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  6. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  7. Luis J. Álvarez & Alberto Cabrero, 2010. "Does housing really lead the business cycle?," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1024, Banco de Espa�a.
  8. Peter Hoeller & David Rae, 2007. "Housing Markets and Adjustment in Monetary Union," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 550, OECD Publishing.
  9. Bertrand Candelon & Jan Piplack & Stefan Straetmans, 2009. "Multivariate Business Cycle Synchronization in Small Samples," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(5), pages 715-737, October.
  10. Gomez, Victor, 2001. "The Use of Butterworth Filters for Trend and Cycle Estimation in Economic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 365-73, July.
  11. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May.
  12. Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2001. "Markov-Switching Procedures for Dating the Euro-Zone Business Cycle," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(3), pages 339-351.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:269. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael brassart)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.