National borders matter... where one draws the lines too
The fact that crossing a political border dramatically reduces trade flows has been widely documented in the literature. The increasing number of borders has surprisingly attracted much less attention. The number of independent countries has indeed risen from 72 in 1948 to 192 today. This paper estimates the effect of political disintegration since World War II on the measured growth in world trade. We first show that trade statistics should be considered carefully when assessing globalization over time, since the definition of trade partners varies over time. We document a sizeable resulting accounting artefact, which accounts for 17% of the growth in world trade since 1948. Second, we estimate that political disintegration alone since World War II has raised measured international trade flows by 9% but decreased actual trade flows (including inter-regional trade) by 4%...
|Date of creation:||2010|
|Date of revision:|
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- Horny, Guillaume & Picchio, Matteo, 2010.
"Identification of lagged duration dependence in multiple-spell competing risks models,"
Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 241-243, March.
- Guillaume HORNY & Matteo PICCHIO, 2009. "Identification of Lagged Duration Dependence in Multiple Spells Competing Risks Models," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2009001, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
- Horny, G. & Picchio, M., 2009. "Identification of lagged duration dependence in multiple-spell competing risks models," Working papers 260, Banque de France.
- Cette, G. & Lopez, J., 2009.
"ICT Demand Behaviour: an International Comparison,"
252, Banque de France.
- Renne, J-P., 2009. "Frequency-domain analysis of debt service in a macro-finance model for the euro area," Working papers 261, Banque de France.
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