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A tale of two globalizations : gains for trade and openness 1800-2010

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  • Federico, Giovanni

Abstract

This paper compares the wave of globalization before the outbreak of the Great Recession in 2007 with its alleged historical antecedent before the outbreak of World War One. We describe trends in trade and openness, estimate the gains from trade and investigate the proximate causes of the growth of openness. We argue that the conventional wisdom has to be revised. The first wave of globalization started around 1820 and culminated around 1870. In the next century, trade continued to grow, with the exception of the Great Depression, but openness and gains fluctuated widely. Growth resumed in the early 1970s. By 2007, the world was more open than a century earlier and its inhabitants gained from trade substantially more than their ancestors did. The current wave of globalization, in spite of some similarities with previous trends, has no historical antecedents.

Suggested Citation

  • Federico, Giovanni, 2016. "A tale of two globalizations : gains for trade and openness 1800-2010," IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH 22354, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola.
    • Handle: RePEc:cte:whrepe:22354
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    6. David Chilosi & Giovanni Federico, 2021. "The effects of market integration during the first globalization: a multi-market approach," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 25(1), pages 20-58.
    7. Brian D. Varian, 2022. "Imperial preference before the Ottawa Agreements: Evidence from New Zealand's Preferential and Reciprocal Trade Act of 1903," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 75(4), pages 1214-1241, November.
    8. Kuhla, Kilian & Willner, Sven N & Otto, Christian & Levermann, Anders, 2023. "Resilience of international trade to typhoon-related supply disruptions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    9. Kazunobu HAYAKAWA & Naoto JINJI & Toshiyuki MATSUURA & Taiyo YOSHIMI, 2019. "Costs of Utilizing Regional Trade Agreements," Discussion papers 19054, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    10. Christopher David Absell, 2020. "The rise of coffee in the Brazilian south‐east: tariffs and foreign market potential, 1827–40," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 73(4), pages 964-990, November.
    11. Nicole Palan & Nadia Simoes & Nuno Crespo, 2021. "Measuring fifty years of trade globalisation," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(6), pages 1859-1884, June.
    12. Giovanni Federico & Paul Sharp & Antonio Tena-Junguito, 2017. "Openness and growth in a historical perspective: a VECM approach," Working Papers 0118, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    13. Angélica Domínguez-Cardoza & Adelina Garamow & Josefin Meyer, 2022. "Global Commodity Markets and Sovereign Risk across 150 Years," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2020, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    14. Domini, Giacomo, 2022. "Patterns of specialization and economic complexity through the lens of universal exhibitions, 1855-1900," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    15. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Ramos-Herrera, María del Carmen, 2024. "Does international trade promote economic growth? Europe, 19th and 20th centuries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 561-575.
    16. Wolfgang Keller & Markus Lampe & Carol H. Shiue, 2020. "International Transactions: Real Trade and Factor Flows between 1700 and 1870," NBER Working Papers 26865, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Laura Panza, 2024. "From a common empire to colonial rule: Commodity market disintegration in the Near East," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 77(2), pages 584-611, May.
    18. Carlo Ciccarelli & Alberto Dalmazzo & Daniela Vuri, 2021. "Home Sweet Home: the Effect of Sugar Protectionism on Emigration in Italy, 1876‐1913," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(4), pages 925-957, August.
    19. Aleksandar Shivarov, 2017. "Foreign Trade of Bulgaria during the First Half of the 20th Century: Development and Adaptation," Proceedings of the Centre for Economic History Research, Centre for Economic History Research, vol. 2, pages 115-128, November.
    20. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2019. "Deglobalization 2.0," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 18560.
    21. Giuseppe De Arcangelis & Rama Dasi Mariani & Federico Nastasi, 2020. "Migration and Trade during the Belle Époque in Argentina (1870-1913)," Working Papers 11/20, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.

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    Keywords

    Openness;

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

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