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A tale of two globalizations : gains for trade and openness 1800-2010

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  • Federico, Giovanni
  • Tena Junguito, Antonio

Abstract

This paper compares the wave of globalization before the outbreak of the Great Recession in 2007 with its alleged historical antecedent before the outbreak of World War One. We describe trends in trade and openness, estimate the gains from trade and investigate the proximate causes of the growth of openness. We argue that the conventional wisdom has to be revised. The first wave of globalization started around 1820 and culminated around 1870. In the next century, trade continued to grow, with the exception of the Great Depression, but openness and gains fluctuated widely. Growth resumed in the early 1970s. By 2007, the world was more open than a century earlier and its inhabitants gained from trade substantially more than their ancestors did. The current wave of globalization, in spite of some similarities with previous trends, has no historical antecedents.

Suggested Citation

  • Federico, Giovanni & Tena Junguito, Antonio, 2016. "A tale of two globalizations : gains for trade and openness 1800-2010," IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH 22354, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola.
    • Handle: RePEc:cte:whrepe:22354
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    7. Brian D. Varian, 2022. "Imperial preference before the Ottawa Agreements: Evidence from New Zealand's Preferential and Reciprocal Trade Act of 1903," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 75(4), pages 1214-1241, November.
    8. Kuhla, Kilian & Willner, Sven N & Otto, Christian & Levermann, Anders, 2023. "Resilience of international trade to typhoon-related supply disruptions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    9. Kazunobu HAYAKAWA & Naoto JINJI & Toshiyuki MATSUURA & Taiyo YOSHIMI, 2019. "Costs of Utilizing Regional Trade Agreements," Discussion papers 19054, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
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    14. Domini, Giacomo, 2022. "Patterns of specialization and economic complexity through the lens of universal exhibitions, 1855-1900," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
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    16. Laura Panza, 2024. "From a common empire to colonial rule: Commodity market disintegration in the Near East," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 77(2), pages 584-611, May.
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    18. Aleksandar Shivarov, 2017. "Foreign Trade of Bulgaria during the First Half of the 20th Century: Development and Adaptation," Proceedings of the Centre for Economic History Research, Centre for Economic History Research, vol. 2, pages 115-128, November.
    19. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2019. "Deglobalization 2.0," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 18560.
    20. Giuseppe De Arcangelis & Rama Dasi Mariani & Federico Nastasi, 2020. "Migration and Trade during the Belle Époque in Argentina (1870-1913)," Working Papers 11/20, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.

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    Keywords

    Openness;

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

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