Quantifying the evolution of world trade, 1870–1949
The typical narrative regarding the evolution of world trade prior to World War II refers to a secular rise starting around 1870 and a subsequent collapse beginning in 1914. This narrative, however, is based on measures of trade openness that do not fully take into account purchasing power differences across countries. Due to lack of alternative data, the measures employed in the existing literature are typically based on non-PPP-adjusted trade data denominated by PPP-adjusted GDP data. The present paper seeks to resolve this inconsistency by constructing new trade share estimates for 62 countries, representing 90% of world GDP, for the period from 1870 to 1949. Our estimates combine historical import and export figures with non-PPP-adjusted GDP values that we estimate via the short-cut method. Our estimates confirm qualitatively the narrative of a dramatic rise and fall of world trade over this period. Yet, they indicate that this rise and fall was quantitatively much more pronounced. We find that trade shares were on average 38% higher than previously documented and the world's level of trade openness in 1913 was comparable to that in 1974.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Paul Krugman, 1995. "Growing World Trade: Causes and Consequences," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 327-377.
- O Rourke, Kevin H. & Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2002.
"When did globalisation begin?,"
European Review of Economic History,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 23-50, April.
- Antoni Estevadeordal & Brian Frantz & Alan M. Taylor, 2002.
"The Rise and Fall of World Trade, 1870-1939,"
NBER Working Papers
9318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- repec:dgr:rugggd:gd-107 is not listed on IDEAS
- David S. Jacks & Christopher M. Meissner & Dennis Novy, 2009.
"Trade Booms, Trade Busts, and Trade Costs,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
2767, CESifo Group Munich.
- Jacks, David S; Meissner, Christopher; Novy, Dennis, 2010. "Trade Booms, Trade Busts and Trade Costs," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 33, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
- David S. Jacks & Christopher M. Meissner & Dennis Novy, 2009. "Trade Booms, Trade Busts, and Trade Costs," NBER Working Papers 15267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
- Prados de la Escosura, Leandro, 2000. "International Comparisons of Real Product, 1820-1990: An Alternative Data Set," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 1-41, January.
- Ward, Marianne & Devereux, John, 2003. "Measuring British Decline: Direct Versus Long-Span Income Measures," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 63(03), pages 826-851, September.
- J. Ernesto L�pez-C�rdova and Chris Meissner., 2000.
"Exchange-Rate Regimes and International Trade: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard Era,"
Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers
C00-118, University of California at Berkeley.
- Christopher M. Meissner, 2003. "Exchange-Rate Regimes and International Trade: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard Era," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 344-353, March.
- Lopez-Cordova, J. Ernesto & Meissner, Chris, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Regimes and International Trade: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard Era," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt1b04r034, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Irving B. Kravis & Robert E. Lipsey, 1988.
"National Price Levels and the Prices of Tradables and Nontradables,"
NBER Working Papers
2536, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kravis, Irving B & Lipsey, Robert E, 1988. "National Price Levels and the Prices of Tradables and Nontradables," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 474-78, May.
- Robinson, Peter M, 1988. "Root- N-Consistent Semiparametric Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(4), pages 931-54, July.
- Kravis, Irving B & Heston, Alan W & Summers, Robert, 1978. "Real GDP per Capita for More Than One Hundred Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(350), pages 215-42, June.
- Broadberry, Stephen, 2003. "Relative Per Capita Income Levels in the United Kingdom and the United States since 1870: Reconciling Time-Series Projections and Direct-Benchmark Estimates," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 63(03), pages 852-863, September.
- Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
- Clague, Christopher, 1986. "Determinants of the National Price Level: Some Empirical Results," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(2), pages 320-23, May.
- Lein-Lein Chen & Seungmook Choi & John Devereux, 2008. "Have Absolute Price Levels Converged for Developed Economies? The Evidence since 1870," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(1), pages 29-36, February.
- Gallup, J.L. & Sachs, J.D. & Mullinger, A., 1999. "Geography and Economic Development," Papers 1, Chicago - Graduate School of Business.
- John Luke Gallup & Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Mellinger, 1999. "Geography and Economic Development," CID Working Papers 1, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
- Summers, Robert & Heston, Alan, 1991. "The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An Expanded Set of International Comparisons, 1950-1988," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 327-68, May.
- Jacks, David S., 2005. "Intra- and international commodity market integration in the Atlantic economy, 1800-1913," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 381-413, July.
- Williamson Jeffrey G., 1995.
"The Evolution of Global Labor Markets since 1830: Background Evidence and Hypotheses,"
Explorations in Economic History,
Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 141-196, April.
- Jeffrey G. Williamson, 1992. "The Evolution of Global Labor Markets Since 1830 Background Evidence and Hypotheses," NBER Historical Working Papers 0036, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kravis, Irving B, 1984. "Comparative Studies of National Incomes and Prices," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 1-39, March.
- David, Paul A, 1972. "Just How Misleading Are Official Exchange Rate Conversions?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 82(327), pages 979-90, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:92:y:2014:i:1:p:185-197. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.