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The Effects of Age Structure on Economic Growth: An Application of Probabilistic Forecasting in India

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  • Alexia Prskawetz
  • Thomas Kögel
  • Warren C. Sanderson
  • Sergei Scherbov

Abstract

During recent years there has been an increasing awareness of the explanatory power of demographic variables in economic growth regressions. We estimate a new model of the effects of age structure change on economic growth. We use the new model and recent probabilistic demographic projections for India to derive the uncertainty of predicted economic growth rates caused by the uncertainty in demographic developments.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexia Prskawetz & Thomas Kögel & Warren C. Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov, 2009. "The Effects of Age Structure on Economic Growth: An Application of Probabilistic Forecasting in India," VID Working Papers 0403, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
  • Handle: RePEc:vid:wpaper:0403
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    Cited by:

    1. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Fink, Gunther & Finlay, Jocelyn E., 2007. "Does age structure forecast economic growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 569-585.
    2. Justin Doran, 2012. "An analysis of the interdependence of demographic factors, labour effort and economic growth in Ireland," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 39(3), pages 221-237, February.
    3. David E. Bloom, 2011. "Population Dynamics in India and Implications for Economic Growth," PGDA Working Papers 6511, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    4. Jordan, Steven J. & Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Forecasting market returns: bagging or combining?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 102-120.
    5. Ogunjimi, Joshua & Oladipupo, Dauda, 2018. "Dynamics of Demographic Structure and Economic Growth in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 94988, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2018.
    6. Tapas K. Mishra, 2006. "A Further Look into the Demography-based GDP Forecasting Method," Working Papers of BETA 2006-17, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    7. Menashe-Oren, A. & Stecklov, G., 2017. "IFAD RESEARCH SERIES 17 - Population age structure and sex composition in sub-Saharan Africa: a rural-urban perspective," IFAD Research Series 280055, International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD).

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    Keywords

    Economic growth; age structure; probabilistic demographic projections; India;

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